????據報道，微軟（Microsoft）有意徹底改變自身移動戰略，轉而免費向移動設備制造商提供Windows移動版操作系統。

????周三，科技博客The Verge在報道中援引“了解微軟公司計劃”的匿名消息人士，稱微軟可能放棄Windows Phone和Windows RT的授權費收入，轉而提供免費版本的Windows移動操作系統，以爭取市場份額。顯然，微軟此舉旨在增加從自身搜索廣告、應用程序以及Skype、SkyDrive、Office等訂閱服務中獲得收入的機會。

????諾基亞（Nokia）是Windows手機操作系統最大的授權使用者（它在Windows手機市場上占據了高達80%的市場份額），而微軟于今秋收購了諾基亞（Nokia）的手機業務，使得微軟移動版Windows的授權費收入丟了一大半。而授權費是微軟操作系統最大的收入來源。

????事實上，授權是微軟的“立足之本”。公司成立初期，微軟決定將MS-DOS以及后來的Windows授權給電腦廠商使用，認為這是主導個人電腦市場的最佳途徑。蘋果（Apple）采取了和它相反的策略，僅僅允許本品牌電腦搭載自身操作系統。最終微軟勝出。直到互聯網興起，隨后的移動設備大行其道，授權費收入才被廣告費等其他來源的收入超越。而谷歌（Google）也隨之主導了手機操作系統市場，并在平板電腦操作系統市場中占據了較大份額。谷歌進軍移動業務是為了提升現有的廣告銷售業務。而此舉確實收效明顯。若微軟果真提供免費版Windows，顯然意在“師夷長技以制夷”。微軟旨在盡可能多的搶奪谷歌在在線廣告市場上占據的極高份額。

????如果微軟真的有這個計劃，它將標志著微軟企業戰略的重要轉變，至少是在消費市場上的重要轉變。同時，這也等于默認了它現行的移動市場戰略效果不佳。

????歸根到底，這個決定在于增加的廣告收入和訂閱服務收入是否足以彌補丟掉的授權費。這筆帳可不好算。微軟的市場份額肯定會增長，但這可能還不夠。畢竟，谷歌在移動市場上具有絕對優勢，而蘋果用戶對于蘋果手機和平板電腦產品的忠誠度極高，兩項業務對蘋果而言可謂利潤豐厚。

????正如The Verge上的一位評論者所言：“微軟不確定到底該學谷歌還是學蘋果。”其實還有一種可能，那就是：在移動市場上，微軟恐怕這兩個都學不像，所謂邯鄲學步是也。（財富中文網）

????譯者：項航??

????Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly considering a radical shift in its mobile strategy: offering its operating systems free to manufacturers of mobile devices.

????The Verge, quoting unnamed sources "familiar with Microsoft's plans" reported Wednesday that the company might trade in the revenues it gets from licensing Windows Phone and Windows RT by offering free versions of them in order to gain market share. The idea would be to increase opportunities to earn revenues from search ads as well as via Microsoft's apps and subscription services such as Skype, SkyDrive, and Office.

????Microsoft purchased Nokia's handset business this fall. Because Nokia was by far the largest Windows licensee for phones (it represents 80% of the Windows-powered handset market), a lot of that revenue has been lost anyway. Licensing fees make up the biggest source of revenue for Microsoft's operating systems.

????In fact, licensing is what built the company. In its early days, Microsoft decided that licensing MS-DOS, then Windows, to manufacturers was the best way to dominate the market for personal computers. Apple (AAPL) took the opposite tack, allowing its operating systems only on its own computers. Microsoft won that battle, and it wasn't until the rise of the popular Internet, and the subsequent explosion of mobile devices, that licensing became less important in the consumer market than other sources of revenue, such as ads. That's why Google (GOOG) was able to dominate the market for phone operating systems, and take up a sizable chunk of the tablet market. Google got into the mobile business to boost its existing business: ad sales. And it has worked. By offering free versions of Windows, Microsoft would be targeting Google by following that company's own strategy. Microsoft's main interest there is in taking away as much of Google's whopping-big share of the online ad market as possible.

????If Microsoft is indeed planning such a move, it would mark a big change in its corporate strategy, at least in the consumer market, as well as a tacit admission that its approach to the mobile market hasn't worked well enough.

????The decision will come down to whether the lost licensing fees would be made up for by increased revenues from ads and subscription services. That's not an easy calculation to make. Microsoft will surely gain market share, but that might not be enough, given Google's dominance, and the loyalty of Apple customers toward both phones and tablets, which for Apple are high-margin businesses.

????As one commenter on The Verge put it, "Microsoft isn't sure whether it should become Google or Apple." There is a third possibility: that in the mobile market, it will become neither.