????其次，哈斯克今年4月在紐約大學（New York University）曾表示，尼爾森公司耗時4年建立的一種新的視頻收視率衡量標準現在已經進入收尾階段。這是一種可以跨媒體、跨設備衡量觀眾的數量規模和參與程度的毛收視率（GRP）標準。以往各大電視公司更容易認同這種收視率標準以建立某種第三方的確認機制。但是現在，靠廣告和娛樂節目生存的老牌電視公司已經受到了來自科技行業的新進者的挑戰。現在，毛收視率（GRP）的計算與谷歌、奈飛（Netflix）和蘋果（Apple）這類公司同樣利益攸關。尤其是憑借全球熱門視頻網站YouTube，谷歌在這個問題上有相當大的利害關系。

????谷歌的創始人團隊熱愛數據，藐視一些無法衡量的東西。他們之所以研究出付費搜索廣告的機制，很大程度上就是由于拉里?佩奇和謝爾蓋?布林絕對不會允許Google.com的網站上出現一張橫幅廣告。這么敏感的一群人怎么可能容忍傳統收視率在統計上的不嚴密，于是沖突就產生了。谷歌、Facebook乃至整個互聯網產業都堅決認為，網友們看過的每一個視頻都應該被計算到收視率里，從而挑戰了傳統電視的效果。

????從傳統上看，尼爾森公司最重要的客戶就是各大電視公司與他們的廣告主。尼爾森公司要想重新站穩腳跟，就需要一個公認的GRP標準來維持它在衡量全球視頻收視率方面的主導地位。尼爾森公司服務的是一個市值上萬億美元的巨大市場，為了取得這個市場上的利益相關方的共識，尼爾森已經花了好幾年的時間進行產品開發和外交公關。

????無數批評人士一直指責尼爾森公司過于依賴來自各大電視網的費用，因此他們的收視率不可信。奧雷塔今年二月來紐約大學在我的課上做主題為“互聯網媒體的歷史”的客座講座時，著意強調了他對尼爾森收視率的正當性的關注，而且他還拿尼爾森公司同樣具有高度爭議性的DVR收視率指標作為尼爾森安于在電視行業里掙錢的另一個例子。

????兩個月后，我問哈斯克對奧雷塔的觀察有什么看法，他的回答好像是在打太極。他說，雖然很多人可能不想相信尼爾森公司，但廣告主們對尼爾森公司的信任程度超過了任何一家傳媒公司。

????最后，他表示，廣告市場仍然需要一名“裁判員”，也就是衡量服務。投資人們普遍相信穆迪或標準普爾的債務評級，美國環保署（EPA）對汽車燃油功率的衡量結果也受到大家認同。哈斯克還表示，尼爾森公司對一個廣告是在NBC上還是Twitter上、是在有線電視上還是在移動媒體上播放并沒有既定的偏好和利益，尼爾森公司只想衡量這些視頻節目和視頻廣告是否有人收看，收看的人是誰。

????尼爾森的變革對電視行業的影響是很大的。尼爾森公司已經重新設計了GRP的計算規則，而這個標準曾經是電視市場稱霸媒體界的資本之一。如果電視繼續通過具有高度沉浸感的廣告聚攏大量觀眾的話，那么投到《海軍罪案調查處》（NCIS）、《美國好聲音》（The Voice）以及其它眾多電視節目上的錢就仍然難以流向別的地方。

????但是通過與一系列數據供應商的合作，尼爾森給人的感覺和它的行動越來越像一家互聯網公司，而且它衡量的精確性也在顯著提高。如今，這家公司正準備在持續演化的視頻傳播環境下，憑借一個公認的GRP標準，去衡量成百上千萬臺設備背后的幾十億觀眾的行為。

????如今的媒體環境呈指數級碎片化，看電視的觀眾群有可能會日益萎縮。（事實上，幾十年來看電視的人數一直減少。）企業的市場部門要想證明一次性預付的廣告采購開支能產生預期效益很不容易。因為隨著數碼設備變的五花八門，視頻傳播渠道越來越多，這些視頻內容被觀眾看到的時間也將是有先有后，而不像前互聯網時代，大家都在同一時間看到電視的內容。

