????德國工業巨頭博世集團稱，只要監管能跟上技術前進的步伐，自動駕駛汽車只需五年就應該能開上高速公路。

????博世的看法和特斯拉汽車首席執行官埃隆?穆斯克不謀而合。穆斯克預計，2020年前后汽車全自動行駛技術就會成熟，屆時汽車將不再需要駕駛者的操控。

????對博世來說，這應當意味著向駕駛輔助系統和高級自動駕駛產品的開發投入更多資金，并由此獲得更高的收入。從2011年開始，博世的工程師一直在加利福尼亞州帕羅奧圖和德國阿布施塔特從事這方面的工作。機動車部門是博世在北美的最大業務部門，為汽車、非公路用車、兩輪機動車、航運和鐵路運輸提供技術。

????預剎車和車道偏離警告等駕駛輔助系統的蓬勃發展正在推動汽車行業邁向自動駕駛時代。舉例來說，據博世管理委員會成員德克·霍海森博士介紹，該公司駕駛輔助產品的銷售額正以每年三分之一的速度上升，預計這個領域的銷售額到2016年將突破10億歐元（約10.9億美元）。

????本月早些時候博世公布，2014年該公司機動車業務北美地區銷售額增長近10%，達到80億美元。該業務的客戶包括谷歌、特斯拉汽車和保時捷。博世北美地區并表總銷售額為113億美元，機動車業務占70%以上。

????為滿足需求，博世又聘用了數百名工程師來研究駕駛輔助技術。目前為博世改良駕駛輔助系統的工程師約有2000名，在短短兩年時間里增加了整整700人。

????如果各國的法律框架沒能和技術實現同步，自動駕駛汽車的發展就可能陷入停滯，至少可能變慢。高度自動化的駕駛系統可以處理任何具體情況，駕駛人則可隨時獲得車輛控制權。但按照聯合國1968年《道路交通公約》的規定，開車時使用這種系統在許多國家都不合法。

????在美國，自動駕駛車輛屬于合法事物，因為美國法律從未認定它們違法。但最終，聯邦法規的缺失將成為一個障礙。隨著谷歌、奧迪、戴姆勒和特斯拉等公司開始測試自動駕駛技術，一些州已經自行出臺了規定。如果博世的預言成真，自動駕駛汽車恐怕首先不得不穿越各州各國的規章制度交織而成的大網，而不是在統一的指導原則下迅速起步。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????In just five years, cars should be driving themselves on the freeway, as long as regulations can keep up with the advancing technology, according to German-industrial conglomerate Robert Bosch Group.

????The forecast is in line with Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that the technology for fully autonomous cars—those that require no driver supervision—will be ready by about 2020.

????For Bosch, this should mean deeper investment—and greater revenues—in driver assistance systems, as well as development of advanced automated driving products, something its engineers have been working on since 2011 at locations in Palo Alto, California and Abstatt, Germany. The company’s mobility unit—by far its largest business sector in North America—provides technology for automobiles, as well as off-highway applications, two-wheelers, shipping, and rail transportation.

????The boom in driver assistance systems, such as predictive emergency braking and lane departure warnings, is propelling the industry towards automated driving. For instance, Bosch’s sales in driver assistance systems is already increasing by a third every year, according to Dr. Dirk Hoheisel, a member of Bosch’s board of management. Sales in this field are expected to exceed 1 billion euros (about $1.09 billion) in 2016, Hoheisel says.

????Earlier this month, Bosch reported that its mobility business unit—which has a customer list that includes Google, Tesla Motors, and Porsche—saw sales in North America grow nearly 10% to $8 billion in 2014. The mobility unit accounted for more than 70% of the $11.3 billion in total consolidated sales in the region.

????Bosch has responded to demand by hiring hundreds of engineers to work on driver assistance tech. About 2,000 engineers are working on refining driver assistance systems at Bosch. That’s a good 700 more than just two years ago.

????The progress toward self-driving cars could stall—or at least slow—if countries don’t create a legal framework at the pace of technological development. In many countries, highly automated driving—in which the system can handle all situations in a defined case, but the driver is ready to take the controls—isn’t legal thanks to rules outlined in the Vienna Convention on Road Traffic of 1968.

????In the U.S., self driving cars are legal because they’ve never been outlawed. Eventually, the lack of federal rules will become an obstacle. It’s already prompted some states to come up with their own rules as companies including Google, Audi, Daimler and Tesla test automated driving tech. If Bosch’s prediction is going to come true, automated cars may first have to navigate a tangled web of state-by-state and country-by-country regulations, rather than swiftly take off under unified guidelines.