????如何突破資源限制以實現經濟增長，是全球經濟面臨的核心挑戰。如果我們不采取任何措施來解決當前的困局，那么到2050年，對稀缺資源（比如有機物、化石能源和多種金屬）的總需求量有望達到1300億噸，遠遠超過2014年500億噸的需求量。哪怕對科技創新的樂觀預期成為現實，全球經濟的資源生產量也不大可能超過800億噸，也就是說，到了2050年，全球的資源缺口將達到400億噸左右。這種短缺將導致世界各國及企業暴露在巨大的風險之下，而資源短缺問題的解決，有賴于循環經濟發揮作用。

????循環經濟背后的理念很簡單：始終推動資源發揮最大的價值，消滅浪費，使資源“永遠夠所有人用”。在討論循環經濟時，浪費的概念要比單純的物理垃圾更加廣泛，它還指產品生命周期的終止，以及市場中大量利用率不足的產品和資產。例如，一個被丟棄的產品如果沒有回收利用，就是一種浪費；提前終結一個產品的使用壽命或閑置不用，也是一種浪費。比如說，一輛普通的汽車只有5%到10%的時間被使用。在普通家庭中，有80%的家庭用品每月只被使用一次。

????但如果使用了正確的商業模式，產品停留在經濟中的時間可以比今天延長好幾倍。通過創新性的分享模式，從汽車到消費品，所有產品的利用率可能會提高十倍之多。但對于企業來說，這究竟意味著什么呢？

????不妨設想一下：單單美國這一個國家，就有近2億部智能手機。智能手機是一種高度復雜的產品，其中含有大量化學和金屬元素。但隨著科技進步的腳步加快，智能手機的平均壽命也在逐步縮短。如果智能手機是以模塊化的方式設計的，各個部件可以輕易地組裝和拆解呢？如果手機采用開源設計方式，那又會是怎樣的情形呢？消費者就可以購買并使用一部手機的核心部分（框架、屏幕和外殼）達10年之久，在這期間，他可以根據個人需求頻繁升級它的功能（如攝像頭、內存和處理器），而不是每兩年就買一部新手機。那么不想要的零部件怎么辦？可以通過在線平臺將它們賣給其他想要的消費者。

????這樣一來，在生命周期結束時，手機就可以很容易地拆解回收，變成有價值的金屬。一個循環經濟產業和消費者生態系統由此形成，它包括圍繞銷售手機核心部件與零部件、促成硬件市場、手機翻新、回收利用等環節構建的一系列業務模式。在手機的產品生命周期中，收益會翻上好幾番，然而資源利用只增長了一點或幾乎沒有增長。這只是循環經濟增長模式的創新潛能之一。

????那么，怎樣才能形成循環經濟呢？我們確定了五種商業模式，包括將產品作為服務，以及建立一個能夠培養分享社區的平臺等等。我們也發現了十項技術，尤其是數字技術，它們也能促進這種轉型。比如最近大熱的AirBnB和Uber等公司，他們所從事的業務如果沒有社交、移動和“機器對機器”通訊等技術作為支撐，幾乎是不可能實現的。這些技術使得供應商、用戶和產品能夠通過復雜的網絡進行互動，而不需要企業投入成本高昂的現場服務或設備投資。

????好消息是，在我們即將出版的新書中所調查的這些企業、模式和技術顯示，循環經濟可以為許多部門的企業帶來極大的生產率提升，幅度最高可達四倍，因此足以解決2050年前可能出現的400億噸資源缺口。考慮到當前制造企業的材料成本往往高達總成本的40%，而人工成本一般不超過20%，因而這絕對是一種有益的競爭優勢。

????我們認為，事實上，大規模循環經濟所能帶來的經濟效益目前被嚴重低估了——相關內容我們會在即將上市的新書中詳細討論。

????從宏觀層面上，這些都是利好消息。我們現在需要的，是各個部門都要研究出企業、消費者與政府攜手推動這種轉型的辦法。目前在這方面已經取得了一些進步。比如本周在瑞士達沃斯召開的世界經濟論壇就頒發了一項“循環經濟獎”。除了循環經濟之外，還有什么方式能更好地預示著全球資本主義邁進新篇章呢？（財富中文網）

