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比特幣能顛覆匯兌市場嗎?

比特幣能顛覆匯兌市場嗎?

David Z. Morris 2014-02-12
ZipZap這樣的比特幣倡導者和初創公司希望借助這種虛擬貨幣降低現有匯兌服務的高額手續費,讓跨國員工能夠以幾乎免費的價格把錢寄回家,從而為消除世界的貧困現象獻一份力。但是匯兌市場中像西聯國際匯款公司這樣的巨頭并不打算坐以待斃。

????艾倫?薩法西認為現有的匯兌服務提供商自鳴得意、效率低下,對通過可用的在線識別和合規手段來降低成本置若罔聞。“我在大概一年前去了趟西聯匯款。整張申請單都需要手工填寫,花了我10分鐘時間,然后柜臺后面的女士又花了10分鐘時間把信息輸入電腦。我為什么不自己在電腦上打好了再過去呢?”他還問道:“為什么西聯匯款或速匯金(不)在第一次交易之后給你打個折呢?”,因為交易成功這本身就說明已經滿足基本法律規定了。ZipZap已經開始采用這些方法——它的所有交易也都符合相關的英國法律。薩法西說:“不要讓人耍了,說滿足規定需要花很多錢,這都是騙人的。”國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)對此表示贊同,并在一份報告中指出:“缺乏透明度”是全球范圍內匯兌價格居高不下的主要原因。

????ZipZap希望以類似現金兌換比特幣的收費提供比特幣兌換現金的服務,這就意味著比起西聯匯款11%的價位,佛羅里達到肯尼亞的匯兌只需要大約3%的手續費。薩法西提醒說:“這不會在一夜之間就發生,”但這種情況會改變匯兌相關領域的經濟情況——并給現有的匯兌服務提供商帶來巨大的挑戰。至于ZipZap自身如何通過這些交易實現盈利,給員工開工資,薩法西推測,他的公司和類似的服務提供商也許最終會像某些網游一樣,采用“免費+增值”模式,“給全球各地想要買賣比特幣的用戶提供免費服務,同時你也出售一些用戶愿意購買的附加服務。”最后,他豪情萬丈地說:“ZipZap會找到其他方法來盈利,絕不會剝削大眾。”

????然而,實際上,薩法西偉大的長期構想也許會是導致他破產的一個因素。它就是一個甚至沒有必要將比特幣兌換成現金的世界。比如,他說:“85%的匯兌實際上是賬單支付。會有一些讓人們使用比特幣付款的服務在網上涌現。”任何地方的人都能以低廉的價格給其他任何人匯款。同樣的情況也許最終會發生在商品上,比特幣錢包服務商KryptoKit的安東尼?迪?約里奧說:“等到越來越多的商家開始接受(比特幣),你就不用把它兌換成本地貨幣了。”一旦現金從這個等式中消失,從一個比特幣錢包到另一個的全球匯兌就可以在幾分鐘內完成,花費也是微乎其微。

????Appleseed的施特勞斯的預言則比較悲觀:政府會對比特幣進行管制,它的功能將不復存在。“中國的反應就是我認為各國政府未來將會采取的行動。”中國已經禁止銀行開展現金兌換比特幣的交易。“比特幣能夠讓人繞開所有的反洗錢法律……因此政府不可能給它亮綠燈。”

????政府如果真刀真槍地開始制裁比特幣,對薩法西來說則是一場災難,不僅是作為一個商人,而是作為一名世界公民。他說:“有60億人馬上就可以從比特幣中獲益。我們需要專注于確保比特幣的繁榮發展,獲得成功,讓人們擺脫貧困。”(財富中文網)

????譯者:嚴匡正

????Alan Sahafi accuses established remittance players of complacency and inefficiency, ignoring cost savings of available online identification and compliance methods. "I went to a Western Union place a year or so ago. I had to write the entire application by hand, and it took me 10 minutes, and it took the lady behind the counter another 10 minutes to type it up. Why wasn't I doing that on my computer before I went there?" Further, he asks, "why [don't] Western Union or Moneygram offer you a discount after your first transaction?", after which basic compliance is fulfilled. ZipZap is already using those methods -- all of its transactions meet relevant U.K. regulations. "Don't let people fool you that this thing costs a lot of money," says Safahi. "It's just smoke and mirrors." The International Monetary Fund agrees, saying in a report that "lack of transparency" is a major reason for high remittance costs worldwide.

????ZipZap expects to offer cash-out fees similar to those for cash-in, meaning that the Florida-to-Kenya transaction would cost about 3% to Western Union's 11%. "It's not going to happen overnight," Safahi warns, but that scenario would transform economies dependent on remittances -- and present a huge challenge to existing providers. As for how ZipZap itself will make money on these transactions and still pay agents, Safahi speculates that his and similar services may ultimately operate on a "freemium" model similar to some online games, "where you provide free service to anyone anywhere who wants to buy and sell bitcoin, and you sell additional services that people are willing to pay for." Ultimately, he says with passion, "ZipZap will find other ways to make money than gouging people."

????In fact, though, Safahi's greatest long-term dream seems to be one that would put him out of business -- a world where cashing out of bitcoin isn't even necessary. For instance, he says, "85% of remittance is basically bill payment. There are services coming online that will let people pay bills with bitcoin," which could be done from any locale to any other very cheaply. The same may eventually go for goods: "When you have more and more merchants accepting [bitcoin], you wouldn't have to be converting it back to local currencies," says Anthony Di Iorio of KryptoKit, a bitcoin wallet service. Once cash is removed from the equation, global remittances, from one bitcoin wallet to another, could be executed in minutes and cost tiny fractions of a percent.

????Appleseed's Strauss predicts a darker future, in which governments regulate bitcoin's functionality out of existence. "The Chinese came out with what I would expect governments to do going forward," banning banks from allowing cash-for-bitcoin transactions. "Bitcoin allows for avoidance of all AML laws ... There's no way governments are going to allow it."

????A true government crackdown on bitcoin would be disastrous for Safahi, not just as a businessman, but as a global citizen. "There are 6 billion people who can benefit from bitcoin immediately," he says. "We need to be focused on making sure bitcoin thrives, and helping it grow and be successful and bring people out of poverty."

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