赴美上市不只是阿里巴巴的大事情
????在美國,“阿里巴巴”(Alibaba)現在的知名度還趕不上“亞馬遜”(Amazon)、“eBay”或“Facebook”。至少現在還是這樣。 ????但是就在今天,這個中國、(據某些預測)甚至是全球最大的電子商務網站有可能在美國提交IPO(首次公開募股)申請。而且,它或許將成為史上(至少在2012年Facebook轟動一時的上市之后)最大規模的IPO之一。 ????IPO并不是什么家喻戶曉的事件,但是阿里巴巴的IPO將大到不容忽視。出于不同原因,人們經常把阿里巴巴描述為亞馬遜、eBay和貝寶(PayPal)——美國所有成功科技公司的混合體。阿巴里里的頂級資產——消費者對消費者(C2C)在線購物網站淘寶網(Taobao)和企業對消費者(B2C)姐妹網站天貓商城(Tmall)——每天共吸引1億以上獨立訪客,是中國訪客人數最多的網站之一。 ????這意味著如果您在中國進行網上購物,您的部分購物款項最后極有可能進入阿里巴巴的金庫。中國五分之四的在線購物收入歸阿里巴巴市場所有。去年“雙十一”(美國“網購星期一”的中國版)期間,阿里巴巴的兩大購物網站24小時內收入達到57.5億美元,相當于美國所有在線零售網站在去年“網購星期一”期間收入的兩倍。 ????美國萊斯大學(Rice University)戰略管理教授和中國商務專家張延表示,“阿里巴巴公司規模龐大,是中國最著名的企業之一?!?/p> ????大多數投資者因為雅虎公司(Yahoo)持有阿里巴巴大量股份而得知阿里巴巴。雅虎的持股可以追溯到2005年雅虎聯合創始人楊致遠和阿里巴巴CEO馬云談判達成的協議。當時,美國科技公司流行對中國前景廣泛的互聯網公司進行投資。 ????如今,雅虎公司持有阿里巴巴24%的股份,必須在阿里巴巴按計劃上市時出售它手頭持有股份的五分之二。因為阿里巴巴將在預期上市前實現收入的迅速增長,位于加州森尼維耳市的雅虎公司將從中受益。 ????4月初,伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)分析師卡洛斯?克金格在雅虎公司發布季度收益后撰寫了一份研究紀要。他指出,“阿里巴巴超越預期,收入同比增長66%,實現了利潤的大幅增長。” ????分析師普遍認為阿里巴巴將在上市時募集至少150億美元。(Facebook在2012年上市時募集160億美元。)克金格預測,阿里巴巴可能的估值將高達2,450億美元,成為美國第九大在標普500(S&P 500)上市的公司,排名緊跟沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)之后。【阿里巴巴沒有回應《財富》雜志(Fortune)提出的關于它IPO的詢問?!?/p> ????至于雅虎公司在阿里巴巴上市后的發展趨勢,目前尚不得而知。投資者對此觀點不一:部分投資者認為,雅虎公司將在首席執行官瑪麗莎?梅耶爾的領導下走向好轉;其他投資者則認為,阿里巴巴上市后,雅虎公司對阿里巴巴的投資將不再是雅虎的依靠,或許使雅虎公司的部分投資者不再繼續對這家低增長的公司投資。 ????“過去,如果您希望持有阿里巴巴的股份,對雅虎公司投資即可。而現在,您可以直接持有阿里巴巴的股份,”投資研究公司B. Riley分析師薩米特?辛哈告訴《財富》雜志。 ????辛哈補充道,他不會提前預測阿里巴巴上市后的最大贏家和輸家。上市只會讓阿里巴巴募集大量資金,變得更加透明。 ????他說:“此外,我認為,從商業角度而言,上市不會產生太大的影響,因為美國的許多公司地理分布與(阿里巴巴)并不相同?!?/p> |
????In the United States, "Alibaba" doesn't have the same ring as "Amazon," "eBay," or "Facebook." Not yet, anyway. ????But as soon as today, the largest e-commerce website in China -- and, according to some estimates, the world -- could file for an initial public offering in the United States. It could be quite possibly one of the largest public offerings in history. (Or at least since Facebook's (FB) blockbuster IPO in 2012.) ????An IPO does not a household name make, but Alibaba's offering is poised to be too big to ignore. The company is often described as a mix of Amazon (AMZN), eBay (EBAY), and PayPal (PYPL) -- all successful U.S. technology companies for very different reasons. Alibaba's top properties, the consumer-to-consumer online shopping portal Taobao and the business-to-consumer sister site Tmall, together attract more than 100 million unique visitors each day and are among China's most visited websites. ????Which means that if you're shopping online in China, it's highly likely that some of your money ends up in Alibaba's coffers. Four out of every five dollars spent online in China goes to an Alibaba marketplace. Last year, during Single's Day -- China's version of Cyber Monday in the U.S. -- Alibaba's top two marketplaces brought in $5.75 billion in 24 hours. That's double what all U.S. online retailers are estimated to have made during last year's Cyber Monday. ????"Alibaba is huge," said Yan Zhang, a professor of strategic management at Rice University and an expert on Chinese businesses. "It's one of the best-known names in China." ????Most investors know Alibaba because of Yahoo's (YHOO) sizable stake in the company, which dates to a 2005 deal negotiated by Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang and Alibaba CEO Jack Ma at a time when it was popular for U.S. technology companies to invest in promising Chinese Internet businesses. ????Today, Yahoo owns 24% of Alibaba and must sell two-fifths of its stake when the company makes its expected offering. The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company stands to benefit as Alibaba's revenue growth picks up steam ahead of the anticipated offering. ????"Holy Alibaba," Bernstein Research analyst Carlos Kirjner wrote in a research note earlier this month after Yahoo reported its quarterly earnings. "Alibaba crushed expectations posting year-over-year revenue growth of 66% and massive margin expansion." ????Analysts generally expect Alibaba to raise at least $15 billion in its offering. (To compare, Facebook raised $16 billion in its 2012 IPO.) Kirjner estimates the possible valuation of Alibaba to be as high as $245 billion, which would make it the ninth-largest U.S.-listed company on the S&P 500, just behind Wal-Mart (WMT). (Alibaba did not respond to a Fortune inquiry regarding the company's IPO.) ????What is less clear is how Yahoo fares in the wake of the offering. Investor outlook has been mixed for the company: Some see it turning around under chief executive Marissa Mayer; others see its Alibaba investment as a crutch the company will be without once it goes public, potentially dissuading some Yahoo investors from sticking with the (lower-growth) company. ????"If you wanted to own Alibaba you invested in Yahoo. Now you can own Alibaba directly," B. Riley analyst Sameet Sinha told Fortune. ????Sinha added that he doesn't anticipate big winners and losers in the wake of Alibaba's IPO. The offering will merely allow Alibaba to raise a lot more capital and become more transparent. ????"Beyond that," he said, "I don't think it's going to have much of an impact from a business standpoint because a lot of the U.S. companies don't have the same geographic footprint [as Alibaba]." |