????或許有一天，珠寶可能變成一種服務(wù)。比如一對情侶在確定戀愛關(guān)系初期，走進(jìn)一家珠寶店，請一位設(shè)計(jì)師打造一對能夠反映他們當(dāng)前關(guān)系的戒指。時(shí)光荏苒，當(dāng)這對情侶覺得彼此關(guān)系又深了一步時(shí)，他們重返這家珠寶店。珠寶商將把他們的戒指重新設(shè)計(jì)，再打造一對能夠反映二人關(guān)系邁入新階段的戒指。隨著這對情侶結(jié)婚、生子，這種服務(wù)還會(huì)不斷更新。

????這正是珠寶商Pearlfisher構(gòu)想出的“tbc”概念品牌，它在紐約和倫敦都設(shè)有分店。近日，Pearlfisher在其名為《奢侈格調(diào)》的報(bào)告中，暢想了未來奢侈品市場的可能發(fā)展模式。世界日新月異，科技已經(jīng)使得一切都變得更加便宜快捷。而我們不妨捫心自問，幾年后，奢侈品消費(fèi)者想要哪些與眾不同的東西？

????昨日的奢侈品今天可能已經(jīng)“平民化”。紐約布魯克林Huge國際創(chuàng)意公司的索菲?克萊伯指出，在過去，送貨上門是只有富人才能享受的服務(wù)，而今天，當(dāng)日送達(dá)等服務(wù)對于都市人來說已經(jīng)不是新鮮事了。Uber等打車軟件使得高檔租車業(yè)務(wù)也變得平易近人。甚至管家服務(wù)的價(jià)格也不再那么高不可攀了。

????科技讓一切變得更便攜的同時(shí)，所謂“高度奢華”越來越難以立足。在該調(diào)查中，許多受訪的奢侈品機(jī)構(gòu)都反饋稱，奢侈品業(yè)務(wù)要想與平價(jià)市場拉開距離，就必須要把體驗(yàn)做到更高的水平。比如，在不久的將來，當(dāng)顧客走近一家普拉達(dá)（Prada）專賣店時(shí)，銷售助理可能會(huì)獲得一份關(guān)于顧客的尺碼和品味的報(bào)告，使他們能迅速引導(dǎo)顧客購買他們喜愛的東西。

????不過，Gap或Target等平價(jià)品牌的消費(fèi)者多久之后能用上這種服務(wù)？由于信息技術(shù)發(fā)展得非?？欤魏我粋€(gè)品牌都不會(huì)長期獨(dú)享這種技術(shù)優(yōu)勢。

????從某種程度上來說，高科技設(shè)備已經(jīng)沖擊了所謂“奢侈品”的概念。以價(jià)格達(dá)10800美元的Vertu署名觸屏智能手機(jī)為例。消費(fèi)者可以享受一年的“全球管家服務(wù)”，它的攝像頭和話筒也是經(jīng)過國際領(lǐng)先品牌認(rèn)證的，但它依舊運(yùn)行的是安卓系統(tǒng)，而且它的處理器可能還不如499.99美元的Moto X手機(jī)。從外在看，它的定制做得很漂亮，但作為一款設(shè)備，它沒有任何突出的地方。

????一對價(jià)值22200美元的金伯利（Kimberly McDonald）耳環(huán)，除了是一對物件，沒有任何特殊功能。人們購買這對耳環(huán)或Vertu手機(jī)，看中的并不是它們的功能，僅僅是因?yàn)樗鼈兪窍『蔽?。因此，奢侈品專家表示，奢侈品消費(fèi)者今后的消費(fèi)方向?qū)⑹悄欠N不僅少見，而且還能表達(dá)他們自身某些特質(zhì)的東西。Pearlfisher公司稱之為“從放縱到資產(chǎn)”的轉(zhuǎn)變。人們不再希望讓別人覺得他們擁有很貴的東西，只想讓別人覺得他們擁有對的東西。

????這些消費(fèi)者希望他們購買的東西能反映出他們的三觀。Pearlfisher的報(bào)告舉了Maison Martin Margiela公司的產(chǎn)品作例子，這家公司主打高檔家居產(chǎn)品，比如它的一款夜燈的形狀就像一具非常簡單的古代燈具，材質(zhì)是能夠發(fā)出熒光的石膏。

????紐約時(shí)尚創(chuàng)意機(jī)構(gòu)The O Group的克里斯汀?迪爾曼也認(rèn)為這個(gè)理念很有道理，她表示：“或許在將來，人們將普遍接受這一理念，那時(shí)人們開始投資更少的錢買更好的東西，奢侈品品牌也要基于這個(gè)理念發(fā)展。”如果這一預(yù)測是正確的，那么不久之后市場將需要更多的專業(yè)策劃人才。

