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比特幣能顛覆匯兌市場嗎?

比特幣能顛覆匯兌市場嗎?

David Z. Morris 2014-02-12
ZipZap這樣的比特幣倡導者和初創公司希望借助這種虛擬貨幣降低現有匯兌服務的高額手續費,讓跨國員工能夠以幾乎免費的價格把錢寄回家,從而為消除世界的貧困現象獻一份力。但是匯兌市場中像西聯國際匯款公司這樣的巨頭并不打算坐以待斃。

????今年2月6日,位于舊金山、提供比特幣服務的初創公司ZipZap宣布將在英國的28,000家門店提供現金兌換比特幣服務,其中包括Spar和樂購Express(Tesco Express)這樣無所不在的便利店。購買比特幣的顧客需要將ZipZap賬戶與比特幣錢包關聯,然后把一個可以掃描的條形碼打印或加載到智能手機里,帶進ZipZap的門店。柜員會掃描條形碼,之后接受顧客的現金支付。幾分鐘內,比特幣便會通過ZipZap兌換比特幣的合作伙伴打入顧客的賬戶中。這項服務目前收費3.95英鎊(約6.50美元),顧客最多可以購買價值300英鎊(500美元)的比特幣。

????這項服務完善了近期Overstock.com和Tigerdirect.com這類大型網絡零售商接受比特幣支付的行動——目前,至少在英國,非專業人士也可以輕易地購買和消費比特幣了。不過,ZipZap的最終目標不僅在于幫助發達國家的人民購買比特幣,而是希望在全球范圍內提供比特幣與現金互相兌換的服務。ZipZap拉美地區經理杰奎因?莫雷諾說:“我們正走在提高品牌信譽度的道路上,至少是在現金兌換比特幣這一流程上。我們隨后會啟動比特幣兌回現金的流程。”ZipZap首席執行官艾倫?薩法西說:“(買方)獲得了比特幣后就可以在網上使用,也可以把它送給在世界各地的家人?!蓖ㄟ^在全球范圍內提供近乎免費的比特幣兌換渠道,ZipZap有望打造一個與西聯國際匯款公司(Western Union)和速匯金(Moneygram)抗衡的匯兌系統。

????比特幣的擁躉們常聲稱,匯兌行業從外來務工人員和未能得到充分金融服務的人群那里得到了近乎壟斷性的利潤。就這點而言,薩法西顯然身負重任。他引用的數據顯示:全球每年匯兌額超過5,000億,手續費平均為9%,最高達到了25%甚至更高。他說:“可以通過減少窮人的匯兌費用,幫助他們擺脫貧困?!?/p>

????不過,對于那些常被引用的收費標準是否準確,比特幣系統又是否具備改變匯兌市場的潛力,有人提出了質疑。研究機構美洲對話(Inter-American Dialogue)中專門從事匯兌研究的高級研究員曼紐爾?奧羅斯科說:“我知道非洲的每一個匯兌點,他們在胡說八道。把錢匯到非洲的手續費大概是6%?!蔽髀搮R款的收費更高——通過快速在線搜索,我們發現把500美元從佛羅里達匯到肯尼亞,需要支付39美元,西聯匯款還要收取超過3%的匯率差,總計約11%的手續費。

????奧羅斯科和其他人表示,匯兌服務在滿足“反洗錢”(Anti Money Laundering,AML)和“客戶身份驗證”(Know Your Customer,KYC)的規定上,需要投入大量難以削減的成本。實際上,“執行標準已經越來越嚴格”,隸屬于西聯匯款的Appleseed Fund的投資組合經理喬什?施特勞斯表示。他說:“為了滿足規定,(西聯匯款)2014年的利潤將會降低大約8%,”不過也會讓競爭對手出局。施特勞斯表示,一旦比特幣的競爭對手也需要遵從同樣的標準(目前這項標準僅適用于比特幣換成現金的情況),他們就幾乎得不到價格優勢。將比特幣作為匯兌媒介還存在其他的風險和成本,比如甚至在短暫的轉讓過程中,持有的比特幣匯率也容易出現較大的匯率波動;比特幣的開發系統也至少存在欺詐的風險,安全等級也不夠高。綜上所述,奧羅斯科對市場將出現大規模變動的論調持懷疑態度。“有人認為目前匯兌的成本過高,而類似比特幣的模式可以降低成本。我認為這種觀點并不準確?!?/p>

????西聯匯款的首席信息官大衛?湯普森關注了現有服務商在合規性和安全性上的優勢。“一個符合法律規定的系統……需要下大力氣進行管理。它需要擁有能夠符合規定的網絡?!北忍貛攀褂昧藢Φ染W絡達成的密碼協議模型來保證在網絡上交易的安全性,而西聯匯款則完全擁有和掌控著一個專門架構的全球網絡。西聯匯款還有專門的零售店,而ZipZap的項目則是通過與現有的零售金融業的服務商合作來開展的。根據杰奎因?莫雷諾的說法,比起擁有專用設施的公司,ZipZap此舉能以更低的成本在更多地點提供他們的服務。

