????私募基金瑟伯勒斯資本管理公司（Cerberus Capital Management）斥資94億美元收購美國食雜店經營商Safeway之后，人們圍繞這筆交易計算出了各種各樣的數字，其中一個數字最引人注意：市場份額。鑒于瑟伯勒斯資本管理公司同時還擁有Safeway的對手企業Albertson's，雙方合并后，新公司在美國食雜市場中的份額將上升42%。

????2013年，Safeway旗下1335家門店實現銷售額360億美元。加上Albertson's旗下的店鋪，新公司的規模幾乎可以達到傳統超市領軍企業克羅格（Kroger）的水平。不過，合并后公司的市場份額只有5.4%（甚至可能更少，原因是有可能剝離部分門店，以免遭到反壟斷調查）。歐睿信息咨詢公司（Euromonitor International）的數據顯示，沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）在食雜市場中的份額接近30%。克羅格的市場份額為9.6%，2013年的銷售額為980億美元。

????不過，克羅格和Safeway都面臨著同樣的挑戰。這些挑戰一方面來自沃爾瑪、好市多（Costco）和其他大型折扣零售商及倉儲式超市，另一方面則來自專門銷售天然食品的零售商，比如全食超市（Whole Foods）和Trader Joe's。問題還不止于此，不斷變化的購物習慣讓越來越多的人開始到主營藥品的雜貨店、一元店和網店購買食雜商品，而且網購這類產品的人數還在不斷增多。我們記憶中的傳統連鎖食雜店已經不復存在，剩下來的食雜零售商要么必須適應環境，要么就會消亡。

????經濟衰退及其余波讓人們徹底相信需要進行轉型，這就是促成本次合并的原因。Safeway一直表現低迷，它在適應環境方面付出的努力不足以改變人們的購物習慣，也不足以改變它自上而下的管理方式。2012年利潤下跌17%以上和2013年利潤持平就體現了這一點。彭博新聞（Bloomberg News）一位分析師估算，本次合并對Safeway的估值是這家公司2013年息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的5.5倍左右，只是同類并購交易中估值水平的一半多一點兒。

????Albertson's首席執行官鮑勃?米勒接受《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）采訪時表示，他們并沒有在合并后關閉任何門店的計劃，“我們打算把兩家公司的現有零售業務都保留下來”。然而，要成功合并，這些零售業務就必須改變行進的步伐——Safeway得剝離那些敏感的“不作為”店鋪。但問題是用什么來取代它們。

????去年，消費市場研究機構Packaged Facts在一篇報告中指出：“雖然超市仍是食品零售的主要力量，但它們已經不再繼續發揮主導作用。”消費者的決定權越來越大，他們要么尋求更低的價格，要么尋求更健康的產品，無論出于哪種目的，他們都會尋求更為多樣化的渠道。

????Safeway這樣的中等市場規模的公司必須抵御來自天然食品店和專賣店的競爭，同樣的，沃爾瑪對食品零售業的沖擊也不可低估。16年前，沃爾瑪在食雜市場的份額還只有4%，但現在已經增長到接近30%。食雜產品目前占沃爾瑪收入的一半。2011年，美國財政部社區發展金融機構基金（Community Development Financial Institutions Fund）在一份報告中這樣介紹食雜行業的情況：美國最大的10家食雜連鎖經營商擁有整個行業35%的店鋪，在行業總收入中所占的份額則為68%左右。這兩個數字之間的差距幾乎完全由沃爾瑪造成，它所有的店面都很大，其中容納的商品數量遠遠超過大多數競爭對手（好市多也是造成這個差距的因素之一）。

????因此，在傳統食雜連鎖領域出現了整合以及資產剝離。把Safeway和Albertson's（以及二者旗下多個連鎖店品牌）加在一起，再把它們的采購和經銷系統合并起來，也無法和沃爾瑪的采購能力抗衡，價格方面也無法和后者相匹敵，但這至少能幫助它們在中等規模市場和克羅格展開競爭。擁有2600多家門店的克羅格仍將是這個領域的領軍者之一。瑟伯勒斯資本管理公司則擁有2400多家店鋪和16個品牌，包括Albertson's、Von's、Randall's和Jewel-Osco。