????品牌營銷機(jī)構(gòu)Agency:Luxury的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人洛葛仙妮?吉尼認(rèn)為，這種轉(zhuǎn)變的另一后果，則是新興公司將逐漸蠶食守成公司的市場份額。雖然總是有消費(fèi)者喜歡那種像Goyard Luggage那樣擁有兩百年歷史的老品牌，不過吉尼表示：“如果你看看所有的大品牌，看看他們的社交媒體內(nèi)容和他們的網(wǎng)站，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們非常自戀。”但是下一代的消費(fèi)者可能對此并不買賬。

????吉尼表示，新一代消費(fèi)者想要的是能和他們對話的品牌。“新一代人想要能反映‘他們’的東西。他們不想像其他人一樣盲從?！奔徇€舉了一個(gè)名叫Anatomie的小品牌的例子，這個(gè)品牌的設(shè)計(jì)師與他最好的客戶保持了非常好的關(guān)系，他們甚至邀請他到家里去給他們做造型。

????隨著定制變得流行，服務(wù)可能成為一種大有可為的奢侈品。吉尼正在與一家名叫Presidential Private Jet Vacations的公司合作，這家公司專門規(guī)劃完全定制化的旅行線路，所有行程安排都是通過私人飛機(jī)完成的。

????克萊伯指出，這種服務(wù)具有更深層次的價(jià)值定位：“如今，最大的奢侈品是時(shí)間?！蹦切┛梢詾橄M(fèi)者帶來獨(dú)特體驗(yàn)，同時(shí)省卻他們很多麻煩，并能帶來附加值的服務(wù)，很可能將成為消費(fèi)者追捧的對象。

????專家們認(rèn)為，一些稀有體驗(yàn)也將變得更加珍貴。迪爾曼舉了旅行雜志《Afar》為例，表示奢華型消費(fèi)者更期望“深度游”。比如香檳公司VeuveCliquot在法國的蘭斯有一家只有獲得邀請才能入住的酒店，名叫L’H?tel du Marc。該酒店具有新古典主義的建筑風(fēng)格，以及一系列當(dāng)代藝術(shù)作品。由于該酒店只有六間房間，能夠入住的人少之又少。

????這并不是說，商品和科技在高端市場中已經(jīng)沒有一席之地了。越來越多的工程師正在把工夫下在設(shè)備上，而不是軟件和網(wǎng)站等產(chǎn)品上。而機(jī)器的邊際成本永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)像軟件與其它數(shù)字產(chǎn)品那樣趨于零。

????杰西卡?班克斯是Rock Paper Robot公司的創(chuàng)始人，這家公司是一家高端的家居制造商，它的獨(dú)特之處在于，通過使用物理學(xué)定律來生產(chǎn)一些貌似幾乎不可能存在的東西（比如她的標(biāo)志性作品是一款懸浮桌子）。班克斯表示：“我認(rèn)為功能性、定制性和模塊化是未來的關(guān)鍵，這也正是我的發(fā)展方向。”班克斯的公司還生產(chǎn)了一款神奇的吊燈，可以通過判斷屋里人們的情緒來決定散射或集中光線。

????家居市場的高端定制化會(huì)朝著哪個(gè)方向發(fā)展呢？我們不妨想象一下：不久的將來，整面墻都用電子墻紙包裹，墻的顏色和圖案可以迅速改變。再往后，說不定你只要下一條語音指令，家具就可以自己整理甚至像變形金剛一樣變形，同一間屋子不一會(huì)兒就能從餐廳變成臥室再變成舞廳。

????如果說，明日的奢侈品消費(fèi)者青睞的是那些能夠表達(dá)出自我個(gè)性的品牌，那么隨著時(shí)間的推移，它還會(huì)合乎邏輯地繼續(xù)邁進(jìn)一步：未來的奢侈品消費(fèi)者很可能需要一些能夠即興發(fā)揮，精確適應(yīng)目標(biāo)人群品味的解決方案。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Jewelry could be a service one day. A couple might go into a jewelry store early in their relationship and sit down with a designer who makes a ring that somehow reflects who they are to each other. Time passes. They return to the shop as they’ve both seen the relationship has progressed. The jeweler takes the same metal and diamond and refashions in it into a new shape to reflect the new stage. Then again as they marry, have kids, etc.

????This is the vision of “tbc,” a conceptual brand imagined by the New York and London agency Pearlfisher in its report, Luxury Mode, a forward looking imagining of shifts anticipated in the luxury market based on observations of today. In a changing world where technology makes everything so much cheaper (and so fast), it’s worth asking what luxury consumers will want a few years from now that everyone can’t have.