????科技投資人馬克?安德里森曾寫道：“軟件正在吞噬世界。”隨著視頻內容行業發展到一個臨界點，軟件現在也要開始吃掉電視廣告了。消費者可以在數碼設備上通過幾百萬個渠道看視頻。尼爾森必須衡量每一股數據流，而且廣告主們最終也會獲得他們真正想要的東西。將來，廣告將可以使用算法、數據和外幣來購買。

????而梅爾?卡馬金的那種傳奇的廣告銷售技巧，終將像分類廣告和大家書架上的CD一樣，成為明日黃花。（財富中文網）

????本文作者艾倫?科恩是Yashi公司的營銷總監。Yashi是一家位于新澤西州的廣告科技公司。同時，他也是紐約大學的兼職教授，主講互聯網媒體史。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Second, according to Hasker in an April talk at New York University, Nielsen is nearing the conclusion of a four-year odyssey to set measurement standards for video -- a kind of Gross Rating Point (GRP) across all media and devices that measures the size and engagement of the viewing audience. In the past, television networks have more easily agreed to standards in order to create third-party validation mechanisms. But the old boy networks that exist on Madison and Vine have been disrupted by entrants from the technology sector. Now Google, Netflix (NFLX), Apple (AAPL), and others have a stake in how video GRP will be calculated. Because of YouTube, Google has a particularly substantial interest in this debate.

????Google's founders love data and despise the unmeasurable. Paid search came about largely because Larry Page and Sergey Brin simply would not allow banner advertising on Google.com. Compare that sensibility with the imprecision of traditional media measurement and conflicts arise. Google, Facebook, and the Internet industry overall continuously challenge the efficacy of traditional television by insisting that individual streams and video views be watched to be counted.

????Historically, Nielsen's most important customers have been television networks and their advertisers. For Nielsen to stay relevant, it needs a common GRP standard to maintain its dominance in measuring video across the globe. Reaching consensus among stakeholders with trillions of dollars in market value has taken years of product development and diplomacy by the ratings firm.

????Countless critics of Nielsen long have believed the company was so dependent on network television fees that their measurements could not be trusted. In Ken Auletta's guest appearance February in my class at NYU, "The History of Internet Media," he expressed significant concerns about Nielsen's legitimacy, citing the company's highly controversial DVR ratings as another example of the company's coziness with the television industry.

????Two months later, I asked Hasker about Auletta's observation, and he responded as if he were giving a stump speech. However many people may not want to believe in Nielsen, he argued, advertisers trust his company more than they do any individual media company's numbers.

????In the end, he maintains that the advertising marketplace needs a "referee" or measurement service. Investors rely on Moody's or Standard& Poor's to rate debt. The EPA measures the fuel efficiency of automobiles. Hasker claims that Nielsen has no vested interest whether an ad runs on NBC or Twitter -- cable or mobile. The company wants to measure whether programming and advertising are watched and by whom.

????The implications for the television industry are massive. Nielsen has reinvented the GRP, a standard that has been the source of much of the television market's hegemony in media. If television continues to aggregate huge audiences with highly immersive advertising units, then it will remain difficult to unlock the enormous flow of dollars that support NCIS, The Voice, and dozens of other shows on the evening television schedule.

????But in partnering with an array of digital data providers, Nielsen looks, feels, and acts more and more like an Internet company that measures with substantially increased precision. The company is preparing to measure the behavior of billions of people across millions of devices within a continuously evolving distribution environment with one common GRP standard.

????In this exponentially fractured media landscape, television audiences will likely get smaller. (They have been for decades.) Marketers will struggle to justify their upfront advertising purchases because content will be consumed at time-shifted moments using a panoply of devices and distribution services.

????Tech investor Marc Andreessen once wrote, "Software is eating the world." Software will now eat television advertising as the video content industry reaches a programmatic tipping point. Consumers watch on digital devices across millions of channels. Nielsen will measure every stream, and advertisers will finally receive exactly what they order. Advertising will be bought using algorithms, data, and exchanges.

????The amazing Mel Karmazin's Houdini-like tricks are as doomed as the classified ads you once perused or the CDs collecting dust on your shelf.

????Aaron Cohen is chief marketing officer of Yashi, a New Jersey-based adtech company. He is also an adjunct professor at NYU, teaching the history of Internet media.