????中俄天然氣交易已經(jīng)醞釀數(shù)年之久，如今終于達(dá)成協(xié)議。包括這筆交易在內(nèi)，中俄近十幾年年來(lái)在能源領(lǐng)域的一系列合作表明，雙方博弈的主動(dòng)權(quán)已經(jīng)逐漸從俄羅斯轉(zhuǎn)移到了中國(guó)手中。

????上個(gè)月，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾?普京與中國(guó)國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平在上海會(huì)面時(shí)，外行的觀察者們可能不會(huì)相信中俄兩國(guó)會(huì)達(dá)成天然氣供應(yīng)協(xié)議。畢竟，針對(duì)俄羅斯向中國(guó)增加天然氣出口的問題，兩國(guó)經(jīng)歷了漫長(zhǎng)的談判，雙方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也進(jìn)行了無(wú)數(shù)次會(huì)談，卻始終沒有結(jié)果。最終，普京與習(xí)近平終于敲定了4,000億美元的能源合作協(xié)議。雙方商定，俄羅斯從2018年開始，每年向中國(guó)輸送380億立方米天然氣。

????5月21日，中俄兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人為達(dá)成天然氣供應(yīng)協(xié)議舉杯慶賀。事實(shí)上，兩國(guó)很早便將彼此視為極具吸引力的天然氣合作伙伴。俄羅斯希望擺脫天然氣出口業(yè)務(wù)對(duì)歐洲的依賴，而中國(guó)市場(chǎng)對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)計(jì)劃至關(guān)重要。根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，歐洲市場(chǎng)的天然氣需求增長(zhǎng)速度將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于中國(guó)。而另一面，近幾年，中國(guó)天然氣需求激增，而中國(guó)的北方近鄰作為全球最大的天然氣出口國(guó)，自然被中國(guó)視為填補(bǔ)國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣產(chǎn)量與消費(fèi)量差距的重要供應(yīng)來(lái)源。

????而近幾個(gè)月，促使兩國(guó)舉行上海峰會(huì)的局勢(shì)變化，也為中俄認(rèn)真考慮天然氣合作提供了更多誘因。在俄羅斯方面，吞并克里米亞地區(qū)和由此導(dǎo)致的西方國(guó)家制裁使俄羅斯遭到美國(guó)和歐洲的進(jìn)一步孤立，因此，與中國(guó)的合作勢(shì)在必行。

????歐洲重新開始尋找新的天然氣供應(yīng)以取代俄羅斯，而美國(guó)決策者和華盛頓權(quán)威人士呼吁加快授予液化天然氣出口許可的進(jìn)程以及取消原油出口禁令，以幫助歐洲擺脫對(duì)俄羅斯能源的依賴，這無(wú)疑使得莫斯科方面更加迫切與中國(guó)簽署一份天然氣協(xié)定。

????在中國(guó)方面，糟糕的空氣質(zhì)量以及今年三月份李克強(qiáng)總理“向污染宣戰(zhàn)”的決心使得俄羅斯的天然氣更具吸引力。實(shí)際上，中國(guó)政府今年四月份宣布，到2020年，全國(guó)天然氣消費(fèi)量將增長(zhǎng)兩倍以上，從2013年的1,700億立方米增加到4,000 – 4,200億立方米。這就意味著，中國(guó)現(xiàn)在更需要俄羅斯的天然氣。

????過去，中俄無(wú)法達(dá)成天然氣協(xié)議的主要障礙在于價(jià)格。俄羅斯不希望價(jià)格低于自己向最大的客戶歐洲出口天然氣的價(jià)格。而中國(guó)卻不希望價(jià)格高于自己從最大天然氣供應(yīng)國(guó)土庫(kù)曼斯坦進(jìn)口天然氣的價(jià)格。

