????菲律賓會欣喜不已；而挪威，很不幸，將面臨一段艱難時光。

????這就是牛津經濟研究院的兩項發現。該機構最近正在研究低油價對世界經濟的影響，而且認為自己已經找到了答案。

????牛津經濟研究院這篇報告名為《石油百科》。它的開篇寫道：“本報告的作用正如題目所示，旨在讓人們全面地了解油價下跌所能帶來的影響。”作者寫道，如果有人在這篇報告里找不到自己想要的東西，他們將很樂意提供這篇共17頁、含有11個變量的數據表（我拿到了這份資料，它確實很全面）。

????本文頂端的那張圖便來自于這篇報告中的數據，它反映了低油價事件中損失最大以及獲利最多的國家。對世界上大多數國家來說，油價低是件好事。大多數國家都會受益。而且許多受益國目前就可以對此加以利用，比如法國、巴西和中國。同時，俄羅斯、沙特以及挪威（沒錯，是挪威）的處境相當嚴峻。不過，就算合在一起，受損國在全球經濟中的比重也不大。

????要說明一下，這張圖體現的是2015年的情形，而且其前提是油價為每桶40美元。也就是說，該油價比當前的水平更低一些，而且需要在這個價位上保持一段時間。同時，為什么菲律賓的表現會大大超出其他國家，我們很難給出理由。我詢問了一位參與此項研究的經濟學家，他也解釋不了。的確，菲律賓不是產油國，或者說石油產量不高；它還是個島國，得靠進口來滿足國內需求。然而，按照牛津經濟研究院的模型，低油價給另一個島國日本帶來的益處就非常少。

????對此，其中的一個解釋是，該機構考慮了油價對貨幣政策的潛在影響。油價滑坡會帶動通脹下行，菲律賓有可能借此下調利率（目前為4%）。日本的利率已經低得不能再低，因此通脹的減輕不會有什么提振作用。此外，發展中國家的效率較低，因此相對于其人口而言，菲律賓的石油需求較高。

????因此，我們在看待這些數據時應持保留態度。但該報告的主題似乎是準確的，那就是總的來說，油價下跌后全球局勢看起來相當好。

????那么，市場為何如此排斥油價下跌呢？油價下降造成的損失集中在石油和天然氣行業，或者說受損企業一般都是大型公司。很明顯，埃克森等公司將受到打擊。同時，低油價的有利影響覆蓋了整個消費領域。至于哪些公司將從中受益，我們很難給出定論。此外，牛津經濟研究院的模型并未考慮可能出現的金融危機。也就是說，如果集中在俄羅斯身上的問題影響到了其他金融市場，就像1998年那樣，麻煩就可能變大。

????這項研究還表明，市場的負面反應有過度之嫌。實際上，油價下降可能為美國貢獻了近1%的GDP，并有可能讓美國的經濟增長率提高0.25個百分點。這是件好事。然而在目前，市場似乎忽略了這一點。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????審稿：李翔

????The Philippines is going to crush it. And Norway, unfortunately, is in for some hard times.

????That’s just two of the findings from research firm Oxford Economics, which recently set out to determine what cheap oil would mean for the world’s economy. And they think they figured it out.

????Oxford’s report is titled “Oil-ipedia!” and says at the top, “This note does what it says on the tin—it provides much of what you need to about the impact of oil price declines.” And the authors write that if you don’t see what you want, they will be happy to send you their 17-page, 11-variable spreadsheet. (I’ve got it. It’s comprehensive.)

????The chart at the top of this article is from data in the report and it looks at what countries will lose and gain the most from cheap oil. For most countries around the world, cheap oil is a good thing. Most countries benefit. And many of the countries getting a boost could use it these days: France, Brazil, and China. Meanwhile, the pain in Russia, Saudi Arabia, and, yes, Norway, is pretty severe. Still, even combined, the net losers do not make up a large part of the world’s economy.

????Some caveats: This chart is based on what will happen in 2015 if oil is at $40 a barrel. So prices would have to drop a bit more from their current levels and stay there for a while. Also, it’s hard to determine why the Philippines does so much better than everyone else. I asked one of the economists who worked on Oxford’s research, and he couldn’t explain. Yes, the Philippines doesn’t produce oil, or a lot of it, and it’s an island nation that has to import what it wants. But Japan, another island nation, gets a very little boost from low oil prices in Oxford’s model.

????One explanation is that Oxford includes the effect that oil prices could have on monetary policy. Lower oil prices would cause inflation to drop and potentially allow the Philippines to lower its 4% interest rate. Japan’s interest rates are already as low as they can go, so no boost from lower inflation there. What’s more, developing nation’s are less efficient, so the Philippines has a greater demand for oil relative to its population.

????So, take the data with a grain of salt. But the general thesis appears to be accurate: A world with lower oil generally looks pretty good.

????Then why have markets reacted so negatively to the drop in oil? The losses from lower oil prices are concentrated in the oil and gas sector and generally among larger companies. And it’s pretty clear that Exxon XOM 1.01% and some others are going to take a hit. Meanwhile, the gains from low oil prices are spread out to consumers everywhere. Which companies will benefit is harder to determine. And Oxford’s model doesn’t factor in potential financial crises. So, if Russia’s concentrated problems boil over, as they did in 1998, to other financial markets, then you could see wider problems.

????Oxford’s research also suggests that the markets appear to be overreacting negatively. In fact, lower oil prices could add nearly 1 percentage point to U.S. GDP, potentially increasing growth by a quarter. That’s a good thing. Right now, the market seems to be ignoring that.