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特斯拉是“終極動力股”嗎?

特斯拉是“終極動力股”嗎?

Alex Taylor III 2014年08月19日
特斯拉的股價正在飆升,但無論是穆斯克對未來的樂觀預測,還是投資人對其股票的追捧,都基于同樣一個假設,那就是特斯拉未來依然會繼續延續最近的大熱勢頭。這是一種危險的假設。

????特斯拉(Tesla)正處在蜜運中。這家電動汽車公司的財富以不可思議的速度積聚,而投資者仍在熱烈地追捧它。

????看看這些:

????? 在美國股市整體被“踩下剎車”的情況下,特斯拉的股價還在一路狂飆。自今年年初至今,其股價已經上漲了80%,目前每股約262美元,接近該公司有史以來的最高值,市值達到320億美元。

????? 美國各州對特斯拉大獻殷勤,希望在其計劃投資50億美元興建的大型鋰電池工廠選址中勝出。這家工廠有可能解決多達6500人的就業。加利福尼亞州就正在與內華達、亞利桑那、新墨西哥和德克薩斯等州展開競爭,而吸引該廠落戶的條件據說是要給予5億美元的支持。

????? 特斯拉的積壓訂單達到2.26億美元。到2014年之前,特斯拉的生產速度大約為每周1000臺,也就是說這些訂單需要30周才能消化完。

????特斯拉表示,在該公司的展廳里,每平方英尺的面積帶來的銷售額是蘋果公司(Apple)的兩倍,而蘋果目前被公認為是行業領軍者。

????這些利好消息為特斯拉帶來了極為驚人的估值。一位名叫佐爾坦?班的特斯拉觀察人士在金融網站“尋找阿爾法“(Seeking Alpha)上指出,特斯拉現在的估值,相當于它每年已經能夠賣出幾十萬輛汽車,但實際上今年它只能賣出35,000多輛車。從另一個角度來說,特斯拉公司今年賣出的每一臺車,估值相當于高達100萬美元。

????這意味著投資者正為特斯拉的未來前景投下重注,出價要遠遠高于對其他豪車廠商實際表現的評估。梅塞德斯-奔馳(Mercedes-Benz)的制造商戴姆勒(Daimler)去年售出了超過250萬輛車,市值約為850億美元。所以,盡管戴姆勒的銷量是特斯拉的70多倍,但它的市值還不到特斯拉的3倍。

????通常冷靜的分析師們早已習慣了汽車行業的緩慢增長,但是遇到特斯拉,他們就丟掉了一貫的謹慎。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的分析師羅德?拉切給該股設定了310美元的目標價格。無獨有偶,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析師亞當?喬納斯也將特斯拉的目標股價定為320美元,并稱它是“世界上最重要的汽車公司”。

????在7月31日的分析師電話會議上,特斯拉的董事長兼CEO埃隆?穆斯克親手給“特斯拉熱”又添了一把柴。這次會議上爆出的“大新聞”并不是特斯拉第二季度產量再次提升并超過了收益預期。

????而是穆斯克在會上表示,預計特斯拉到2015年底將實現10萬臺的年產量。

????Everything is coming up roses for Tesla . The electric car company is enjoying an almost-unimaginable run of good fortune and is still being hotly pursued by investors.

????Consider:

????? At a time when the overall stock market is idling with the parking brake on, Tesla shares are on a tear. Since the beginning of the year, they have risen 80%. Currently at $262, the stock is selling at close to its all-time high and has a market cap of $32 billion.

????? States are falling all over themselves to be chosen as the site for Tesla’s proposed $5 billion Gigafactoryto produce lithium ion batteries. California is competing with Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, and the bidding for the factory, which could employ up to 6,500 people, is said to be up to $500 million.

????? Tesla has an order backlog of $226 million. At the production run rate of 1000 cars a week expected at the end of 2014, that translates to a 30-week backlog.

????? Tesla says it enjoys sales per square foot at its showrooms that are double that of Apple . The tech company is currently considered the industry leader.

????The valuation that all this good news is creating for Tesla is truly astonishing. A Tesla watcher named Zoltan Ban, writing in Seeking Alpha, figures that Tesla is already priced as if it sells several hundred thousand cars a year when in reality it will sell only about 35,000 in 2014. Another way of looking at this: At current prices, each car the company sells this year is valued at $1 million.

????In other words, investors are paying far more for Tesla’s future promises than today’s performance by other luxury car manufacturers. Daimler, the manufacturer of Mercedes-Benz, sold more than 2.5 million vehicles last year and has a market cap of about $85 billion. So, although it sells 70 times more vehicles than Tesla, its market cap is less than three times greater.

????Usually sober-minded analysts, accustomed to the auto industry’s slow growth, seem to shed their inhibitions when it comes to Tesla. Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank has attached a $310 price target on the stock. Not to be out-done, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley established a $320 price target and calls Tesla it the “most important car company in the world”.

????Fuel for this latest burst of Tesla mania came from none other than Chairman and CEO Elon Musk in comments he made during an analyst call on July 31. The big news wasn’t that Tesla reported higher production for the second quarter and beat earnings estimates again.

????Musk said he expects to be producing cars at a 100,000-a-year rate by the end of 2015.

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