????未來15年，發展中國家將有25億人進入中產階級。在可預見的未來，中國每年將誕生2.5個規模相當于芝加哥的新城市；截至2025年，中國人口超過百萬的城市將達到221個（目前，歐洲百萬人口城市僅有35個）。這種增長速度必將使得石油、天然氣、鋼材、貴金屬、水和其他寶貴資源的需求出現前所未有的增長。如果我們繼續當前的消耗水平，商品價格、食物價格和污染水平就會激增，給商界帶來日益嚴峻的風險。

????麥肯錫（McKinsey）董事馬特?羅杰斯和斯坦福大學（Stanford）教授斯蒂芬?赫克在合作撰寫的新書《資源革命：如何抓住本世紀最大的商機》（Resource Revolution: How To Capture the Biggest Business Opportunity in a Century）一書中頗有見地地提出了管理者應該如何改變對資源的認識，才能讓自己的公司在21世紀不僅生存下去，還能茁壯成長。

????《財富》雜志（Fortune）的布萊恩?杜梅因近期采訪了馬特?羅杰斯，討論了4月1日出版的這本新書。

????傳統的能源觀念認為，我們即將耗光資源，人類將走向滅亡。但你們認為，我們會進入一場所謂的“資源革命”，而這將是21世紀最大的經濟機遇。

????未來二十年，全球經濟增長將導致我們面臨資源壓力，許多人已經對此心存憂慮。而我們之所以有信心寫這本書，是因為我們看到，人類可以將納米技術、材料學、信息技術和生物學的進步與傳統工業技術相結合，來滿足資源需求，而且難度要低于大多數人的預期。

????能舉個例子嗎？

????要想節約資源，我們必須大幅提高生產率，而它意味著要從根本上改變我們生產產品和應對客戶的方式。而這種跳躍是要將生產率提高十倍。我們喜歡開玩笑說，你買一輛車就是為了停車——我們使用汽車的時間往往僅有4%，而其中有一半的時間汽車是在空轉，或者是我們在給它尋找停車位。于是各種新型商業模式就有了用武之地，例如拼車服務Zipcar、在線出租車公司Uber和Lyft等。他們可以幫助提高汽車的使用率，這意味著我們沒有必要因為人口增多而增加汽車生產。大家可能會說，我們對汽車的需求可能在某個時刻達到頂點。許多年輕人并不想花一大筆錢來養一輛車。

????你在書中還提到節約資源的另外一種方式，也就是將設備看成一種服務。

????沒錯，通用電氣（GE）現在就在按使用時間出售噴氣式引擎。通用電氣擁有引擎，同時提供所有的維護。引擎上配有傳感器，使通用電氣可對引擎進行監控和維修。相比航空公司的維護，通用電氣自行維護可以讓引擎保持更長時間的運行，提高運行效率。由此可以節省巨額運營費用——航空公司無需購買更多飛機，因為他們擁有的飛機可以飛行更長時間。通用電氣開始在醫療設備，甚至油田設備領域采用同樣的模式。

????Over the next 15 years, another 2.5 billion people in the developing world will join the middle class. China will add 2? new cities the size of Chicago every year for the foreseeable future and will have 221 cities with over a million in population by 2025 (compared with 35 cities this size in Europe today). That kind of growth is going to create an unprecedented demand for oil, gas, steel, precious metals, water, and other precious resources. If we keep on our current course of consumption, commodity prices, food prices, and pollution levels are likely to spike, greatly increasing risks for business.

????In their insightful new book Resource Revolution: How To Capture the Biggest Business Opportunity in a Century McKinsey director Matt Rogers and Stanford Professor Stefan Heck lay out a compelling road map for how managers need to change the way they think about resources if they want to not only survive but also thrive in the 21st Century.

????Fortune's Brian Dumaine caught up with Matt Rogers recently to discuss the book, which will be published on April 1.

????The conventional wisdom about resources is that we're running out, and we're all going to die. But you believe we're about to enter what you call a a resource revolution and that it will be the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.

????Over the next two decades global growth will stress our resources, and that has a lot of people concerned. What gave us confidence to write the book is that we saw that you could combine advances in nanotechnology, materials science, information technology, and biology with traditional industrial technologies and meet resource requirements more easily than most expect.

????Can you give us an example?

????If we want to conserve our resources, we need to see big jumps in productivity, and that means fundamental changes in the way we make products and work with our customers. We're talking about 10X productivity improvements. We like to joke that you buy a car in order to park -- typically we only use our cars 4% of the time, and half of that time cars sit idle in traffic or looking for parking. This is where new business models like the car sharing service Zipcar, and online taxi companies like Uber and Lyft come into play. They can help increase usage of cars, and that means that we won't have to build as many cars for an increasing population. You might even say we might hit peak demand for autos at some point. Many of the new generation don't want to spend a large chunk of capital to own a car.

????You also say in the book that another way to save resources is to see equipment as a service.

????Yes, GE (GE) now sells jet engines by the hour of use. GE owns the engines and does all the servicing. It has sensors on engines today that let them monitor and repair them. The company can keep these engines running longer and better than the airlines can. The operational savings are significant -- the airlines don't have to buy as many planes because the ones they have are in the air longer. GE is starting to do the same thing with medical equipment, and even oilfield equipment.