????《財富》雜志在去年11月采訪漢莎航空首席執行官卡斯滕?斯波爾時，該公司剛因為全球經濟疲軟和產能過剩調低了自己的收益預期。這家德國航空公司在短途航班市場遭遇了易捷航空和瑞安航空等廉價運營商的擠壓，在長途航班上又面臨著一眾新興中東運營商的挑戰。飛行員罷工更是給漢莎航空雪上加霜，使其付出了數億美元的代價。

????不過縱覽公司整體運營情況，這位當時才上任六個月的首席執行官指出，漢莎旗下的廉價航空運營商德國之翼是一個亮點。

????他說：“我們的廉價航空子公司德國之翼做得非常成功，超乎公司預期。”確實，漢莎航空正把更多的歐洲客流從自身的旗艦品牌移向德國之翼和另一家廉價航空子公司歐洲之翼，因為其運營成本更低。斯波爾對《財富》表示，他希望2002年成立的德國之翼能在2015年盈利：“看起來我們很有可能達成這個目標。”

????但在本周二，我們不由懷疑這個預測是否還能實現。

????24日，德國之翼運營的一架空客A320客機從巴塞羅那起飛，前往杜塞爾多夫，途中墜毀于法國阿爾卑斯山區。預計機上的150名乘客全部罹難。

????斯波爾周二在Twitter上表示，對漢莎航空而言，這是“黑暗的一天”。公司官網稱：“對于這起墜機事件，德國之翼和漢莎航空的每個人都感到深深的震驚和悲哀。我們將與機上乘客和機組人員的家人和朋友一起哀悼和祈禱?！?/p>

????當被問到墜機事件將對公司業務產生哪些影響時，漢莎航空發言人表示，公司首先要做的是對墜機事件進行全面的調查，并對機上乘客和機組人員的親友提供“他們所需的一切關懷和援助”。

????漢莎航空的股價在周二一度暴跌4.6%，收盤時跌幅止于1.7%。

????當這樣的空難發生后，坊間都會推測其對公司業務的長期影響。不過一位行業顧問兼前航空公司高管羅伯特?曼恩表示，盡管大多數墜機事件令人悲傷，被媒體頭條大幅報道，但“對運營商的未來業務基本不會造成影響”。

????也有少數例外，主要出現在那些“有跡象表明公司出現了系統性問題，或是失職”的情況。曼恩指出，瓦盧杰航空就是因為后一種情況走向了衰亡。

????1996年，瓦盧杰航空592號航班起飛后不久就遭遇失火，墜毀于佛羅里達州大沼澤地，機上110人全部罹難?？针y調查發現，瓦盧杰的外包商在飛機貨艙內非法放置了氧氣罐，從而導致了這場悲劇。曼恩表示：“這很諷刺，因為這甚至不是瓦盧杰的錯，他們只是用了一個失職的供應商。”

????盡管如此，瓦盧杰航空也無法動搖審查結果，打消悲劇事件產生的負面影響。美國聯邦航空管理局對瓦盧杰所有飛機下了禁飛令，這家運營商最終精簡機隊后重新開始運營，但他們再也無法挽回客戶群體，并最終與小公司穿越航空合并，如今一起化作了美國西南航空公司的一部分。

????還有一個例子是馬來西亞航空公司。該公司接連遭遇了2014年3月的MH370航班失聯和7月的MH17在烏克蘭墜機，乘客數量急劇下降。馬來西亞政府在2014年8月將其私有化，試圖恢復這家公司的財務健康。

????從有關周二這起墜機事故的報道來看，導致德國之翼飛機墜毀的原因尚不清楚。曼恩指出，德國之翼的機組與漢莎航空其他機組一樣，都由漢莎航空技術公司進行維護。這是航空業最大的維修公司之一。漢莎航空上一起致命空難發生在20年前，而德國之翼在本周二之前的安全記錄堪稱完美。

????曼恩表示，漢莎航空是“一家高品質的公司”。其價值怎么夸張都不為過。他說，每位乘客都想要便宜的價格，但“有一樣東西沒人會拿來換錢，那就是安全。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：嚴匡正

????When Fortune spoke with Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr in November, the company had just scaled back its earnings targets due to a weaker global economy and overcapacity. The German airline is being squeezed on short-haul flights by discount carriers like Easyjet and Ryan Air and by booming Middle Eastern carriers on long-haul routes. It’s been also been plagued by pilot strikes, which have cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars.

