????國際能源署（International Energy Agency）在最近發(fā)布的一份報告中表示，到本世紀中葉，太陽能有可能成為全球使用規(guī)模最大的能源，這將會減少數(shù)十億噸二氧化碳的排放，從而有助于抑制全球變暖趨勢。

????對于近年增長勢頭迅猛的太陽能行業(yè)而言，這份樂觀的報告無疑是一針強心劑。從現(xiàn)在起直到2022年，隨著太陽能的價格逐步下降而技術持續(xù)完善，預期全球需求將會每兩年翻上一番。美國市場更是有望出現(xiàn)強勁增長的市場之一。

????雖然太陽能是增長最快的可再生電力來源，但在以礦物燃料為主的能源組合中，太陽能目前仍然只占很小的比例。從全球來看，太陽能發(fā)電僅占各類能源總發(fā)電量的0.5%，而在美國，這一比例僅為0.2%。

????“過去幾年里，光伏組件和光伏系統(tǒng)的成本迅速下降，為太陽能在未來數(shù)年和數(shù)十年內發(fā)展成為主要的電力來源開辟了新的前景，”國際能源署總干事瑪麗亞?范德胡芬表示，“但是，這兩種技術都屬于資本密集型行業(yè)——幾乎所有的開支都需要在前期就早早投入。因此降低資本成本便成了實現(xiàn)這些發(fā)展路徑圖的首要任務。”

????據(jù)范德胡芬介紹，到2050年，預計太陽能光伏（PV）系統(tǒng)的價格將下降65%。而推動太陽能增長的另外一個關鍵所在，則要靠政府制定出明確的產業(yè)扶持政策。例如美國的太陽能產業(yè)就可以獲得太陽能投資稅收減免優(yōu)惠——政府對民用住宅和商用建筑中采用的太陽能發(fā)電系統(tǒng)提供高達30%的稅收減免。該行業(yè)目前正在積極游說政府將這一優(yōu)惠延長到2016年以后。

????“與之相反，”范德胡芬繼續(xù)介紹，“有些地方的政策不連貫、不明朗或者時斷時續(xù)，導致投資者需要為投資付出更高的成本，消費者需要為購買能源付出更高的費用，甚至有一些存在需求的項目最后卻難以為繼。”

????根據(jù)國際能源署的報告，太陽能光伏在2013年年底的裝機容量達到137千兆瓦，在能源市場上占據(jù)了主導地位——自2010年至今的新增容量甚至超過了之前40年的新增容量——并會將這種增長勢頭一直延續(xù)到2030年。不過，一旦太陽能光伏占到了各類能源總發(fā)電量的5%到15%，局面就會發(fā)生變化。

????到那時，太陽能光伏發(fā)電將會開始在批發(fā)市場喪失價值，而利用太陽能產生蒸汽動力的太陽能熱能發(fā)電技術，則會“在這一階段開始蓬勃發(fā)展，這要歸功于（聚光太陽能）電廠內部的蓄熱器可在屬于用電高峰時段的傍晚和夜間進行熱能發(fā)電，對太陽能光伏發(fā)電形成補充。”

????展望全球，預計中國將繼續(xù)在太陽能光伏領域引領風騷，美國則緊隨其后。與此同時，太陽能熱能發(fā)電則在日照充足的地區(qū)擁有無限的潛力，這意味著非洲、印度、中東和美國將迎來“重大發(fā)展機遇”。（財富中文網）

????By mid-century, the sun could be the largest source of energy and help reign in global warming by preventing the release of billions of tons of carbon dioxide emissions, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

????The bullish report is the latest dose of good news for the solar industry that has seen phenomenal growth. Global demand is expected to double every two years through 2022 as prices fall and the technology continues to improve. The United States is one of the markets poised for strong growth.

????Though it is the fastest growing source of renewable electricity, solar power still only represents a fraction of energy mix dominated by fossil fuels. Globally, it provides 0.5 percent of electricity generation and, in the United States, it currently provides 0.2 percent of energy generation.

????“The rapid cost decrease of photovoltaic modules and systems in the last few years has opened new perspectives for using solar energy as a major source of electricity in the coming years and decades,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said. “However, both technologies are very capital intensive: almost all expenditures are made upfront. Lowering the cost of capital is thus of primary importance for achieving the vision in these roadmaps.”

????The price of solar photovoltaic, or PV, systems is expected to drop by 65 percent by 2050, van der Hoeven said. Another key to the growth of solar will be government offering up clear policies to support the sector. The solar sector in the United States, for example, has benefited from the solar investment tax credit, which provides a 30 percent tax credit for solar systems on residential and commercial properties. The industry is pushing for it to be extended beyond 2016.

????“By contrast,” van der Hoeven said, “where there is a record of policy incoherence, confusing signals or stop-and-go policy cycles, investors end up paying more for their investment, consumers pays more for their energy, and some projects that are needed simply will not go ahead.”

????With 137 gigawatts of installed capacity at the end of 2013, PV has dominated the market — adding more capacity since 2010 than the previous four decades — and will continue to do so through 2030, according to the IEA. But once solar reaches from 5 percent to 15 percent of electricity generation, the picture changes.

????At that point, PV begins to lose value in wholesale markets while solar thermal electricity, which uses the solar to produce steam power, “takes off at this stage thanks to (concentrating solar power) plants’ built-in thermal storage, which allows for generation of electricity when demand peaks in late afternoon and in the evening, thus complementing PV generation.”

????Across the globe, China is expected to continue to lead the way on PV, followed by the United States. Solar thermal, meanwhile, has greatest potential in sunny areas meaning it probably be a “major opportunity” for Africa, India, the Middle East and the United States.