????大約在30年前，任天堂（Nintendo）賦予了視頻游戲行業(yè)新生，給予了它再次發(fā)展的機(jī)會。1985年，原創(chuàng)的任天堂娛樂系統(tǒng)（Nintendo Entertainment System）在北美國際玩具展覽會（North American International Toy Fair）上亮相時，甚至已經(jīng)沒人想玩視頻游戲了。當(dāng)時，視頻游戲業(yè)的收入一落千丈，已經(jīng)從1983年的32億美元狂跌至1985年的1億美元。

????時間快進(jìn)到2013年，電視游戲行業(yè)已經(jīng)“升級”，年收入達(dá)到了930億美元——根據(jù)美國咨詢公司高德納（Gartner）的研究，這個數(shù)值將會在2015年達(dá)到1,110億美元。如今的問題在于，任天堂是否仍然是做大這塊蛋糕的一份子。1889年，這家公司成立時是一家游戲紙牌的生產(chǎn)商，多年后才不得不轉(zhuǎn)型做游戲。如今，面對Wii U電視游戲主機(jī)的銷量跳水，任天堂恐怕又得再次轉(zhuǎn)型了。

????上個月，任天堂總裁巖田聰宣布，公司調(diào)整了截至2014年3月31日的財年的合并財務(wù)預(yù)測。最新的預(yù)計(jì)不容樂觀：任天堂將Wii U的預(yù)計(jì)銷量下調(diào)了超過三分之二，從原來的900萬臺減少到了280萬臺，還將預(yù)計(jì)的游戲銷量下調(diào)一半減少到了1,900萬套。2012年11月推出的Wii U遠(yuǎn)不如初代Wii火爆。后者于2006年面世，全球銷量已經(jīng)超過了1億臺。

????然而，任天堂的不幸之一在于，盡管它的初代Wii走俏，卻并沒有完全帶動游戲軟件的銷量，而后者的大賣才是電視游戲的硬件制造商想要、甚至一定要看到的。獨(dú)立電視游戲分析家比利?皮吉昂說：“硬件營銷的全部意義在于出售游戲軟件。比起其他廠商，任天堂確實(shí)從硬件上實(shí)現(xiàn)了盈利，但這點(diǎn)利潤最后真的沒什么意義。”

????初代Wii確實(shí)擁有龐大的用戶基礎(chǔ)，不過這還不夠。皮吉昂說：“他們已經(jīng)賣掉了那么多主機(jī)，就應(yīng)該隨之推出更多的游戲軟件。而很多情況下人們購買了Wii，卻只玩隨機(jī)附帶的那一款游戲。”

????自任天堂于1月宣布下調(diào)預(yù)期以來，人們就開始提出問題：任天堂是應(yīng)堅(jiān)持自己的戰(zhàn)略，再試一試，還是應(yīng)該換種方式解決問題？（公主興許就在下個城堡里呢？）從1月中旬巖田聰發(fā)表聲明起，就有議論認(rèn)為，這家公司應(yīng)當(dāng)將戰(zhàn)略中心轉(zhuǎn)向?yàn)槠渌O(shè)備開發(fā)游戲。信息和數(shù)據(jù)分析公司IHS Technology的游戲調(diào)研主管皮爾斯?哈丁-羅爾斯表示，如果任天堂將馬里奧和其他小伙伴們移植到手機(jī)和平板電腦上，就可以在短期內(nèi)增加公司的收入。不過，任天堂似乎已經(jīng)決定堅(jiān)持自身的核心戰(zhàn)略。

????哈丁-羅爾斯在一份市場觀察報告中寫道：“與蘋果（Apple）、谷歌（Google）、甚至維爾福（Valve）類似，任天堂遵循著自己的產(chǎn)品開發(fā)路線，對追隨收效甚微的市場潮流毫不動心。短期效益和微薄收入無法撼動它長期的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)。任天堂圍繞著創(chuàng)新主題擲重金豪賭，這種策略增加了風(fēng)險，但卻能帶來豐厚的回報。”

????哈丁-羅爾斯表示，任天堂已經(jīng)承認(rèn)Wii U的處境非常糟糕，但公司不會考慮任何短期的補(bǔ)救措施，比如降價。相反，任天堂或許會將注意力轉(zhuǎn)向Wii UGamePad游戲手柄這樣的配件。但這些舉措甚至連短期內(nèi)的問題都解決不了。

????Nearly 30 years ago, Nintendo essentially gave the videogame industry a new life, and a second chance. In 1985, when the original Nintendo Entertainment System debuted at the North American International Toy Fair, no one even wanted to think about videogames after the great crash that saw revenues fall from $3.2 billion in 1983 to just $100 million in 1985.

????Fast-forward to 2013. The industry has "leveled up," so to speak, to $93 billion in 2013 -- and according to research from Gartner, that figure could reach $111 billion by 2015. The question now is whether Nintendo will still be a part of it. The company, which was founded in 1889 as a playing-card maker, has had to reinvent itself over the years. It may need to do so again as it faces declining sales of its Wii U videogame console.

????Last month, Nintendo president Satoru Iwata announced that the company had revised its full-year consolidated financial forecast for the fiscal year ending Mar. 31, 2014. Its new outlook was not good: Nintendo cut its forecast for its Wii U's annual sales by more than two thirds, from 9 million to 2.8 million, and also halved the projection for game sales to just 19 million units. The Wii U, which came out in November 2012, is far from the hit that was the original Wii, which came out in 2006 and has sold more than 100 million units worldwide.

????However, part of Nintendo's woes could be that the original Wii sold well, but didn't exactly result in massive subsequent software sales, which is what any videogame hardware maker wants -- and even has to see. "The whole point of a hardware play is to sell software," independent videogame analyst Billy Pidgeon said. "Nintendo does make money on the hardware while others don't, but in the end that is really inconsequential."

????The original Wii did have a great install base, but that wasn't enough, Pidgeon said. "They had so much hardware out there that it should have moved a lot more software," he said. "There were far too many cases where the Wii was bought by people who just played the one game that came with it."

????Since the January announcement, the question has been raised: Should Nintendo stick with its strategy and try again, or move on to a different approach? (Is the princess in the next castle?) Since the mid-January statements by Iwata, there has been chatter that the company could shift its focus to developing games for other devices. Piers Harding-Rolls, director of games research at IHS Technology, said that this could lead to short-term revenue growth as Mario and friends move to mobile devices and tablets. But it appears that the company has already opted to stick to its core strategy.

????"Nintendo, similar to Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and perhaps even Valve, follows its own product development path and is reticent to follow market trends where it can only make a marginal impact," Harding-Rolls noted in his market insight report. "A short-term, or marginal impact is not aligned to its long-term strategic goals where it seeks to make relatively big bets around innovation, which increases risk but offers significant rewards."

????Nintendo has acknowledged that the Wii U is in a terrible position, Harding-Rolls said, but the company has ruled out any short-term fixes such as lowering the price. Instead, Nintendo may seek to concentrate on accessories such as the Wii U GamePad. But that could do little to solve the problems even in the short term.