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中國6月份銀行新增貸款放量增長驅散經濟放緩愁云

中國6月份銀行新增貸款放量增長驅散經濟放緩愁云

Geoffrey Smith 2014年07月18日
中國各家銀行6月份新增貸款大幅增長,大大高于外界的普遍預期。同時,中國總理李克強再次重申,中國經濟今年能實現7.5%的增長目標。中國傳來的利好消息鼓舞了亞洲股市。

????中國經濟放緩現在看起來似乎已經成了一件很遙遠的往事,因為此前于周二發布的數據顯示,中國6月份銀行貸款出現了大幅增長。

????中國各家銀行(它們的貸款很大程度上受政府政策影響)6月份新發放了1.08萬億元(1,740億美元)貸款,較5月份增長了20%還多,大大高于9,550億元的普遍預期。此外,一些更寬泛的反映經濟體系中流動性的指標增速也遠遠快于預期。

????自從上一次經濟危機以來,中國經濟一直是全球經濟增長最大的單一動力引擎。但由于中國正在努力革新經濟模式,把重點更多地放到增加國內消費上來,同時對倚重投資出口行業的資源進行重新分配,中國經濟增長勢頭最近幾個月有些掙扎。今年一季度,中國經濟增長率創下了兩年來的最低水平。

????但是,中國總理李克強堅信,中國將實現今年經濟增長7.5%的目標。而且,在中國政府網站周二發表的一份聲明中,他重申了這個積極樂觀的信息。

????與此同時,日本銀行(Bank of Japan)也發布了相對看漲的日本經濟前景。盡管日本銀行小幅縮減了(截至2015年3月)當前財政年度的增長預期,從之前的1.1%下調到了1%,但這家銀行的行長黑田東彥在一次新聞發布會上表示,日本經濟需要借助更多經濟刺激才能打贏長達20年的通縮抗擊戰的幾率現在已經接近于零。

????“我不認為消費者通貨膨脹率會跌到1%之下,”路透(Reuters)援引黑田東彥的話報道稱。“價格上漲趨勢正在擴大,而且預計還會繼續擴大,使得消費者通貨膨脹率向2%靠近。”

????這些前景看漲的好消息共同推動了亞洲股市周二的上漲行情。其中,日經225指數上漲0.6%,而香港和上海的基準指數分別上漲了0.5%和0.2%。

????但歐洲傳來的好消息不多,因為德國經濟的領先指標已經連續7個月下降。歐洲經濟研究中心(ZEW)發布的德國7月份經濟前景指數從5月份的29.4下降到了27.1,將將高于長期平均值24.7。ZEW評估德國當前經濟狀況的指數也從-27.7下降到了-31.5。

????ZEW負責人克萊門斯?福斯特表示,德國經濟曾經歷了生產和零售的雙重“短暫下滑”。但他表示,中長期前景仍舊“積極樂觀”。

????消息傳來,德國DAX指數應聲大幅下挫,截至周二美國東部時間0600下跌了0.4%。(財富中文網)

????China’s economic slowdown seemed more than ever a thing of the past, after data released Tuesday showed a sharp rise in bank lending in June.

????China’s banks–whose lending is heavily influenced by government policy, extended 1.08 trillion yuan ($174 billion) in new loans in the month, up over 20% from May and well above consensus forecast of CNY955 billion. Broader measures of liquidity in the economy also expanded far faster than expected.

????China’s economy, which has been the biggest single engine of growth for the world economy since the crisis, has faltered in recent months as the country struggles to reinvent its economic model, focusing more on raising domestic consumption and diverting resources away from investment-heavy export industries. Its growth rate in the first quarter was the slowest in two years.

????However, Premier Li Keqiang has insisted the country will meet its target of 7.5% growth this year andrepeated his upbeat message in a statement on the government’s website Tuesday.

????The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, also issued a relatively bullish update of its outlook for the economy. Although it shaved its growth forecast for the current financial year (ending in March 2015) to 1% from 1.1%, governor Haruhiko Kuroda indicated at a press conference that the chance of the economy needing further stimulus to win its two-decade battle with deflation is now close to zero.

????“I don’t think there is a possibility that consumer inflation will fall below 1%,” Reuters quoted Kuroda as saying. “Price rises are broadening and are expected to continue broadening, allowing for consumer inflation to diverge towards 2%.”

????The combination of bright news drove Asian stock markets higher Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rising 0.6%, while the benchmark indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai rose by 0.5% and 0.2%.

????There was less good news out of Europe, however, as a leading indicator for the German economy fell for the seventh month in a row. The ZEW research institute’s index of expectations for the economy fell to 27.1 from 29.4 in May, barely above its long-term average of 24.7. ZEW’s index assessing current conditions in Germany also fell to -31.5 from -27.7.

????ZEW head Clemens Fuest said the economy had suffered a “dip” in both production and in retail, but said the medium-term outlook “remains positive.”

????The German DAX index fell sharply in reaction to the news and was 0.4% lower by 0600 EDT.

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