????中國的房市正在下行，沒人知道下行幅度有多大。政府上周公布的數據顯示，中國越來越多城市的房價下降。龍洲經訊（Gavekal Dragonomics）咨詢公司分析師仔細分析了房價下降背后的原因，他們的研究發現對預計中國將經歷房市低迷的人們來說令人鼓舞。

????龍洲經訊分析師咬麗薔和托馬斯?加特利發現，引領本輪房價下跌的并不是那些無人居住的小城，而是那些沿海熱點城市。過去幾年，北京以及上海、廣州、深圳等房價高昂的沿海城市房產回報率達到每年20％-30％。龍洲經訊的結論是，上述城市的房市正在經歷調整。

????開發商大舉借貸，打造昂貴的沿海城鎮，雖然進一步抬高了房價，但也導致自身資金鏈緊繃。

????龍洲經訊的分析師寫道：“2013年底，銷售增長開始放緩，開發商開始在部分城市降價促銷，希望盤活現金流。降價主要集中在高房價城市，因為這些城市降價促銷成功的機會最大。不幸的是，這些知名大都會是全國市場的領頭羊，隨著降價之說甚囂塵上，全國的房產銷量和市場情緒都受到了挫傷。”

????下圖顯示了2010年至2014年間高房價沿海城市的房價起伏（其中紅色曲線代表高房價沿海城市、藍色曲線代表其他高房價城市、黑色曲線代表適用房價城市）。

????China's housing market is heading downward, how severely no one knows. The government released data this week showing price declines in more cities. But analysts at Gavekal Dragonomics have zeroed in on the cause, and their findings are encouraging for those expecting China to muddle through a property downturn.

????Instead of small, ghost cities driving the price declines, Gavekal analysts Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley found that China's hot coastal markets are leading the declines. Expensive coastal cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and others that in past few years have posted property gains of 20%-30% a year. Gavekal's conclusion is that these areas are correcting themselves.

????Developers had borrowed heavily to build in expensive coastal towns, driving up prices further while stretching themselves.

????"And when sales growth slowed in late 2013," the analysts write, "developers starting cutting prices in some cities to boost sales and cash flow. The price cuts were focused in cities with high prices, because that's where they had the best chance of boosting sales. Unfortunately, those large, high-profile cities serve as bellwethers for the national market, and as word of falling prices spread, sales and sentiment were hurt across the country."

????The chart shows the rise, and fall, of pricey coastal markets.

????龍洲經訊等預期，本輪房市低迷至少將持續半年時間。盡管更悲觀的研究人員認為，中國的房市不可持續，全面的房價暴跌正在到來，但眼下，他們經常掛在嘴邊的鬼城并不是推動中國房市下行的原因。（財富中文網）

????譯者：項航

????Gavekal and others are expecting a housing downturn to last for at least half a year. While more bearish researchers believe China's building is unsustainable, and a full-bore meltdown is coming, right now the ghost towns they often cite aren't driving a downtown.