????But when surveying his airline’s overall operations, the CEO, who’d been on the job just six months at the time of his conversation with Fortune, pointed to its discount arm Germanwings as a bright spot.

????“Our low cost subsidiary Germanwings [has] been a great success; bigger than we expected,” he said. Indeed, Lufthansa is in the process of shifting more of its European traffic from its flagship brand to Germanwings and its other discount subsidiary, Eurowings, because of their lower operating costs. Spohr told Fortune that he expected Germanwings—which launched in 2002—to be profitable in 2015. “It very much looks like we will be meeting that target.”

????On Tuesday, it was easy to wonder if that still holds true.

????An Airbus A320 jetliner operated by Germanwingscrashed in the French Alps on its way from Barcelona to Dusseldorf on Tuesday morning. All 150 people on board are presumed dead.

????Spohr Tweeted on Tuesday that it was a “dark day” for Lufthansa. The company said on its website, “Everyone at Germanwings and Lufthansa is deeply shocked and saddened by these events. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of the passengers and the crew members.”

????When asked about the business implications of the crash, a Lufthansa spokeswoman said that its highest priority was conducting a full investigation of the crash and providing the families and friends of the plane’s passengers and crew with “all the care and assistance they need.”

????Shares of Lufthansa dipped as much as 4.6% in European trading on Tuesday and closed 1.7% lower.

????When such airline catastrophes occur, there’s always speculation about what it will mean for the businesses involved for the long-term. Robert Mann, an industry consultant and a former airline executive, says that most plane crashes, as tragic and headline-grabbing as they may be, “have very little impact on a carrier’s ongoing business.”

????There are a few exceptions, mainly in cases where “there is an indication of systemic issues or incompetence.” Mann points to ValuJet as an example of a carrier that was wrecked by the latter.

????In 1996, ValuJet Flight 592 caught fire shortly after takeoff and crashed into the Florida Everglades, killing all 110 passengers that were on board. An investigation into the crash determined that a ValuJet subcontractor that had illegally loaded oxygen tanks into the plane’s cargo hold was responsible for the tragedy “It’s ironic, since it wasn’t even ValuJet’s fault; it just happened to use a vendor who was incompetent,” Mann says.

????But still, ValuJet couldn’t shake the scrutiny and fallout from the tragedy. After the Federal Aviation Administration grounded all ValuJet planes, the carrier eventually returned to the air with a reduced fleet, but it never rebuilt its customer base and ultimately merged with the smaller AirTran Airways, which is now a part of Southwest Airlines.

????Then there’s Malaysia Airlines, which saw a drastic drop-off in passengers following the disappearance of Flight 370 in March 2014 and the fatal downing of Flight 17 in Ukraine in July. The Malaysian government took the airline private in August in an attempt to restore its financial health.

????Based on reports of Tuesday’s plane crash, it’s not clear what caused the Germanwings aircraft to go down. Mann notes that Lufthansa services its Germanwings fleet, alongside the rest of its planes, at Lufthansa Technik, one of the airline industry’s largest maintenance providers. Lufthansa’s last fatal accident occurred 20 years ago, and Germanwings’ safety record was perfect until Tuesday.

????Lufthansa is “a quality organization”, Mann says. The value of that attribute can’t be overstated. Every airline passenger is after a good price, but “the one thing people will not trade away is safety,” he says.