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油價(jià)大跌:中國(guó)成全球最大贏家

油價(jià)大跌:中國(guó)成全球最大贏家

Laura Lorenzetti 2014年12月04日
中國(guó)是世界第一大石油進(jìn)口國(guó),約60%的石油需求依靠進(jìn)口。據(jù)中國(guó)能源經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心稱,如果油價(jià)持續(xù)下跌,到今年年底,中國(guó)將省下高達(dá)300億美元。

????過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,國(guó)際油價(jià)驟然大跌,較之六月的最高值,跌幅近40%。

????近年來(lái)一直利潤(rùn)豐厚的能源生產(chǎn)商,如今處境不妙。上周,歐佩克(石油輸出國(guó)組織,OPEC)決定不減產(chǎn),令能源生產(chǎn)商改善處境的希望灰飛煙滅。

????歐佩克不減產(chǎn)的消息一出,市場(chǎng)大為緊張,布倫特原油(Brent crude)的價(jià)格應(yīng)聲大跌。自那以來(lái),布倫特原油的價(jià)格已小幅反彈至每桶約71.58美元,但仍遠(yuǎn)低于今年早些時(shí)候每桶約107美元的高位。意料之中的是,油價(jià)大跌有人獲益有人遭殃。

????下面,我們就來(lái)看看,誰(shuí)將從油價(jià)暴跌中獲益良多,而誰(shuí)將損失慘重。

????贏家:中國(guó)

????中國(guó)是世界第一大石油進(jìn)口國(guó),約60%的石油需求依靠進(jìn)口。因此,油價(jià)下跌會(huì)降低中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的總體負(fù)擔(dān),使工廠生產(chǎn)及最終產(chǎn)品的成本下降。據(jù)中國(guó)能源經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心(China Center for Energy Economics Research)稱,如果油價(jià)持續(xù)下跌,到今年年底,中國(guó)將省下高達(dá)300億美元。這些錢可用于投資,幫助刺激正在放緩的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。中國(guó)今年的GDP增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)約為7.3%,而1992年的歷史高點(diǎn)為14.2%。

????除中國(guó)外,油價(jià)下跌還將對(duì)日本、印度、德國(guó)和法國(guó)等其它石油凈進(jìn)口國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)提到提振作用。

????輸家:俄羅斯

????與之相反的是石油出口大國(guó)俄羅斯。石油銷售在俄羅斯出口中占有極大比重,因此,俄羅斯盧布的穩(wěn)定性,與能源價(jià)格息息相關(guān)。盧布在本周一跌至歷史新低,貶值5%,盧布兌美元的匯率達(dá)到53.90:1。與今年年初相比,盧布幣值縮水了約40%。

????油價(jià)下跌不僅削弱了俄羅斯的消費(fèi)力,也增加了俄羅斯平衡國(guó)家預(yù)算的難度。俄羅斯所做的政府稅收預(yù)算,是基于石油價(jià)格為每桶100美元,如今的油價(jià)將顯著改變俄羅斯的財(cái)政計(jì)劃。

????尼日利亞和委內(nèi)瑞拉等其它石油凈出口國(guó),境況與俄羅斯類似。

????贏家:捷藍(lán)航空

????捷藍(lán)航空(JetBlue)是最大的贏家之一,同時(shí),低廉的油價(jià)對(duì)所有航空公司以及旅客而言,都是好事。

????Oil prices have plummeted over the past few months, dropping nearly 40% since their peak in June.

????Energy producers, which have enjoyed huge profits in recent years, are now feeling the pain. Their hopes for some relief were dashed last week when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, decided against cutting production.

????The announcement rattled markets and sent the price of Brent crude tumbling. Since then, prices have rebounded slightly to around $71.58 a barrel. But that’s still far from the high of around $107 earlier this year. No surprisingly, there is a long list of winners and losers.

????Here’s a look at who’s making out big and who’s counting their losses.

????Winner: China

????China is the world's largest importer of oil, and relies on foreign oil supplies for about 60% of its domestic needs. Therefore, any drop in price reduces the overall burden on the economy, making factory production and final goods less expensive. China could save as much as $30 billion by the end of the year if prices keep falling, according to the China Center for Energy Economics Research. That money could be put toward investment to help spur the nation's slowing economy. Growth in China's gross domestic product is expected to be about 7.3% this year versus a record high of 14.2% in 1992.

????Other net oil importers, including Japan, India, Germany and France, will also welcome a similar economic lift from lower prices.

????Loser: Russia

????On the opposite end of the national spectrum is Russia: a big oil exporter. Oil sales account for a huge portion of the country's exports, and because of that, the stability Russian ruble is closely linked to energy prices. The ruble fell to a new record low Monday of 53.90 to the dollar, down 5%. The currency has lost about 40% of its value since the beginning of the year.

????Not only does cheap oil dampen Russia's spending power, it also makes it harder for the nation to balance its national budget. Russia's government tax revenue estimates are based on oil being at $100 a barrel--today's prices will significantly alter the country's fiscal planning.

????Other net oil exporters are in a similar position, as well, including Nigeria and Venezuela.

????Winner: JetBlue

????While JetBlue is one of the biggest winners, cheap oil is really a benefit for all airlines--and travelers.

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