????風險投資家非常愛說一些經驗之談，甚至整個創業界都流行著一些金科玉律。最經典的莫過于一個關于創業時機的經驗之談：“唯一比犯錯更嚴重的就是過于超前。”因創業理念太超前而失敗的例子簡直數不勝數。不過自從“.com”泡沫破裂后，許多當年失敗得一塌糊涂的點子，又以其它形式重新煥發了青春，成為生機勃勃的企業。

????這些創業理念之所以成功復蘇，也因為它們現在具備了一些關鍵的要素。首先來了解一串簡單的數字：2000年，美國只有43%的人使用互聯網。如今美國網民人數已占總人口的86%，移動互聯網用戶更是達到美國總人口的一半以上。也就是說，網絡創業公司的受眾群體要比以往大得多。

????另外，聯邦快遞和UPS等物流網絡也比90年代末更發達、更高效、價格更低。最后，隨著云計算和開源軟件的興起，網絡創業的成本從幾百萬美元減少到幾千美元甚至更低。這大大降低了創業的風險，也就意味著早期階段的創業失敗不會導致投資人損失數百萬美金。

????以下是一些當年因過于超前而失敗的例子。

????Venture investors are fond of their truisms, to the point that the startup world is riddled with clichés. But few cut deeper than the one about timing: “The only thing worse than being wrong is being early.” It’s impossible to count the number of startups which failed because the world wasn’t ready for them yet. Since the dotcom bubble, many of the era’s biggest flops have been revived in different forms to become viable businesses.

????Today’s revivals have a few key things going for them this time around. For starters, it’s a matter of simple numbers: In 2000, only 43% of Americans were using the Internet. Today, 86% of the country is online and more than half of the population carries the Internet around in their pocket. The addressable audience for a Web startup is much larger.

????Further, logistics networks from the likes of FedEx FDX -0.54% and UPS UPS -0.05% are more developed, more efficient, and more cost-effective than they were in the late 1990s. Lastly, thanks to cloud computing and open source software, the cost of starting up has shrunk from millions of dollars to hundreds of thousands or less. This lowers the stakes for starting a business, which means early-stage failures aren’t costing investors millions.

????Below, several good ideas which were simply ahead of their time.

????當日送達

????Uber已經把智能手機變成了生活的遙控器。只要按個按鈕，你想要的幾乎任何東西都可以送到家門——比如酒水、美甲、鮮花乃至大麻。亞馬遜和谷歌現在也提供了當日送達服務，包括Uber在內的不計其數的創業公司緊隨其后。

????最早提供同日送達服務的，是Web 1.0時代的知名網站Kozmo.com和Webvan。但Kozmo.com在“.com”泡沫破裂時損失了數億美元，Webvan更是讓投資人的10多億美金打了水漂。失敗的原因在于，他們的服務不賺錢。Kozmo.com的聯合創始人如今又通過MaxDelivery.com讓這個理念起死回生，雖然MaxDelivery的用戶群只有不到10萬人，但從2005年至今，它卻能依賴自身盈利實現緩慢而穩定的增長，并且能養活130名員工。如今有這么多創業公司在做當日送達服務，足以證明這個點子并不壞，只是當時時機未到。

????Same-day delivery

????Uber has turned smartphones into remote controls for life. Press a button and just about anything you want will show up—booze, groceries, manicures, flowers, even weed. Amazon AMZN 0.87% and Google GOOG -1.23% now offer same-day delivery, with countless startup—including Uber—hot on their heels.

????Same-day delivery was the premise of famous Web 1.0 blow-ups Kozmo.com and Webvan. Kozmo.com lost hundreds of millions in value in the dotcom crash; Webvan lost over a billion in investor money. They failed because they didn’t make money on their services. Today, Kozmo.com’s co-founder has revived the idea with MaxDelivery.com which has a small customer base of under 100,000, but has grown slowly and steadily since 2005 on its own profits, supporting a staff of 130. The recent influx of new startups offering anything you want on-demand proves that the idea wasn’t bad, but the timing was.