????對(duì)陷入低谷的中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)來(lái)說(shuō)，最艱難的時(shí)期已經(jīng)過(guò)去了嗎？

????本周一公布的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，北京在內(nèi)的中國(guó)70座大中城市的新房?jī)r(jià)格開始有回暖趨勢(shì)。

????國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局稱，今年4月48個(gè)城市的房?jī)r(jià)環(huán)比下跌，上漲的城市有18個(gè)。盡管市場(chǎng)仍呈負(fù)面態(tài)勢(shì)（48個(gè)城市的平均房?jī)r(jià)跌幅大于18個(gè)城市的漲幅），但比起幾個(gè)月前70個(gè)城市房?jī)r(jià)全線下跌的局面已經(jīng)好轉(zhuǎn)。二手房市場(chǎng)更活躍，房?jī)r(jià)上漲的城市有28個(gè)，下跌的有34個(gè)。

????一線城市反彈趨勢(shì)最明顯，北上廣深的房?jī)r(jià)均環(huán)比上升，二三線城市房?jī)r(jià)則繼續(xù)下滑。這種情況讓政府擔(dān)心，因?yàn)橥@些地區(qū)在開發(fā)新樓盤時(shí)借下大量債務(wù)，而償債能力較弱。

????可以說(shuō)，樓市是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩背后的最大因素，因?yàn)榉康禺a(chǎn)和建筑行業(yè)約占中國(guó)GDP的20%，而且對(duì)鋼筋、水泥和家電等行業(yè)都會(huì)產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)。去年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速僅為7.2%，創(chuàng)20多年新低。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，今年中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速也將低于7%的官方目標(biāo)。

????Is the worst over for China’s bust real estate market?

????Prices for new residential buildings have started to tick up in some the country’s 70 largest cities, including the capital Beijing, according to new figures out Monday.

????The National Bureau of Statistics said that prices in April fell from March’s levels in 48 cities, but rose in 18. While that’s still a largely negative trend (and the prices declines in the 48 were on average bigger than the rises in the 18), it’s still better than the situation looked a couple of months ago, when they were heading down in all 70 cities surveyed. The dynamic was a bit stronger for existing home sales, where prices rose in 28 cities and fell in 34.

????It’s the first-tier cities which are leading the way: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all posted increases from March. But prices continue to fall in second- and third-tier cities. That’s a worry for the government because the regions where they are based are generally less able to carry the debt that they have taken on to develop new projects.

????The housing market is arguably the single biggest factor behind the slowdown in China’s economy, as real estate and construction account for some 20% of gross domestic product, with knock-on effects on everything from steel bars and cement to household appliances. Growth slowed to its lowest annual rate in over 20 years last year, a ‘mere’ 7.2%, and many economists think it will fall short of the government’s target of 7% this year as well.

????不過(guò)，數(shù)據(jù)顯示多項(xiàng)扶持政策或許已開始提振樓市。近幾個(gè)月，央行連續(xù)下調(diào)利率，并采取其他措施鼓勵(lì)銀行放貸；同時(shí)，政府降低了二套房的首付比例。

????商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)也開始抬頭。今年前四個(gè)月，新增銷售面積只下降了3.1%，這是一年多來(lái)的最好業(yè)績(jī)。

????不過(guò)，沒(méi)人認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)已經(jīng)擺脫困境。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)同時(shí)表明，今年1-4月份，開發(fā)商購(gòu)地面積減少了32.7%。也就是說(shuō)，長(zhǎng)期依賴土地出讓收入的地方政府今后將迎來(lái)財(cái)政上的關(guān)鍵考驗(yàn)。但這至少也意味著，樓市過(guò)剩的庫(kù)存也許不久就會(huì)清理完畢。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：夏林

????However, the figures suggest that the market may be starting to respond to a number of policy efforts to support it. In recent months, the central bank has cut interest rates and taken other measures to give banks more leeway to lend, while the government has loosened requirements on down-payments for second homes.

????The commercial property market is also picking up. Sales of new floor space fell by only 3.1% in the first four months of the year, their strongest performance in over a year.

????However, no-one is pretending that the sector is out of the woods yet. The NBS’s figures also show that the amount of land bought by real estate companies for development fell by 32.7% in the same period. That means crunch times ahead for local governments that have depended on such sales to finance their budgets. But at least it also means that the overhang of unsold properties might vanish before too long.