????汽油價格低迷，失業率也不斷下降，這樣的雙重利好可能讓美國消費者歡欣鼓舞，但很大一部分美國公司并不這么樂觀。

????周二，世界大型企業聯合會宣布，美國消費者信心指數達到了2007年8月份以來的最高水。但就在當天上午，美國股市暴跌，原因是卡特彼勒和杜邦等大公司披露的業績令人失望，輝瑞制藥和百時美施貴寶等企業做出了悲觀預期。

????由于美國經濟走勢較強，再加上歐洲央行推出債券購買計劃，美元迅速升值，這是美國公司盈利達不到預期或者下調業績展望的原因之一。美元匯率上升意味著美國公司的海外競爭力下降。

????但卡特彼勒主要受到了石油及其他大宗商品價格暴跌的不利影響。能源和礦業公司因此削減投資，而這些投資正是卡特彼勒的主要銷售收入來源。

????世界上其他地區的經濟遠不像美國經濟那樣前景光明，這也是導致業績令人失望的原因。中國和歐洲最近都下調了經濟增長預期。此外，巴西、土耳其和俄羅斯等新興市場也因為油價下跌和外商投資起伏不定而陷入困境。

????卡特彼勒董事長兼首席執行官道格?奧伯赫爾曼在今早發布的新聞稿中表示，該公司預計2015年銷售額將減少9%左右，最主要的原因就是油價急劇下挫。

????但該公司也指出了其他原因，如其他大宗商品價格下跌，歐洲經濟增長緩慢以及中國經濟走勢相對放緩。

????卡特彼勒副總裁麥克?德瓦爾特在上午的分析師電話會議上說：“歐洲經濟增長確實不可觀。而像巴西和中國等發展中國家則遇到了挑戰。”要點在于，油價下跌的部分原因正是美國以外的經濟體增長放緩，特別是中國。

????卡特彼勒的業績表現往往被視為全球經濟晴雨表，因為該公司銷售的工程和采礦設備發揮著全球經濟增長引擎的作用。卡特彼勒前景變差，意味著今后全球經濟可能陷入困局。

????與之相反，美國經濟對海外市場的依賴度不高，出口只占美國GDP的10%，而消費支出所占的比重超過70%。因此，雖然海外市場低迷肯定不利于美國經濟，但也只影響卡特彼勒這些倚重出口的公司，大多數美國本土勞動者和企業主并未對此感到擔心。

????在美國，就業和經濟強勁增長，通脹處于低點，能源價格低迷，在這些因素的共同作用下，2015年應該成為美國經濟復蘇最為迅猛的一年。只要歐洲還能支撐下去，中國經濟不過快滑坡，則海外的問題可能不會影響美國。（財富中文網）

????譯者： Charlie

????審稿：Sissi

????The American consumer may be rejoicing over the dual tailwinds of cheap gas prices and falling unemployment, but much of Corporate America isn’t so sanguine.

????On the same morning that the Conference Board announced that consumer confidence reached its highest level since August 2007, the stock market took a nose dive, driven by disappointing earnings announcements by big-name companies like Caterpillar CAT -7.18% and Dupont DD -1.25% , and downbeat outlooks from the likes of Pfizer PFE -0.61% and Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY -0.75% .

????The missed earnings and revised expectations are due in part to a rapidly appreciating dollar, which is being driven up by the relative strength of the U.S. economy as well as the announcement of central bank bond buying in Europe. A more expensive dollar means that U.S. companies are less competitive abroad.

????But Caterpillar in particular has been negatively affected by the sharp drop in the price of oil and other commodities. The drops have led energy and mining companies to reduce their investment in the kind of accounts for the bulk of Caterpillar’s sales.

????The disappointing news can also be hung on the fact that the rest of the world’s economic outlook isn’t nearly as rosy as it is in the U.S. Both China and Europe have recently reduced their growth forecasts. Meanwhile, emerging markets like Brazil, Turkey, and Russia are reeling amid falling oil prices and whipsawing foreign investment.

????In a press release this morning, Caterpillar Chairman and CEO Doug Oberhelman said that the sharp decline in the price of oil is the single biggest factor contributing to its prediction that sales will fall roughly 9% in 2015.

????But the company did not discount the impact of falling prices in other commodities, in addition to slow growth in Europe, and relatively slow growth in China.

????“We’re not seeing any decent growth out of Europe,” said Mike DeWalt, a Caterpillar vice president said in a conference call this morning with analysts. “The developing countries like Brazil and China, are, shall we say, challenged.”

????It’s important to remember that the decline in the price of oil is partly due to slower growth abroad and in China in particular.

????Caterpillar’s performance is often seen as a gauge of the health of the global economy because it sells the sort of equipment—construction and mining—that functions as an engine of global economic growth. Caterpillar’s diminished outlook suggests the potential for trouble ahead.

????The U.S. economy, by contrast, is not highly dependent on sales abroad—U.S. GDP is composed of just 10% exports, while consumer spending makes up north of 70%. So, while weakness abroad certainly isn’t good for the American economy and it is a bad sign for export-heavy companies like Caterpillar, it’s not something that should worry most workers or business owners stateside.

????In the U.S., strong job and GDP growth, low inflation, and the jolt of cheap energy prices should all conspire to make 2015 the strongest year yet in the economic recovery. As long as Europe is able to muddle along and China’s growth doesn’t drop off the table too sharply, the struggles abroad will likely steer clear of America’s shores.