????一年多來，中國到2015年通過水力壓裂法發(fā)現(xiàn)65億立方米天然氣的目標一直像是白日做夢。這個目標是在2012年公布的，中國政府當時還公布了一個更雄心勃勃的目標，即到2020年生產(chǎn)至少600億立方米天然氣。壓裂法是通過將水和化學物質(zhì)猛壓入巖層釋放出氣藏，是一種存在爭議的技術(shù)。中國還沒有真正掌握壓裂法，怎樣才能在幾年時間里就要從零開始實現(xiàn)這樣的高速增長？

????因此分析人士對中國的這一宏偉計劃一直不以為然。

????上個月月末，情況突然峰回路轉(zhuǎn)。當時，國有油氣巨頭中國石化公司（Sinopec，簡稱“中石化”）宣布它位于四川省境內(nèi)的涪陵頁巖氣田實現(xiàn)了“重大突破”。之后，所有人都改變了看法。中石化和另一家國有油氣巨頭中國石油天然氣集團公司（CNPC，簡稱“中石油”）控制著中國75%的頁巖氣資源。前者表示，到2015年它憑借涪陵氣田能生產(chǎn)50億立方米天然氣，幾乎靠它一家的力量就能實現(xiàn)中國全國的生產(chǎn)目標。中石化還表示，到2017年它在中國的首個大型頁巖氣田將生產(chǎn)100億立方米天然氣，而且目前還在大力開發(fā)更多頁巖氣資源。這家公司總裁還告訴媒體記者，中石化出售旗下加油站業(yè)務的股份，用這些收入來為開發(fā)更多頁巖氣提供資金支持。

????要不是中國政府改變了支持頁巖氣資源開采的激勵政策，可能就不會有涪陵氣田這個重大發(fā)現(xiàn)。中國國土資源部（Ministry of Land and Resources）估計，中國的頁巖氣資源儲量居全球首位，規(guī)模比美國還高三分之一。更重要的是，中國政府將支付給中石化及其它公司新開采天然氣供應的價格提高了40%，同時將未來的價格增長與全球油價掛鉤。中國城市非居民用戶的天然氣價格已上漲了15%。位于香港的龍洲經(jīng)訊公司（GavekalDragonomics）能源分析師奈特?塔普林稱，現(xiàn)在將涪陵的天然氣輸往上海這樣的東部市場已經(jīng)有利可圖。而僅僅幾年前這還是一樁賠本買賣。

????另一項重大的政府改革是由國家能源局（National Energy Administration）主導的。能源局表示，所有天然氣管道都將向第三方開采公司開放，也就是目前在美國占主導地位的小企業(yè)。以前，中國那些規(guī)模較小的開采公司要將氣從開采點運出去時，運輸問題得不到保障。中國石油公司（PetroChina）的母公司中國石油天然氣集團掌握著全國80%天然氣管道的運營權(quán)，以前它不會允許其他公司利用自己的網(wǎng)絡。即使中石化和中石油仍然掌握著中國四分之三的頁巖氣資源，至少現(xiàn)在更多小公司可以開發(fā)剩下的25%儲量，也就離銷售它們自己開發(fā)的天然氣更近了一步。

????目前中國的政治形勢也鼓勵頁巖氣水力壓裂開發(fā)。中石化的老對手中石油一度主導了中國傳統(tǒng)天然氣的生產(chǎn)，占據(jù)了約75%的市場份額。它沒有多少理由要推動非傳統(tǒng)的頁巖氣開發(fā)。但以習近平和李克強為核心的新一屆中國領(lǐng)導人在席卷全國的反腐運動中查處了中石油的一批高管，從而動搖了它的市場地位。由于中石油的影響力已經(jīng)被削弱，這家公司現(xiàn)在不太可能再反對政府的水力壓裂開發(fā)目標。

????目前看來中石化是最大的贏家。它正在涪陵氣田附近修建液化天然氣工廠，計劃將頁巖氣投放到液化天然氣市場。目前，這個市場的燃氣價格不受政府管制，因此可以賣出更高價格。石化市場信息咨詢企業(yè)安迅思公司（ICIS）廣州分公司副總裁廖納（音譯）稱：“頁巖氣的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模還趕不上天然氣，一開始它可能會銷往液化天然氣市場。”

