????12月9日，當一列來自中國制造業重鎮義烏的貨運火車抵達馬德里時，它受到了最高級別的慶祝和歡迎。

????這條“21世紀的絲綢之路”是“全球最長的鐵路”，比西伯利亞大鐵路（Trans-Siberian railway）和東方快車（Orient Express）的線路加起來還要長。在21天的行程中，這列火車穿越中國、哈薩克斯坦、俄羅斯、白俄羅斯、波蘭、德國、法國和西班牙，總行駛路程超過8,000英里，創造了一項新紀錄。

????問題在于，這項從中國到西班牙的商業貨運服務——尤其是考慮到這趟前往馬德里的處子秀包括一個裝滿兒童陀螺玩具的集裝箱——真的能產生經濟效益嗎？

????盡管它聽起來像是一種充滿幻想色彩的大冒險，但超長距離的鐵路運輸的確是國際運輸中重要的組成部分。在連接中國和歐洲的所謂歐亞大陸橋（Eurasian Land Bridge）上，至少遠至德國的運輸線路早已頗具規模。每周都有大約五列火車抵達德國。

????最近抵達西班牙的火車包含30節集裝箱，裝有餐具、玩具和其他日用消費品。在圣誕節后，這列火車將載滿葡萄酒、火腿和橄欖油返程。在2014年上半年，西伯利亞大鐵路的集裝箱運輸量提高了8%，增長至86.56萬標準箱（即20英尺長的集裝箱）。

????長距離鐵路運輸與空運和海運的區別在于成本和速度。據國際鐵路聯盟（International Union of Railways）貨運部主任米克洛斯?科普介紹，把一個10頓重，40英尺長的集裝箱從中國成都運到波蘭羅茲，經火車需要12至14天，經飛機只要幾天（加上通過兩國的海關和交貨所需的時間），而走海路則需要6周甚至更長。科普表示，在價格方面，空運該箱子大約需要4萬美元，鐵路運輸需要1萬美元，而海運只需5,000美元。

????科普說：“如果你要從中國中部運貨到歐洲中部，（采用火車）是一個不錯的選擇，盡管它沒有走海路那么便宜。”

????然而，霍夫斯特拉大學（Hofstra University）全球學和地理學教授、教科書《交通系統地理學》（The Geography of Transport Systems）的主要作者讓-保羅?羅德里格表示，通過歐亞大陸橋進行鐵路運輸也存在許多問題。

????比如說，由于橋和隧道建得較低，其他基礎設施也有不足，歐洲鐵路運輸無法采用雙層集裝箱列車，裝載的貨物還不足美國同類火車的一半。羅德里格說，另一個問題是從德國到西班牙還需要一個星期，這削弱了鐵路運輸的速度和成本優勢。

????羅德里格表示：“西班牙是歐洲最糟糕的鐵路運輸終點站。它到歐洲中部的距離和亞洲到歐洲中部的距離一樣遠。我認為這有點做秀的成分，是為了展現這項鐵路運輸服務的技術和能力。但我懷疑該服務在商業上是否可行。”

????此外，巴塞羅那IESE商學院（Barcelona’s IESE Business School）生產、技術和經營課程的講師瓊?簡還指出，哈薩克斯坦冬季的平均最高溫度是20華氏度。靈敏的電子產品需要用特制集裝箱來防護這樣的低溫，更不用說西班牙的大量出口商品了。

????瓊?簡表示：“火車在低溫地區要待上六到八天，你不能讓葡萄酒和火腿被凍著。”

????西班牙鐵路的三大運營商InterRail、DB Schenker Rail和Transfesa仍在考慮是否在2015年春季加開兩列中國至西班牙的月度列車。如果決定加開，這項服務可能會采用一種不同的盈利模式。

????歐洲鐵路和基礎設施聯合會（Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies，CER）執行理事利博爾?洛赫曼表示，高昂的運輸成本意味著這類列車最適合運輸電子產品或藥品等高價值商品，而不是便宜的玩具。

????IESE的瓊?簡表示，如果該列車能定期運營，并直達西班牙（而不在中途卸貨裝貨），那它就能提供更具競爭力的價格。他還補充道，如果能找到高價值商品賣給中國，讓集裝箱列車不至于空手而歸，就可以進一步降低運營成本。這并不容易，因為2013年西班牙對中國的貿易逆差高達130億歐元。（目前，許多集裝箱列車從歐洲返回時都是空駛，另一些則裝有汽車、汽車配件和制造設備。）

????盡管有這些障礙，義新歐鐵路的貿易額在未來幾年很可能將會增長。歐洲鐵路和基礎設施聯合會的洛赫曼指出，未來在伊斯坦布爾開辟的歐亞新隧道可以用來架設新的歐亞大陸橋。他表示，盡管仍然無法采用雙層集裝箱列車，但歐洲鐵路運輸當局正試著升級基礎設施來增強鐵路的競爭力。這樣可以讓1,000米到1,500米的火車得以通行，而不是目前采用的600米火車。

????霍夫斯特拉大學的羅德里格表示，盡管穿越許多國家的21世紀絲綢之路聽起來十分浪漫（也許甚至有利可圖），但陸路需要面對航路和海路可以避免的地緣政治問題。

????他說：“你會碰到許多邊界問題。想想在有禁運令的情況下進入俄羅斯吧，那會十分有趣。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：嚴匡正

????When the cargo train from the Chinese manufacturing hub of Yiwu arrived in Madrid on December 9, it was welcomed with a celebration of superlatives.

