????誰都沒有預料到這樣一個結果。

????首先上場的是搭載了增程式汽油發動機的雪佛蘭Volt汽車。作為它的生產商，行業巨頭通用汽車公司幾乎具備無限的工程資源。Volt也是通用汽車副董事長鮑伯?盧茨親自拍板的產品，一系列營銷活動和龐大的經銷商網絡為它提供了強有力的支持。這款售價4萬美元的油電混合動力轎車似乎必將獲得成功。

????特斯拉汽車隨后登場。作為汽車行業的新生力量，它此前幾乎沒有任何汽車的設計、工藝和制造經驗，其電池技術也沒有經過驗證。（和其他汽車廠商不同，特斯拉使用的是幾千塊鋰鐵電池構成的電池組，和筆記本電腦使用的電池沒什么不同。）

????特斯拉Roadster還搭載了一些新鮮的功能，還大膽地設定了一個處于豪華品牌上游價位的價格。另外，特斯拉也沒有自己的經銷商網絡。也就是說，這家年輕的公司將憑借自身力量銷售售價10萬美元的電動汽車。

????你也知道這兩款車型的競爭結果。成功希望渺茫的特斯拉越賣越好，生產的汽車被搶購一空。特斯拉還在沙漠里建起了一座大型的電池工廠，另外它正準備推出它的第三款電動車型——一款跨界SUV。行業媒體《汽車新聞》的數據顯示，從年初到四月末，特斯拉今年已經售出了6800臺Model S轎車。

????與此同時，雪佛蘭Volt似乎正在邁向汽車業歷史的垃圾箱（就像通用的EV-1和整個Saturn部門一樣）。工藝上“用力過度”和定價過高是它的兩塊短板，它的“創新技術”也走入了死胡同，到現在仍然沒有任何廠家跟風模仿就是證明。通用最近給出了5000每元的降價力度以刺激銷量，但Volt從年初至今的銷量仍僅有2779臺。

????為什么通用和特斯拉的命運發生了逆轉？Volt這款誕生于最近一次“大衰退”期間的產品，是否受到了不可控因素的影響？抑或，特斯拉恰好抓住了消費者對氣候變化的關心，從而一擊成功？以下有三種看法：

????·Volt和破產前的通用犯了同一個毛病。這款由公司高層拍腦袋決定的車型，本來希望迎合每一類消費者的需要，但最終幾乎沒有一個人感到滿意。它的售價貴，質量重，車速慢。而特斯拉的Model S基本上是天才創始人埃隆?馬斯克一人的作品，因為馬斯克就喜歡這種造型優美的高端轎車，最終獲得各方交口稱贊，大獲成功。

????·憑借安靜如耳語的動力系統和快如脫兔的加速，Model S為車主提供了獨特的駕駛體驗。相較之下，Volt幾乎沒有什么樂趣可言。它希望同時解決消費者對燃油經濟性和氣候變化的關切，但最終卻像一杯胡蘿卜加甘藍奶昔一樣索然無味。

????·盡管售價高昂的特斯拉汽車自身也有一些局限（如續航里程短、充電站少、沒有經銷商網絡等），但它可以帶來充沛的心靈享受，并由此開辟了一個全新的市場。而在各方面均有妥協的Volt，似乎只是為那些既想享受電動車的好處，又不打算完全依賴電池動力的人準備的。

????通用和特斯拉都在積極準備下一輪的競爭。通用似乎鐵了心要讓Volt獲得成功，不久它將推出2016款Volt汽車，這款經過全新設計的汽車將具備更出色的性能和50英里純電動續航里程。通用還計劃在后年推出一款名叫Bolt的全電動車型，它的續航里程將達到200英里。由于現在還不知道消費者的態度會有怎樣的改變，或是未來兩年內通用是否會實現工藝上的突破，現在還很難判斷這兩款新車將給市場帶來怎樣的沖擊。

????與此同時，特斯拉必將會推出已經兩度延期的電動SUV，同時它還要遏制已經超過預期的燒錢速度。隨著車型的增加，特斯拉的日子也將變得更加復雜。但特斯拉的成功應該會激勵很多初出茅廬的商人，讓他們有膽量挑戰和顛覆傳統智慧。（財富中文網）

????譯者：樸成奎

????審校：任文科

????It is an outcome no one could have predicted.

????In one corner was the Chevy Volt with the clever gasoline engine range-extender. The product of an industry giant with nearly unlimited engineering resources, the Volt bore the imprimatur of GM’s Bob Lutz, was supported by a comprehensive marketing effort, and distributed through a broad dealer network. With a price of $40,000, the gas-electric hybrid seemed destined for popular success.

????In the other corner was Tesla, an ego-driven upstart of a company with exactly zero experience in the design, engineering or manufacture of a new car and using unproven battery technology. (Unlike other automakers, Tesla uses thousands of lithium-ion battery cells, like those found in laptop computers.)

????Festooned with unfamiliar features, the electric Tesla Roadster was daringly priced at the upper range of luxury brands. To make its adoption even chancier, no dealers were involved; the young company would sell its $100,000 cars by itself.

????You know how it turned out. Tesla, the long-shot, goes from strength to strength, selling all the cars it can make while it builds a battery mega-factory in the desert and prepares to launch its third electric model, a crossover SUV. Through April, Automotive News figures show that Tesla has sold 6,800 units of the Model S this year.

????The Chevrolet Volt, meanwhile, seems headed to the dustbin of automotive history, like GM’s original EV-1 and the entire Saturn division. Over-engineered and over-priced, its “innovative” technology appears to be a dead end that has been imitated by exactly no one. GM recently cut the Volt’s price by $5,000 in an effort to boost sales, which have totaled a mere 2,779 cars this year.

????What accounts for the reversal of fortune? Was the Volt, launched in the midst of the latest Great Recession, buffeted by forces beyond its control? Or did Tesla catch lightning in a bottle as consumers embraced the idea of climate change? Three thoughts:

????The Volt suffered from the same ills that sent GM spiraling into bankruptcy. In attempting to accommodate every constituency, the committee- engineered car ended up satisfying almost no one. It was expensive, heavy, and slow. Tesla’s Model S, on the other hand, is essentially the creation of a single brainiac, company co-founder Elon Musk, who built the kind of sleek, upscale sedan he would buy for his own family—and succeeded on almost all fronts.

????With its whisper-quiet powertrain and jack-rabbit acceleration, the Model S provides a unique driving experience. The Volt is relatively joyless. It makes fuel economy and climate-change concerns about as much fun as a carrot-and-kale milkshake.

????Musk created an entirely new market for high-priced cars that are limited in their specifications (short range, few charging stations, no dealer network) but that deliver bountiful psychic benefits. The compromised Volt, on the other hand, seemed designed for drivers who wanted the benefits of an EV without fully committing to the concept of battery power

????Both sides are preparing for the next round. GM seems determined to make the Volt a success and is launching a second-generation design with better performance and a 50-mile electric range for the 2016 model year. A companion car, the all-electric Chevy Bolt with a promised 200-mile range, arrives a year later. Absent some unforeseen shift in customer attitudes or engineering breakthrough, it is difficult to see them making much of a dent in the market.

????Tesla, meanwhile, must launch its twice-delayed SUV while staunching a faster-than expected cash burn. Life will get more complicated as its portfolio grows. But Tesla’s success to date should encourage every upstart business person who dares to challenge the conventional wisdom with a disruptive proposition.