????Yesterday’s luxury is commonplace today. Sophie Kleber of Huge, an international creative agency based in Brooklyn, pointed out that rapid home delivery of goods was once only available to the affluent. Now, goods delivered the same day or close to it is a reality for the regular urbanite. Uber has made black car service commonplace. Butlers on demand are even offered at attainable prices.

????Which illustrates why being exceptionally luxurious will get harder as technology makes so much easier. A theme that many of the luxury agencies consulted for the survey kept returning to was the idea that luxury brands will take bespoke experiences to new levels as a way to stand out from the mass market. So, for example, soon customers may walk into a Prada store and the sales associate will get a report of their sizes and tastes to guide them to exactly what they might like swiftly.

????Yet, how long before that technology is comparably available to consumers at the Gap GPS 1.48% ? Or Target TGT 1.45% ? That sort of information technology scales so fast that any advantage a brand achieves digitally won’t last.

????High tech devices, in a way, undermine the very notion of luxury. Take the $10,800 Vertu Signature Touch Smartphone. It comes with a year of global concierge service, with a camera and speakers certified by top brands, but it is still just running Android, and its processor isn’t even quite as good as the one in the $499.99 Moto X. On the outside, it has beautiful customizations, but, as a device, it is nothing extraordinary.

????Yet a $22,200 pair of earrings from Kimberly McDonald have no features at all, beyond being objects. People aren’t paying for the earrings or the phone’s function, but their quality as rare objects. If that’s so, experts say that luxury consumer will be looking for something not only rare but that expresses something about them. Pearlfisher calls this a shift, “from excess to asset.” People won’t want to be seen so much having lots of expensive things, but just the right ones.

????These consumers will want to make purchases that illuminate something about how the buyer sees the world. Pearlfisherpoints to Maison Martin Margiela, with a homeware collection that offers products such as a night-light sculpted to look like a basic, vintage light fixture, in glow-in-the-dark plaster.

????The O Group’s Kristen Dillman echoed the idea of thoughtful, considered consumption. “Perhaps in the future,” she says, “we might see luxury brands playing on this idea that’s already permeated the culture, of people investing in fewer but better things.” If this prediction is right, expert curators may be more in demand before long.

????The other implication of this shift could be that upstart brands who know their following will erode the legacy companies’ market share, Roxanne Genier, cofounder of Agence:Luxury, explained. Though no doubt some will always like the story of 200-year-old lines, like Goyard luggage. “When you start looking at all the big brands, their social media presence and their websites, it’s all about me,” Genier said, but she doesn’t think that works for the coming generation of consumers.

????They want brands they can be in conversation with, she says. “The younger generation, they want something that’s them. They don’t want to be a copycat like everyone else.” In fact, beyond customization, Genier pointed to one small brand, Anatomie, whose designer has such a close relationship with his best clients that he’s been known to visit them at home to personally style them.

????As bespoke becomes the watchword, services may become the ascendant luxury product. Genier is working with Presidential Private Jet Vacations, which plans an entirely customizable itinerary, makes all the arrangements and escorts their guests through it in a private plane.

????Kleber spoke to the deeper value proposition of this kind of service. “The biggest luxury today is time,” she says. Services that can give deliver unique experiences but save clients the trouble of making them and add value to shared experiences are likely to be sought after going forward.

????Rare experiences are also likely to be more prized, experts agreed. Dillman pointed to Afar Magazine, saying that luxury consumers will look to “travel deeper.” For example, The champagne company VeuveCliquot runs an invitation-only hotel in Reims, France, L’H?tel du Marc. It features neoclassical architecture complemented by a rotating collection of contemporary artwork. With just six rooms, very few people will ever get to say they’ve been.

????Which isn’t to say that goods and technology have no place in the high end market. More engineers are turning their skills to devices rather than digital products such as software and websites, and the marginal cost of machines never reaches zero, as it does with digital inventions.

????Jessica Banks founded Rock Paper Robot, a high-end furniture maker that uses principles of physics to make furniture that appear to do the impossible (her signature piece is a levitating table). She says, “Versatility, customization and modularity: that’s what I think the future is about. And I’m banking on it.” Right now, that consists of making a chandelier that can spread light out or focus it in based on the mood it senses in a room.

????Where might high-end customization of the home lead? Imagine whole walls covered in electronic paper whose color and patterns could change in a moment. Later, there could be furniture that could rearrange or transform itself at a voice command, from dining room to den to ballroom in the same space.

????If it’s a safe bet now that tomorrow’s luxury consumer will seek brands that speak to their unique selves, further down the road, logic says it would go one step further: affluent consumers could demand solutions that can adapt on the fly to precisely the person they want to impress.