????從更長期來看，中石油和各大跨國企業(yè)將幫助中國充分開發(fā)中國的頁巖氣儲量。殼牌公司（Shell）、雪佛龍公司（Chevron）和康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）都在勘探中國大量的頁巖氣田。而美國能源信息管理局（U.S. Energy Information Administration）的預測數(shù)字比中國同行更為大膽，據(jù)它估算，中國頁巖氣儲量比美國高出68%。

????不過中國仍然面臨著大量的挑戰(zhàn)：中國的地勢遠比美國復雜多樣，頁巖氣埋藏深度有時候是美國的兩倍，因此開采起來成本更高；而水力壓裂法需要大量水，對中國業(yè)已稀缺的水資源來說更是雪上加霜；同時中國也缺乏開采必需的技術(shù)。不過中石化的最新產(chǎn)量預測讓人無法否認，中國在充分開采頁巖氣儲量的道路上又更進了一步。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠

????

????For more than a year, China's goal of recovering 6.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas by 2015 via hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, seemed like a pipe dream. The figure was announced in 2012, along with the government's even more ambitious goal of producing at least 60 billion cubic meters by 2020. How do you grow that fast in just a few years from basically zero, especially when your country is new to fracking, a controversial method of drilling that blasts water and chemicals into rock formations to release trapped gas?

????Analysts had been dismissive.

????Until late last month. That's when everyone's outlook changed after the state oil and gas giant Sinopec (SNP) announced "significant breakthroughs" at its Fuling shale gas field in the country's southern Sichuan province. Sinopec, which along with China's other state-owned oil and gas giant CNPC controls 75% of shale fields in China, said it will almost single-handedly meet China's goal and produce 5 billion cubic meters by 2015 at Fuling. Sinopec said by 2017 it would produce 10 billion cubic meters at China's first big shale gas field and that the company was pushing hard for more shale gas discoveries. Its chairman told reporters that Sinopec would use proceeds from selling a stake in its gas station business to fund more shale fields.

????The Fuling discovery might not have happened if the Chinese government hadn't changed the incentives for drilling shale gas reserves, which the country's Ministry of Land and Resources estimates to be the world's largest and a third-larger in size than America's. Most importantly the government raised the prices paid to Sinopec and others for new gas supply by up to 40% and tied future increases to global oil prices. The price of natural gas for nonresidential users in Chinese cities rose by 15%. Fuling's gas headed to China's eastern markets like Shanghai now has a profit margin, says Nate Taplin, energy analyst at GavekalDragonomics in Hong Kong. Just a couple years ago it was a money-losing proposition.

????The other important government reform came via China's National Energy Administration, which said that all natural gas pipelines would be made open to third-party drillers, the small operators that dominate the landscape in the U.S. Before, smaller Chinese drillers weren't guaranteed transport for their gas from drilling sites. CNPC, the parent of PetroChina, operates 80% of the natural gas pipelines, and it wasn't handing out invitations to use its network. Even though Sinopec and CNPC still control three-quarters of the country's shale blocks, at least now the companies bidding on the other 25% of reserves are one step closer to getting their gas to market.

????The political winds have also encouraged shale gas fracking in China. Sinopec's rival CNPC dominates production of conventional natural gas in the country, with around 75% market share. It didn't have many reasons to push into unconventional shale gas plays. But China's new administration lead by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang has diminished CNPC's stature after targeting top CNPC officials in a nationwide corruption crackdown -- most notably the former CNPC chairman and minister of public security Zhou Yongkang. Because of its reduced influence, CNPC is now less likely to push back against the government's fracking goals.

????Sinopec looks like the biggest winner for now. It's building a liquefied natural gas plant near its Fuling field to move shale gas into the LNG market, where prices are unregulated by the government and can trade higher. "For shale gas, since production is not as big as natural gas, in the beginning it will probably be traded in LNG market," says Liao Na, a vice president at energy consultant ICIS in Guangzhou.

????Over the longer-term, CNPC and multinationals will all help China realize its shale gas potential. Shell (RDSA), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are circling China's massive shale fields. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is more aggressive than its Chinese counterpart, estimating that China's shale gas reserves are 68% higher than those in the U.S.

????Challenges for China remain: The country's topography is more problematic than America's, and deposits are sometimes buried twice as deep in the ground, making shale gas costlier to excavate; the water-intensive fracking process is a drain on China's already scarce resources; and the country still lacks some necessary technology. But Sinopec's new forecast makes it undeniable that China is moving closer to realizing its shale gas potential.