????This “21st-century Silk Road” was the “longest rail link in the world,” longer than the Trans-Siberian railway and the Orient Express combined. And after spending 21 days covering more than 8,000 miles through China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, France and Spain, it did set a distance record.

????The question is, does a commercial cargo service from China to Spain – especially one whose maiden voyage to Madrid included a container filled with kids’ spinning tops – make economic sense?

????While it may seem like a fanciful adventure, extreme long distance rail service is an important piece of the international shipping arsenal. Use of the so-called Eurasian Land Bridge between China and Europe is well established at least as far as Germany, which receives some five trains a week.

????The recently arrived 30-container train of cutlery, toys, and other consumer goods will return to China after Christmas loaded with wine, ham, and olive oil. In the first half of 2014, international container traffic on the Trans-Siberian rail line rose 8%, to 865,600 teu (20-foot equivalent units).

????Long distance rail cargo splits the difference between airplane and boat delivery in terms of price and speed. According to Miklós Kopp, director of freight at the International Union of Railways, sending a 10-ton 40-foot container from Chengdu, China, to Lodz, Poland, takes 12 to 14 days by train, compared to several days by plane (if you include customs and delivery on each end) and some six weeks or longer by boat. The price tag comes to some $40,000 by air, compared to $10,000 by train, and as low as $5,000 by boat, Kopp says.

????“If you go from the center of China to the center of Europe, it’s [rail travel] a good decision, though not as cheap as by sea,” says Kopp.

????Still, carrying rail freight across the Eurasian Land Bridge comes with many problems, says Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a professor of global studies and geography at Hofstra University and lead author of the textbook The Geography of Transport Systems.

????For one, freight trains in Europe carry less than half the cargo of such trains in the U.S. because low bridges, tunnels, and other infrastructure problems prohibit the use of double-stack containers. Another problem, Rodrigue says, is that the trip from Germany to Spain adds another week to the journey, cutting out some of rail’s speed and cost advantages.

????“Spain is the worst place in Europe to do a train trip. It’s as far as you can get in continental Europe from Asia,” he says. “I think it’s a bit for show, to demonstrate the technology and capability to put on these services. But I have some doubts that these services are commercially feasible.”

????Added to these problems, notes Joan Jané, a lecturer in production, technology and operations at Barcelona’s IESE Business School, is that the average winter high temperature in Kazakhstan is 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Such cold temperatures require special containers for sensitive electronic goods, not to mention Spain’s big exports.

????“The train can spend six to eight days in places with very low temperatures,” he says. “And you can’t have frozen wine or ham.”

????The three operators of the Spain train – InterRail, DB Schenker Rail, and Transfesa – are still deciding whether to add twice monthly China-to-Spain service in spring 2015. If they do, the service will likely have to take a different form to be profitable.

????Higher travel costs mean that this kind of train service will be best for high-value goods like electronics and medicines, not cheap toys, says Libor Lochman, executive director of the Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies (CER) trade association.

????The service could also offer more competitive prices if it were regular and direct to Spain (instead of dropping off and picking up goods along the way), says Jané of IESE. And, he adds, operators could further lower costs by finding high-value goods to sell back to China, making sure containers do not return empty. That will be difficult, as Spain ran a €13 billion trade deficit with China in 2013. (Right now, many containers are sent back from Europe empty; others are filled with cars, car parts, and manufacturing equipment.)

????Despite the hurdles, China-Europe rail trade will most likely grow in the coming years. The CER’s Lochman notes that, in the future, a new tunnel opened from the Asian to the European sides of Istanbul could be used for a new Eurasian Land Bridge. And, he says, while it will continue to be impossible to double stack containers, European rail freight authorities are trying to make rail more competitive by upgrading infrastructure to allow for longer, 1,000- to 1,500-meter trains, compared to the 600-meter trains used today.

????Still, while traversing a gaggle of countries on the 21st-Century Silk Road may seem romantic (and perhaps even profitable), the method comes with geopolitical problems that planes and boats don’t have to contend with, says Rodrigue of Hoftra.

????“You have a lot of border issues,” he says. “You have to think entering Russia with the embargo, that’s going to be a lot of fun.”