????即使你不是諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主，也知道正在進(jìn)行的水力壓裂革命對(duì)美國(guó)非常有利。而另一件人們還不太了解的事情是，廉價(jià)的石油和天然氣已經(jīng)讓美國(guó)制造業(yè)成本變得競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力十足。據(jù)波士頓咨詢公司估計(jì)，現(xiàn)在在美國(guó)制造商品的平均成本只比在中國(guó)高5%，比在歐洲各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體還要低10-20%。更令人震驚的是：該公司預(yù)計(jì)，到2018年，美國(guó)制造的成本將比中國(guó)便宜2-3%。

????You don’t need to a Nobel Prize in economics to know that the fracking revolution has been good for the U.S. What’s not so well known is just how competitive cheap oil and gas has made American manufacturing. BCG, the Boston consultancy, estimates the average cost to manufacture goods in the U.S. is now only 5% higher than in China and is actually 10% to 20% lower than in major European economies. Even more striking: BCG projects that by 2018 it will be 2% to 3% cheaper to make stuff here than in China.

????中美制造業(yè)的成本差距正在不斷縮小，部分原因在于中國(guó)的工資水平正在上漲，而美國(guó)公司一直在以比許多國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手更快的速度提高生產(chǎn)效率。不過，其中最大的一個(gè)因素可能是，水力壓裂技術(shù)極大地壓低了美國(guó)鋼鐵、鋁、造紙和石油化工等能源密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)所需的石油和天然氣的價(jià)格。據(jù)波士頓咨詢公司核算，美國(guó)的工業(yè)用電價(jià)格現(xiàn)在要比其他出口大國(guó)低30-50%。

????該公司的大衛(wèi)?吉表示：“考慮到美國(guó)制造商從中國(guó)進(jìn)口貨物時(shí)要面臨航運(yùn)延誤、港口罷工的威脅，以及中國(guó)政府經(jīng)常要求在華營(yíng)商的外國(guó)公司必須在當(dāng)?shù)赝顿Y，與本土企業(yè)建立合資企業(yè)等因素，中美之間5%的成本差異其實(shí)并沒有那么顯著。”

????更低的能源價(jià)格還開啟了新的機(jī)會(huì)。比如，使用天然氣充當(dāng)汽車和卡車的燃料，將降低美國(guó)對(duì)石油進(jìn)口的依賴，并有助于減少溫室氣體排放。天然氣還能轉(zhuǎn)化為氫氣，作為豐田Mirai等新型汽車的燃料。（這家日本汽車巨頭將于今年夏天開始在加州接受這款汽車的訂單。）

????在過去幾年，廉價(jià)的能源已經(jīng)吸引了各行各業(yè)的公司來美投資，投資總額高達(dá)1380億美元。比如，今年春天，石油化工巨頭沙索公司就在路易斯安那州斥資81億美元建起了乙烷裂解爐。而Cheniere等能源公司面向海外出口市場(chǎng)，投資數(shù)十億美元在墨西哥灣建立了液化天然氣終端，在海外，天然氣價(jià)格可能比美國(guó)本土貴上3到4倍。

????至于說美國(guó)的優(yōu)勢(shì)將能保持多久？哈佛商學(xué)院教授邁克爾?波特?cái)y手波士頓咨詢公司，在6月發(fā)表了一篇題為《美國(guó)非常規(guī)能源機(jī)遇》的報(bào)告。這份報(bào)告顯示，美國(guó)的水力壓裂技術(shù)領(lǐng)先其他國(guó)家約15年。一項(xiàng)最具說服力的，可支持這個(gè)論點(diǎn)的數(shù)據(jù)是：美國(guó)擁有101,117口水力壓裂油井；加拿大緊隨其后，擁有16,990口；而相比之下，中國(guó)只有258口水力壓裂油井。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

????審校：任文科

????Part of the reason for the narrowing gap is that wages have been rising in China. And American companies have been boosting their productivity faster than many of their international competitors. But perhaps the single largest factor is that fracking has helped dramatically drive down the price of oil and gas that’s being used in energy intensive industries such as steel, aluminum, paper and petrochemicals. BCG calculates that U.S. industrial electricity prices are now 30% to 50% lower than those of other major exporters.

????“A 5% price discrepancy in manufacturing between China and the US doesn’t amount to much,” says BCG’s David Gee, “when you consider that US manufacturers face the risks of delay when shipping from China, the threat of port strikes, and the local investments and partnerships that Beijing often requires of foreign companies doing business there.”

????Lower energy prices can also open up new opportunities such as a using natural gas to power fleet vehicles and trucks, which would reduce American dependence on foreign oil and cut greenhouse gases. Natural gas can also be converted into hydrogen to power fuel cells like the ones in Toyota’s Mirai passenger car. (The Japanese car giant will start taking orders for the Mirai in California this summer.)

????Over the last few years, cheap energy has encouraged players in various industries to earmark $138 billion for new U.S.-based investments. This spring, for example, the petrochemical giant Sasol started construction on an $8.1 billion ethane cracker at Lake Charles, La. And energy companies like Cheniere are building multi-billion LNG terminals on the Gulf of Mexico to export overseas, where natural gas can be three to four times more expensive than it is in the U.S.

????How long will America’s advantage last? Harvard Business School’s Michael Porter, who along with BCG issued a new report in June called “America’s Unconventional Energy Opportunity,” says that America has about a 15-year lead on other nations when it comes to fracking. The most telling number to make that point? The U.S. has 101,117 fracked wells, followed by Canada’s 16,990. By contrast China has 258.