????作者Peter Lacy為埃森哲可持續服務董事總經理，JakobRutqvist為埃森哲可持續服務“循環經濟”全球活動領導人。其新書《變廢為寶》（From Waste to Wealth）將于3月出版。

????譯者：樸成奎

????審校：任文科

????The core challenge for the global economy is to decouple economic growth from resource constraints. If nothing is done to address the current situation, total demand for constrained resource stocks (like biomass, fossil energy, and many metals) is expected to reach 130 billion tons by 2050. That’s up from 50 billion in 2014. Even with an optimistic forecast for technological innovation, the economy is unlikely to be able to produce more than 80 billion tons, leaving a shortfall of around 40 billion tons by 2050. Such shortages will expose countries and companies to significant risks. That’s where the circular economy comes into play.

????The idea behind the Circular Economy is a simple one: keep resources at their highest possible level of value at all times, eliminate the very idea of waste and leave ‘enough for all forever.’ Waste in this context is broader than physical rubbish. It also refers to product end-of-life as well as the enormous under-utilization of products and assets in markets. For example, a discarded product that is not recycled is a waste, but so is ending the working life of a product prematurely or letting it sit idle. A typical car, for example, is used only 5% to 10% of the time and as much as 80% of the things stored in a typical home are used only once a month.

????But with the right business model, products could stay in the economy many times longer than today, and utilization rates of everything from cars to consumer goods could increase up to ten times by the use of innovative sharing models. But what’s in it for business?

????Consider this. There are nearly 200 million smart phone users in the U.S. alone. Smart phones are highly sophisticated products containing a multitude of chemical elements and metals. But the average lifetime of a smartphone is going down all the time as the speed of technological development charges on. What if a smartphone were designed in a modular way where components could easily be assembled and disassembled? What if the design was open source? A customer could now buy and use the phone’s core (frame, screen and casing) over 10 years instead of two, while frequently upgrading its functionality (e.g. camera, memory and processor) according to personal desires. What about unwanted components? They could be traded on an online platform to other customers desiring them.

????At end-of-life the phone would be easy to disassemble and recycle for valuable metals and minerals. You now have a circular business and consumer ecosystem with a range of business models around selling the core and components, facilitating hardware marketplaces, refurbishing, reclaiming and recycling. Over the lifecycle of the phone itself, revenue generation will increase multiple times with little or no growth in resource use. This is just one of the transformative potentials of circular models to economic growth.

????What is enabling the circular economy? We have identified five business models that include thinking about your product as a service and creating a platform to foster sharing communities. We’ve also found 10 technologies, in particular digital ones, which are enabling the transition. Consider the much-touted companies AirBnB and Uber. What they’ve managed to do would hardly be possible without technologies like social, mobile and machine-to-machine communication. These technologies enable suppliers, users and products to interact in complex networks without the need for costly field service or equipment investments by the companies.

????The good news is that the companies, models and techniques we have surveyed as part of an upcoming book demonstrate that the circular economy can represent massive productivity gains for companies in a range of sectors of up to four times, which is enough to tackle the estimated 40 billion ton material shortage we’ll reach by 2050. That’s not a bad competitive advantage when you consider that in a typical modern manufacturing company materials make up around 40 percent of total costs, compared to less than 20 percent for labour.

????Extrapolate this out, and we predict that the huge economic gains the circular economy can produce at scale are in fact significantly underestimated—something we set out in detail in our upcoming book.

????This is all excellent news from the macro level. What we need now is sector-by-sector pathways on how companies and consumers can work together with government. Progress is already being made. Consider the impressive circular economy work being done bythe winners of the inaugural Circulars Awards, announced this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos. What better way to mark the arrival of a new chapter in global capitalism?