????不過,湯普森確實曾經說過:“一旦我們了解到顧客確實需求這項服務(比特幣匯兌),我們會正視它,同時把它作為新貨幣納入我們的服務范圍?!彼硎疚髀搮R款有能力“運營任何種類的貨幣……我們可以把它(比特幣)通過我們的網絡轉變為可以接受的實體?!彼麤]有詳細說明這是否會借助某些代幣或衍生系統實現,因為比特幣本身只能通過比特幣網絡進行轉移。湯普森拒絕在本周二的盈利電話會議之前就西聯匯款可能的收費趨勢發表觀點。

????On Feb. 6, San Francisco-based Bitcoin services startup ZipZap announced the launch of cash-for-bitcoin services at 28,000 retail locations in the U.K., including omnipresent convenience stores such as Spar and Tesco Express. To buy bitcoin, buyers connect a ZipZap account to their bitcoin wallet, then print or load to their smartphone a scannable barcode that they take to a ZipZap affiliate location. A clerk scans their barcode, then accepts their cash payment. Bitcoins arrive in their wallets within minutes through one of ZipZap's partner bitcoin exchanges. Fees for the service are currently £3.95 (about $6.50), with a maximum £300.00 ($500) worth of bitcoin purchased.

????The service provides a complement to recent adoption by major online retailers likeOverstock.com (OSTK) and Tigerdirect.com -- it is now, at least in the U.K., as easy for the non-tech savvy to buy bitcoin as it is to spend it. ZipZap's ultimate goal, though, is not just to help curious first-worlders buy bitcoin, but to provide both cash-in and cash-out capabilities globally. "We're in the process of making our brand trustable, at least for the cash-in process, and then we will launch the cash-out process," says Joaquin Moreno, ZipZap's regional manager for Latin America. "Once [buyers] get the bitcoin, they can use them online, or they can send it to their family around the world," says ZipZap CEO Alan Safahi. By providing on- and off-ramps to the global, nearly-free Bitcoin network, ZipZap would create a remittance system to rival those of Western Union and Moneygram.

????Bitcoin advocates regularly call out the remittance industry as a near-monopoly profiting from migrant workers and the underbanked. Safahi is clearly a man on a mission in this regard: "You help the poor get out of poverty by reducing their remittance cost," he says, citing global remittance volume of more than a half trillion dollars a year, and fees that average 9% and peak at 25% or more.

????But some question the accuracy of those often-cited fee rates, and the potential of bitcoin systems to change the remittance landscape. "I know every single location where you can pay in Africa, and that's nonsense. The cost of sending money to Africa is about 6%," says Manuel Orozco, senior fellow specializing in remittances at the Inter-American Dialogue. Western Union's fees are higher -- a quick online search shows that sending $500 from Florida for pickup in cash in Kenya costs $39, plus a more than 3% exchange rate spread taken by Western Union (WU), for a rate of about 11%.

????Orozco and others cite compliance with Anti Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) regulations as a large irreducible cost of remittance service. In fact, "regulatory compliance is spiking," says Josh Strauss, Portfolio Manager of the Appleseed Fund, which is long on Western Union. "Compliance will squeeze [Western Union's] 2014 profits by something like 8%," but will also keep competitors out, he says. Strauss says that once bitcoin-based competitors have to meet the same compliance standards, which now only affect bitcoin at the point where it is exchanged for cash, they will have little if any price advantage. There are other risks and costs to bitcoin as a remittance vehicle, including that of holding highly volatile bitcoin even briefly in the process of a transfer, and at least the perceived risk of fraud and lax security in a developing system. Ultimately, Orozco is skeptical of claims about major disruption. "There is an assumption that money transfers today are very expensive, and that a model like bitcoin will lower the cost. I think that assumption is inaccurate."

????Western Union CIO David Thompson focuses on established players' compliance and security advantages. "A compliant system ... requires a lot of control. It requires a network that is enabled for compliance." While bitcoin uses a peer-to-peer cryptographic model to ensure the security of transactions over the internet, Western Union fully owns and controls a global network of dedicated wires. It also has dedicated retail outlets, while ZipZap projects are operating through partnerships with existing retail financial servicers. According to Joaquin Moreno, this will allow ZipZap to offer its service in more locations for a lower cost than companies with dedicated infrastructure.

????Thompson did state that "when we get to the point where customers are asking for this service [bitcoin remittance], we would look at it as enabling yet another currency." He says the Western Union network is capable of "movement of any currency type ... We can move [bitcoin] across our wires to the receiving entity." He did not specify whether this might function through some sort of token or derivatives system, since bitcoin proper can only be transferred over the Bitcoin network. Thompson was unable to comment on possible trends in Western Union's pricing in advance of Tuesday's earnings call.

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