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中俄天然氣交易:外交與環境的雙贏

中俄天然氣交易:外交與環境的雙贏

Ben Geier 2014年05月22日
【編者的話】這場交易背后雙方的利益需求:一方面,烏克蘭的政局動蕩,讓俄羅斯的天然氣市場受到影響;另一方面,中國的環境狀況越來越糟糕,迫切需要增加清潔能源的使用,但是中國的天然氣供應量跟不上。所以這樁十余載的談判落地,令兩國雙贏。

????俄羅斯的天然氣很快將輸送到中國。這是俄方在與歐盟能源政策戰中的最新舉措。

????此舉將使俄羅斯及其天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)擴大與亞洲的貿易,打破長期以來俄羅斯通過西線向歐洲輸送天然氣的傳統,因此具有重要的象征意義。此外,烏克蘭危機爆發后,歐盟正在嘗試減少對莫斯科的依賴,而此舉可以緩解俄羅斯因此受到的影響。據《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)報道,俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司目前供應歐洲所需天然氣總量的30%,其中一半要經過烏克蘭。烏克蘭近期爆發的危機導致這家公司擔憂向歐洲大陸的天然氣輸送可能遭到干擾。

????據《華爾街日報》報道,經過十多年的談判,俄羅斯與中國終于在本周二簽署了協議,由俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司每年向中國供氣380億立方米,相當于中國目前年消耗量的四分之一。但中國的天然氣需求增長迅速,與俄羅斯的交易只能占到中國未來消耗量的一小部分。

????這筆交易的規模沒有爭議,但目前外界還無法明確判斷誰能從中獲利,獲利幾何。俄羅斯新聞機構引用俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司CEO阿列克謝?米勒的話稱,交易總價值為4,000億美元,為期30年。但他表示交易的定價“是商業機密”。據《俄羅斯商業日報》(Vedomosti)報道,通過粗略計算,4,000億美元除以30年的供應量,得出的價格約為每千立方米350美元,略低于歐洲去年支付的360美元的平均價格。但區別在于,俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司首先必須從西伯利亞東部的油田修建新的管道,據《俄羅斯商業日報》報道,新管道的建設成本約為300億美元。

????圍繞價格,俄羅斯和中國已經進行了多年討價還價,即使在周二晚些時候,《金融時報》(Financial Times)引用一位中石油(Petrochina)官員的話稱,由于國內較低的價格,中石油已經在賠錢。米勒先生表示,雙方就天然氣進口設定了“特惠”稅制,意味著俄羅斯利用這個合約填補財政的空間有限。俄羅斯的大部分預算收入均來自石油與天然氣出口。(財富中文網)

????譯者:劉進龍/汪皓

????Russian gas may soon be flowing into China, the latest move in a raw game of energy power politics being played between Moscow and the European Union.

????The move allows energy Gazprom (OGZPY), and Russia in general, to expand its trade with Asia, a hugely symbolic move that breaks with its long tradition of sending its gas westwards to Europe. As such, it could reduce Russia's vulnerability to EU moves to reduce its own dependence on Moscow in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine. Gazprom currently supplies 30% of Europe's gas, according to the Journal report, half of which flows through Ukraine. The recent crisis in that country has led to fears of a disruption in gas flow to the Continent.

????After a decade of negotiations, Russia and China finally signed an agreement Tuesday for Gazprom to pump 38 billion cubic meters of gas into China per year, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. That's about a quarter of what China currently consumes in a year, but its gas demand is growing so fast that the Russian deal only represent a much smaller fraction of future consumption.

????There's no arguing over the size of the deal, but it is far from clear who will make how much money from it. Russian news agencies quoted Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller as putting a $400 billion tag on the overall value of the contract, which will run for 30 years. However, he said the pricing of the deal "is a commercial secret." A rough calculation dividing $400 billion over 30 years of supplies would give a price of around $350 per 1,000 cubic meters, fractionally below the $360 that Europe paid on average last year, according to the newspaper Vedomosti. However, the big difference is that Gazprom will first have to build a new pipeline from its fields in eastern Siberia, which Vedomosti said could cost $30 billion.

????Russia and China have haggled for years over price, and even late Tuesday, the Financial Times was quoting an official from Chinese energy company Petrochina as saying that the company is already losing money on imported gas because of low prices at home. Mr. Miller said the sides envisaged a "preferential" tax regime for the gas exports, suggesting that Russia will have limited room to use the contract to fill its own treasury. Most of Russia's budget revenues still come from oil and gas exports.

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