????中俄兩國(guó)最終就價(jià)格問題達(dá)成了共識(shí)，但雙方都把這個(gè)價(jià)格看成商業(yè)機(jī)密。因此，對(duì)于4,000億美元合同中隱含的價(jià)格以及合同的受益方，外界分析師有大量的猜測(cè)。通過大致計(jì)算得出的隱含價(jià)格是每千立方米350美元，基本接近去年中國(guó)從土庫(kù)曼斯坦進(jìn)口天然氣的價(jià)格。這個(gè)估算結(jié)果也符合許多外部觀察家在兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會(huì)之前的一致意見，即由于俄羅斯與美國(guó)和歐洲的緊張關(guān)系，而且希望向中國(guó)市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)天然氣的國(guó)家大有人在，因此，中國(guó)在談判中掌握了主動(dòng)權(quán)。

????盡管如此，我們并不清楚定價(jià)公式，也不知道可以代入公式的基數(shù)，以及談判桌上的其他問題。例如，中國(guó)在俄羅斯明顯缺少對(duì)上游產(chǎn)業(yè)的介入，外界傳言的中國(guó)向俄羅斯支付的預(yù)付款，俄羅斯考慮免除向中國(guó)輸送天然氣的礦產(chǎn)開采稅，中國(guó)考慮免除俄羅斯向中國(guó)供應(yīng)天然氣的液化天然氣進(jìn)口稅，以及中國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格改革的進(jìn)度等，這些因素都會(huì)影響兩國(guó)的價(jià)格決策。

????To the casual observer, it’s easy to doubt that China and Russia would have ever struck a natural gas supply and purchase deal during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shanghai last month. After all, countless summits between Chinese and Russian leaders have come and gone with no final agreement signed for the long-discussed plans to ship more Russian gas to China. However, Putin and Xi finally ended an energy courtship, agreeing to a $400 billion deal for the delivery of 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China starting in 2018.

????Long before the Chinese and Russian leaders on May 21 toasted their supply contract, the two countries had viewed each other as attractive natural gas partners. Russia regarded tapping into the Chinese market as essential to its plans to diversify its exports away from Europe, where natural gas demand is projected to grow at a substantially slower pace than in China. Meanwhile, the surge in China’s natural gas demand in recent years made the Chinese eye their northern neighbor, the world’s largest natural gas exporter, as an important source of supply to fill the gap between China’s domestic natural gas production and consumption.

????Developments in the months leading up to the Shanghai summit may have provided Russia and China with added incentives to get serious about a natural gas marriage. For Russia, the new imperative is the country’s increased isolation from the United States and Europe in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the resulting Western sanctions.

????Europe’s renewed interest in finding alternatives to natural gas supplies from Russia, and the calls by U.S. policymakers and pundits for Washington to expedite the process for granting LNG export licenses and lift the virtual ban on crude oil exports to help wean Europe off Russian energy, undoubtedly made signing a gas pact with China even more appealing to Moscow.

????For China, the country’s poor air quality and it’s “war on pollution” declared by Premier Li Keqiang in March likely increased the desirability of Russian natural gas. Indeed, the Chinese government’s announcement in April that the country aims to more than double the country’s natural gas consumption from 170 bcm in 2013 to 400-420 bcm in 2020 means China now needs Russian gas more than ever.

????The major obstacle that Russia and China encountered on past attempts to make it to the altar was price. Russia did not want to sell gas to China at a price lower than it commanded in Europe, its largest customer. Meanwhile, China did not want to buy gas at a higher price than it paid Turkmenistan, its largest supplier of natural gas.

????Although the Russians and the Chinese have come to a meeting of the minds on price, they are treating it as a commercial secret. Consequently, there has been much speculation by outside analysts about the price implied by the $400 billion contract and what it says about which country got the better deal. A back-of-the-envelope calculation yields an implied price of $350 per thousand cubic meters, which is close to what the Chinese are understood to have paid for gas from Turkmenistan last year. This estimate fits with the consensus among many outside observers in the lead up to the summit that Chinese had the upper hand due to Russia’s strained relations with the U.S. and Europe and the number of natural gas producers eager to supply the Chinese market.

????That said, we do not know the pricing formula, the base number to be plugged into that formula or how a variety of other issues on the negotiating table – such as the apparent lack of upstream access in Russia for the Chinese, a rumored prepayment from the Chinese to the Russians, a Russian proposal to exempt gas sent to China from a mineral extraction tax, a Chinese proposal to exempt Russian supplies from an LNG import tax, and expectations about the pace of natural gas price reform in China – influenced both countries decisions about price.