????更重要的是，涉及大宗商品時(shí)，一些銀行甚至可能沒(méi)有意識(shí)到他們正在承受中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。花旗集團(tuán)那筆最終經(jīng)青島港流入中國(guó)的貸款，其實(shí)是發(fā)放給瑞士大宗商品交易商摩科瑞公司(Mercuria)的。摩科瑞公司用來(lái)辦理這筆融資貸款的大宗商品儲(chǔ)存在青島，而這些大宗商品則是從一家名為德誠(chéng)礦業(yè)(Decheng Mining)的中國(guó)大宗商品公司借來(lái)的。

????與其他類型的貸款不同，銀行通常不會(huì)基于會(huì)計(jì)核算而詳細(xì)披露它們究竟貸出了多少錢。“我從來(lái)沒(méi)有見(jiàn)過(guò)包含這類信息的銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，”研究大宗商品支持貸款的麻省理工學(xué)院(MIT)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授朱浩翔（音譯）說(shuō)。“這是很難追蹤的。”

????盡管在中國(guó)和美國(guó)之間從事利差交易看起來(lái)似乎很容易賺錢，但這種交易有可能玩砸。人民幣幣值下跌（在過(guò)去一年下跌了3%）將蠶食利潤(rùn)，因?yàn)樵诮灰捉Y(jié)束時(shí)，債務(wù)人公司需要用更多的人民幣償還他們所欠的美元債務(wù)。此外，如果你正在為大宗商品交易融資，一旦大宗商品價(jià)格上漲，那就有可能抹去你的一些收益。

????盡管如此，只要中美之間依然保持這樣大的利率差，中國(guó)的利差交易就將持續(xù)下去。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：葉寒

????What’s more, when it comes to commodities, some banks might not even realize they are taking on China risk. The Citi loan that ended up sending money to China by way of the Qingdao port was made to Swiss commodities trading firm Mercuria. The commodities that Mercuria used to finance the loan were stored in Qingdao, on loan from a Chinese commodities company named Decheng Mining.

????And unlike other types of lending, banks typically don’t break out just how much money they have lent out based on accounting. “I have never seen any bank balance sheet that has that information,” says Haoziang Zhu, an economics professor at MIT who has studied commodity-based lending. “It’s hard to track.”

????And while the China-to-U.S. carry trade may seem like easy money, there are ways it can go bad. A drop in the yuan, which is down 3% in the past year, would cut into profits because a debtor company would need more of those to pay back the dollars they owe in the U.S. loan at the end of the transaction. Also, if you are financing a transaction with commodities, and commodities prices rise, that could erase some of your gains.

????That said, as long as interest rates between the U.S. and China remain this wide, the China carry trade will carry on.