????近年來，克羅格在做出必要的調整方面一直比Safeway更積極。它的策略一直是用多元化抵御來自高端和低端領域的挑戰。1月份，克羅格完成了對食雜連鎖經營商Harris Teeter的收購，進而獲得了約200家高檔店鋪，同時還擴大了在美國東南部的經營范圍。同時，這家公司巧妙地度過了經濟滑坡時期，途徑是讓現有門店進一步以價值為導向，以及通過返現來吸引對價格比較敏感的購物者。

????10年來，克羅格的同店銷售額增速一直不減，2013年第四季度的增長率達到了4.3%；而Safeway的同店銷售額只增長了1.6%。

????Of all the numbers that have been thrown around regarding the $9.4 billion acquisition of Safeway (SWY) by Cerberus Capital Management, the private-equity company that owns rival grocery chain Albertson's, one metric stands out: market share. After the merger, the combined companies' share of the American grocery market will rise by 42%.

????Safeway's 1,335 stores racked up $36 billion in sales in 2013. Adding Albertson's stores will create a company that's almost on a level with the larger Kroger (KR), the leader among conventional supermarkets. But the combined companies' market share post-merger will be just 5.4% (likely less since some stores will likely be divested to forestall antitrust action), and Wal-Mart's share of the grocery business is nearly 30%, according to Euromonitor International. Kroger has 9.6% of the total market and $98 billion in 2013 sales.

????Kroger and Safeway, though, are both facing the same set of challenges, not only, on one side, from Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST), and other large discounters and warehouse stores, but also, on the other side, from natural grocers and specialty stores like Whole Foods (WFM) andTrader Joe's. And it doesn't end there: Changing shopping habits are sending more people to drugstores, dollar stores, and, increasingly, websites to buy their groceries. The traditional chain grocery store as we know it is over, and the remaining players must either adapt or die.

????The need for transformation, which was brought into stark relief by the recession and its aftermath, is what spurred this merger. Safeway has been a poor performer, not doing enough to adapt to changing shopping habits or to alter its top-down management approach. This is reflected in its flat earnings in 2013, after a drop of more than 17% in 2012. The deal is valued at about 5.5 times the past year's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization -- just a little over half what similar deals command, according an analysis by Bloomberg News.

????Albertson's CEO Bob Miller told the Wall Street Journal that there are no plans to close any stores after the merger: "We intend on keeping the existing retail footprint of both companies," he said. But to succeed, those feet will have to be shod in different shoes -- Safeway needs to kick off its sensible loafers. The question is what to replace them with.

????"Although supermarkets remain the majority force in food shopping, they are no longer calling the shots," concluded a report last year by Packaged Facts. The shots are increasingly being called by consumers, who are looking for either lower prices or healthier choices -- and, in either case, more variety.

????As much as mid-market grocers like Safeway have to fend off competition from natural and specialty stores, the impact of Wal-Mart on the retail food industry should not be underestimated. Its share of the grocery market has risen from 4% just 16 years ago to nearly 30% today. Groceries now represent half of Wal-Mart's revenues. A 2011 report on the grocery industryby the Treasury Department's Community Development Financial Institutions Fund paints the picture: The top 10 grocery chains in the United States accounted for about 35% of the total number of stores, but about 68% of total industry revenues. The disparity there is almost entirely because of Wal-Mart, which is able to stock many more products in each of its huge stores than most of its competitors. (Costco is also a factor.)

????Hence, there is consolidation and asset-shedding among traditional grocery chains. Putting Safeway and Albertson's (and their many branded chains) together -- and combining their procurement and distribution systems -- won't result in parity with Wal-Mart's purchasing power, or allow the company to match Wal-Mart's prices, but it will at least help it compete with Kroger for the middle market. Kroger will still be tops in that category, with more than 2,600 stores to Cerberus's more than 2,400 under 16 different names, including Albertson's, Von's, Randall's, and Jewel-Osco.

????Kroger has moved more aggressively than Safeway in recent years to make needed changes. Its strategy has been to diversify as a way to fend off challenges from both the high and low ends. In January it completed its purchase of the Harris Teeter chain, giving it about 200 upscale stores and enlarging its presence in the southeast. At the same time, it deftly navigated the economic downturn by making its existing stores more value-oriented and by launching a rewards program to appeal to price-conscious shoppers.

????Kroger's decade's worth of same-store sales growth continues unabated. That number grew by 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2013, while Safeway's same-store sales grew by just 1.6%.