季報(bào)顯示:大摩向好,高盛轉(zhuǎn)弱
????摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)CEO高文的全面整改策略終于開始見效。
????雖然第三季度華爾街交易員的日子不好過,但摩根士丹利這三個(gè)月的利潤(rùn)和營(yíng)收在財(cái)富管理業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)下均超出了預(yù)期。這家銀行第三季度實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)9.06億美元,一舉扭轉(zhuǎn)了上年同期虧損10億多美元的局面。 ????上年同期的數(shù)據(jù)包括一項(xiàng)與公司債務(wù)相關(guān)的會(huì)計(jì)支出,很多華爾街人士都沒注意到這一點(diǎn)。但如果剔除此項(xiàng)支出和其他一次性費(fèi)用,摩根士丹利的利潤(rùn)從5.6億美元增加了一倍多,至10億多美元。 ????聯(lián)系到主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手高盛(Goldman Sachs)最近這個(gè)季度的糟糕表現(xiàn),摩根士丹利這樣的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)尤為引人矚目。上周四,高盛公布,第三季度利潤(rùn)持平,營(yíng)收較上年同期大降20%。高盛業(yè)績(jī)受到其債券、商品和外匯交易部門業(yè)務(wù)驟減的沖擊,自金融危機(jī)以來這個(gè)部門一直是高盛利潤(rùn)的主要推動(dòng)力。 ????華爾街今夏秋初的那場(chǎng)混亂,摩根士丹利也不能完全置身事外。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)將縮減債券購買規(guī)模的表態(tài)造成利率上漲,土耳其里拉等新興市場(chǎng)貨幣的匯率急跌。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)隨后收回了此項(xiàng)計(jì)劃,市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)立即逆轉(zhuǎn),再一次讓華爾街大感意外。摩根士丹利固定收益和大宗商品業(yè)務(wù)的營(yíng)收較上年同期驟減了43%,降幅與高盛相近。 ????但季度業(yè)績(jī)似乎也證實(shí)了高文策略的正確性:推動(dòng)摩根士丹利撤出波動(dòng)性較大的華爾街業(yè)務(wù),轉(zhuǎn)向?yàn)閭€(gè)人投資者提供儲(chǔ)蓄投資等咨詢業(yè)務(wù),這些業(yè)務(wù)的服務(wù)費(fèi)收入更為持續(xù)穩(wěn)定。例如,最近季度摩根士丹利財(cái)富管理業(yè)務(wù)的營(yíng)收就較上年增加了2.50億美元,盡管同期華爾街市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩起伏。 ????整體而言,摩根士丹利第三季度營(yíng)收較上年同期增加了26億美元。相比之下,高盛的營(yíng)收則減少了16億美元。 ????過去一年半,高文成功地扭轉(zhuǎn)了不利的局面。繼債務(wù)評(píng)級(jí)遭下調(diào),牽頭承銷的Facebook公司 IPO遭遇滑鐵盧等一系列令人失望的事件后,高文的CEO職位一度岌岌可危。由于個(gè)人投資者需要等一段時(shí)間才會(huì)返回市場(chǎng),收購花旗(Citi)的美邦(Smith Barney)經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)回報(bào)緩慢。 ????如今高文的策略正在顯現(xiàn)成效,而高盛突然之間變得沒有方向。摩根士丹利財(cái)富管理業(yè)務(wù)第三季度的凈資產(chǎn)收益率(這是華爾街非常看重的一項(xiàng)指標(biāo))為13%。相比之下,高盛的整體凈資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率為8%,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于該公司長(zhǎng)期宣稱的20%目標(biāo)。不過,摩根士丹利的整體凈資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率為6%,仍低于高盛。 ????高文調(diào)整摩根士丹利風(fēng)險(xiǎn)策略的舉措顯現(xiàn)效果的另一跡象是:最近這個(gè)季度的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值全方位下降,這項(xiàng)指標(biāo)用于衡量交易部門在某一天可能損失多少錢。 |
????James Gorman's Morgan Stanley makeover is finally showing results. ????Despite a tough three months for Wall Street traders, Morgan Stanley's profits and revenue, driven by growth in its wealth management division, beat expectations for the third quarter. The bank earned $906 million, up from a loss of just over $1 billion a year ago. ????The year-ago quarter included a heavy hit from an accounting charge related to the company's debt that many on Wall Street ignore. Even excluding that charge and other one-time expenses, though, earnings at Morgan Stanley (MS) more than doubled to just over a $1 billion, up from $560 million. ????The results are particularly striking given how badly Morgan's chief rival Goldman Sachs stumbled in the quarter. On Thursday, Goldman (GS) said its earnings were flat and its revenue had tumbled 20% from a year ago. The firm was hit by a huge drop in its bond, commodities, and currency trading unit, which has been the chief driver of profits for Goldman since the financial crisis. ????Morgan Stanley wasn't able to completely sidestep the mayhem on Wall Street in the summer and early fall. Indications that the Federal Reserve would pull back on its bond buying caused interest rates to rise, and the currencies of emerging market nations such as Turkey to tumble. Markets quickly reversed when the Fed backed off that plan, which seemed to catch Wall Street by surprise yet again. Revenue in Morgan's fixed income and commodities unit fell by 43% from a year ago, similar to the drop at Goldman. ????But the quarterly results also seemed to validate Gorman's plan to push Morgan Stanley away from Wall Street's more volatile businesses, and toward advising individual investors on how to invest their savings, which produces more consistent fees. Revenue at Morgan Stanley's wealth management division, for instance, rose $250 million from a year ago despite the quarter's ups and downs on Wall Street. ????Overall, Morgan Stanley's revenue rose $2.6 billion in the third quarter from the same period a year ago. Goldman's, on the other hand, fell $1.6 billion. ????It has been a remarkable turnaround for Gorman in the past year and a half. The CEO seemed to be on the ropes following a string of disappointments for the firm, including a debt downgrade and the Facebook IPO fiasco, on which Morgan was the lead underwriter. The acquisition of Citi's Smith Barney brokerage division was slow to pay off as individual investors took a while to come back to the market. ????Now Gorman's strategy is paying off, and Goldman suddenly seems adrift. Morgan's wealth management unit had a return on equity, a key statistic on Wall Street, of 13% in the quarter. That compares to an overall ROE at Goldman of 8%, well below that firm's long stated goal of 20%. Morgan Stanley's overall ROE is still less than Goldman's at 6%. ????Another sign that Gorman's effort to re-risk Morgan Stanley is working: Value-at-risk, the measurement of how much money the firm's trading operations could potentially lose on a given day, fell in every category in the quarter. |