????高科技領域的“聰明錢”將退出市場

????凡是目睹過硅谷興衰周期的人都知道，蕭條即將來臨。當沒有任何收入的Snapchat拒絕Facebook公司開出的數十億美元報價，當Twitter和商務社交網站LinkedIn的交易價數倍于它們各自微不足道的營收額，當Salesforce.com效仿甲骨文公司為迎接年度用戶大會而大張旗鼓地封閉舊金山數個街區的時候，人們就該明白，泡沫的破滅之日已經不遠了。精明的投資者往往會在這個時候一窩蜂地跑向相反的方向。

????概率: 58%。

????Tech's smart money will exit

????Anyone who has seen Silicon Valley's boom-bust cycles before knows there's a bust on the way. When pre-revenue Snapchat (see our feature story) turns down a multibillion-dollar buyout offer from Facebook (FB, Fortune 500), when Twitter (TWTR) and LinkedIn(LNKD) trade for many multiples of their relatively puny sales, when Salesforce.com mimics Oracle by closing down San Francisco streets for its annual user conference, you know the peak isn't far away. This is when savvy investors run in the opposite direction.

????Odds: 58%.