????周五上午，摩根大通（JPMorgan）和富國銀行（Wells Fargo）揭開了銀行板塊公布業績的序幕，但兩者的業績都不是那么出色。貸款量偏低，凈利差縮小，官司纏身，交易業務不夠活躍以及按揭市場陷入低迷等因素嚴重影響了這兩家大型銀行在第三季度的表現，甚至造成摩根大通出現了幾年來的首次虧損。

????但如果本季度美國政府無法恢復正常運轉，各家銀行上季度遇到的諸多問題可能就會顯得像在公園里散步那樣輕松愉快。實際上，為化解政府預算僵局而進行的最新努力看來仍不足以解決問題，讓周四市場在松了一口氣之后的反彈顯得有些為時過早。共和黨眾議員們目前提倡的方案仍然很容易讓美國銀行業受到各種致命問題的打擊，而且許多問題甚至有可能引發2008年那樣的金融危機。

????政府停擺問題似乎正在以極快的速度向非常嚴重的地步發展。共和黨最初的打壓行動突然變得齷齪起來。現在，數千名政府工作人員和私營分包商將無法按時拿到薪酬，由此產生的負面影響無疑將波及整個經濟。

????對那些受到政府關門影響的人，各家銀行都試圖變得慷慨一些，有些銀行甚至允許客戶隨意透支，以便償還賬單。雖然這對客戶來說是件好事，但它意味著銀行利潤的下降。現在還不清楚銀行的慷慨做法還能堅持多久。

????很難說政府長期關門符合銀行的最佳利益，因為它會給貸款量帶來巨大壓力，從而使銀行的利潤率下降到危險的水平。信貸質量將因此受到影響，從而迫使銀行要么降低放貸標準，要么拒絕向潛在優質客戶發放一些可靠的貸款。這兩種情況似乎都不是非常有吸引力。

????但這還不是全部。聯邦住宅管理局（Federal Housing Administration）可能關門，讓銀行很難發放按揭貸款。如果無法把這些按揭貸款轉讓給政府，這些銀行就會失去一大筆現金。摩根大通和富國銀行在美國按揭市場中的份額接近四分之一，這種情況會對兩家銀行下個季度的業績產生重大影響。

????政府停擺對銀行來說顯然不是好消息。如果情況依然如故，也許可以保險地預計，許多銀行將在本季度出現虧損。政府關門將一如既往地對銀行產生不利影響，但和美國政府觸及債務上限后可能產生的巨大破壞相比，前者不值一提。

????首當其沖的是銀行資本。不論是好還是壞，銀行資本都主要由國債構成。如果美國政府未能提高債務上限，而且出現任何方式的違約，各種國債的價值都將隨著收益率的上升而下降。具體降幅目前還無法確定，但短期國債受到的打擊可能最為沉重。

????這種情況可能帶來災難性的后果。如果資本緩沖的價值突然下降，銀行就會立即縮小放貸規模。最終，銀行需要彌補國債貶值所產生的缺口，以滿足最基本的資本金要求。這就是說，銀行可以在公開市場上借出的資金將減少。對經濟而言，這是個不利因素。

????但政府違約帶來的最棘手問題可能是它對銀行經紀-交易業務的影響。作為交易抵押品，人們對國債和現金一視同仁。但如果政府違約造成國債貶值，整個抵押體系就可能失靈。銀行和其他金融機構就會儲備資金，因而可能不愿相互拆借，從而造成回購市場崩潰。在交易缺乏足夠現金支撐的情況下，經紀-交易商將難逃一劫。這就是2008年貝爾斯登（Bear Stearns）和雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒閉的原因，而且非常有可能成為一個導火索，導致大銀行遭遇新一輪的滅頂之災。

????周四，共和黨人提出了一項折中方案，也就是提高政府債務上限，從而再滿足六周支出的需要，但政府未來還是得關門。這個方案還有待于和奧巴馬政府進行協商。除了取消為《平價醫療法案》【Affordable Care Act，即奧巴馬醫改（Obamacare）】提供資金的醫療器材稅，目前還不清楚共和黨方面的真正意圖。無論如何，這條消息帶來了反彈，各個市場都收復了政府停擺以來約一半的失地。

????考慮到政府違約可能帶來的所有負面影響，對銀行來說，明智的做法可能是充實資本金，做好準備過苦日子，以防政府在新的最終期限到來時仍然未能恢復正常運轉。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????

????JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kicked off bank earnings season Friday morning reporting some less-than-stellar results. Weak loan volumes, shrinking net interest margins, legal mishaps, lackluster trading activity, and a lousy mortgage market wreaked havoc on the megabanks during the third quarter. It even pushed JPMorgan into the red for the first time in years.

????But the numerous problems the banks encountered in the previous quarter could seem like a walk in the park if the government fails to get its act together this quarter. Indeed, the latest efforts to end the budget standoff in Washington hardly seem adequate, making Thursday's relief rally seem a bit premature. The deal currently being pitched by House Republicans would continue to leave the nation's banking sector vulnerable to any number of fatal ailments, many of which could even trigger a 2008-like financial meltdown.

????The government shutdown seems to be getting very serious, very fast. What began as a Republican power play has suddenly turned ugly. Now thousands of government workers and private subcontractors won't be getting paid on time, the negative consequences of which will undoubtedly ripple throughout the economy.

????Banks have tried to be generous with those impacted by the shutdown, with some even allowing their customers to freely overdraw their accounts to cover the bills. While that is good for the consumer, it amounts to lost profits for the banks. It is unclear how much longer the banks can afford to be generous.

????A prolonged government shutdown is hardly in the best interest of the banks as it would weigh heavily on loan volumes, forcing profit margins at the banks to shrink to critical levels. Credit quality will suffer as a result, which would force the banks to either lower their lending standards or deny potentially good customers some solid loans, neither of which seem very appealing.

????But that's not all. The banks are having a hard time writing mortgages due to the partial closure of the Federal Housing Administration. If they can't sell off those mortgages to the government, then they will miss out on a big chunk of cash. This should have a strong impact on both JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) in their next quarterly earnings as the two underwrite nearly a quarter of the nation's mortgage market.

????The government shutdown clearly isn't a great deal for the banks. If it continues, it is probably safe to say that many banks would be reporting losses this quarter. Yet the shutdown, as harmful as it has been and will continue to be on the banks, is nothing to compared to the magnitude of destruction that would be unleashed if the U.S. breaches the debt ceiling.

????At issue would be bank capital, which, for better or worse, is largely made up of Treasury bonds. If the government does not raise the debt limit and defaults on its debt in any way, the value of Treasury bonds all across the curve will fall as yields spike. It is unclear how far they would fall, but nearer-term bills will probably experience the worst blow.

????The results could be catastrophic. If the value of a bank's capital cushion falls suddenly, then it would immediately cut back on lending. Eventually the bank would need to fill the hole created by the devalued Treasuries in order to maintain minimum capital requirements. That means it will have less money to lend to the public markets, a negative for the economy.

????But probably the most troubling impact of a government default is its impact on a bank's broker-dealer operations. Treasuries are used as collateral in trading and are viewed as being as good as cash. If they are devalued in a default then the entire collateral system would break down. Banks and other financial institutions would be hesitant to lend to one another as they hoard capital, causing the repurchase (or repo) market to collapse. Without adequate cash to facilitate trades, a broker-dealer is doomed. This is how Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, and it will most likely be the cause of the next major bank collapse.

????The Republicans floated a compromise Thursday that would raise the debt ceiling just enough to cover an additional six weeks of spending but would keep the government closed pending negotiations with the Obama administration. At this point it is unclear what the Republicans really want besides the lifting of a medical device tax which goes to fund the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). In any case, the markets rallied on the news, giving back around half of what they have lost so far since this government sleigh ride began.

????Given all the negative consequences a default could have, banks would be wise to boost their capital and hunker down just in case Washington fails to get its act together by the new deadline.