????杰夫?貝佐斯、約翰?亨利、沃倫?巴菲特正在投資的并不是一個已經奄奄一息的行業。他們不會干這種事。他們正在投資的是有望反彈的資產。盡管上周媒體上又出現了一波討論報紙螺旋式下降命運的熱潮，但業內權威人士還應該考慮一些事實。

????2012年，報紙媒體創下了386億美元的營收。盡管這個數字較2011年395億美元下降了2%，我們也開始看到報紙商業模式終于展露出頗有希望的改變：多個收入來源的業績均出現上漲，其中一些是最近幾年才出現的。

????剛剛過去的一年，發行收入上升5％，從100億美元上升至105億美元。數字版訂閱收入則顯著增長，這是報業的該類收入自2003年以來首次出現增長。

????我們的研究發現，推動發行收入增長的是不斷上漲的數字版、以及數字版和印刷版捆綁訂閱價格。如果大家更仔細地觀察會發現，對于整個報業來說，這些新的發行收入增長或許是個好兆頭。采用這種創新方式的報紙媒體公司已經品嘗到了成功的滋味，純數字版發行收入增長了275%，捆綁發行收入增長了近5倍(499%)。

????隨著報紙變得不那么依賴印刷版廣告，更加依賴于一個多元的收入模式，廣告收入亦出現了起色。相較于2006年的82%，2012年，不到一半的報業收入(46%)來自印刷版廣告。更重要的是，與傳統廣告毫不相關的新收入來源——比如面向本地企業的數字資訊服務和電子商務交易——增長了8%，約占報紙媒體公司總收入的十分之一。

????雖然僅憑數字版廣告難以填補印刷版廣告曾經扮演的角色，但我們也看到了這個領域的增長。總體而言，2012年，數字版廣告總收入（包括與印刷版廣告捆綁在一起的數字版廣告）增長了5%，增至33億美元。其中，純數字版廣告收入增長20%，增至11億美元。

????如果把報紙媒體廣告商業模式的所有重要方面（包括印刷版、數字版、專營和預刊本）的收入匯聚在一起，很難忽略的一個事實是：報紙的心跳依然強勁有力。

????我們也看到了讀者人數方面的證據。即使印刷版發行量在近些年有所下降，但紙質版繼續吸引著大量受眾。斯卡伯羅夫研究中心( Scarborough Research)的一項聯合研究顯示，每周有70%的美國人（1.58億美國成年人）消費報紙媒體的內容，其中約1.44億成年人閱讀至少一份實體報紙。

????與此同時，移動技術的傳播正在迅速而顯著地擴大數字版報紙內容的受眾群。從整個行業的角度來觀察，那些現在只通過智能手機或平板電腦獲取數字版報紙內容的讀者使報紙在線受眾的總人數增加了27%。對于一些報紙來說，純移動用戶推動在線受眾總數增加了50%以上。

????此外，出于幾個原因，我們務必要考慮年輕受眾將對讀者群產生的影響。但首要原因是，就平均而言，移動受眾是更年輕的讀者。近一半 (46%) 純移動受眾的年齡在18歲至34歲之間，而在純桌面用戶中，僅有30%的人處于這個年齡組。

????也許最重要的一點在于，斯卡伯羅夫研究中心發布的這份報告顯示，30歲以下的年輕人依然青睞新聞媒體，依然認為報紙是一個至關重要的信息來源。在18歲至34歲年齡段中，平均每周約有57%的人閱讀印刷版或數字版報紙。然而，如果觀察沉溺于社交媒體的年青一代使用和消費媒體的方式，這個百分比就不足以解釋報紙生成內容的真正價值——從早到晚，由報紙生成的內容被無數次地引用、濃縮、在Twitter上傳播、編輯、被電子郵件發送和分享。

????事實是，所有媒體正在改變。所有公司都在與時俱進，報紙也不例外。但現在，報紙正處于一個非常有利的位置，我們正在看到前景大好的收入來源——這些收入源昭示著報紙將擁有一個燦爛的未來。正如吉姆?法洛斯所述，我毫不懷疑，近期發生的多起報紙收購事件標志著“一個時代的開始，這個鍍金時代的主要受益者將重新投資于這一提供公共情報的基礎設施”。我猜想，沃倫?巴菲特，約翰?亨利和杰夫?貝佐斯也是這么想的。

本文作者卡羅琳?里特爾是美國報業協會總裁兼首席執行官。（財富中文網）

????譯者：任文科

????Jeff Bezos, John Henry, and Warren Buffett are not investing in dying businesses. They don't do that. They are investing in assets poised for a rebound. Despite the recent spate of media last week about the spiraling of newspapers, there are a few facts for industry pundits to consider.

????Newspaper media comprised a $38.6 billion industry in 2012. While those revenues saw a 2% decline compared to 2011 revenues ($39.5 billion), we're also starting to see promising shifts in the newspaper business model: growing revenue streams across several categories -- some of which have only emerged in recent years.

????Just this past year, circulation revenue rose by 5% -- from $10 billion to $10.5 billion -- as digital subscriptions grew dramatically, marking the first gain in this category for the newspaper industry since 2003.

????Our research has found that what's driving circulation growth is increasing digital and print-digital bundled subscription rates. And if you take an even closer look, you'll see these new circulation spikes may bode well for the future of newspapers on the whole. Already newspaper media companies that have innovated in this way have experienced success, with digital-only circulation revenue growing by 275% and revenue from bundled subscriptions seeing a six-fold (499%) increase.

????Advertising is also seeing gains, as newspapers become less reliant on print advertising and much more so on a diversified revenue model. Compared to 82% in 2006, less than half (46%) of industry revenue came from print advertising in 2012. What's more, new sources of revenue completely unrelated to conventional advertising -- such as digital consulting for local businesses and e-commerce transactions -- grew by 8%, accounting for nearly one in 10 dollars of total streams for newspaper media companies.

????Although it is difficult for digital ads alone to fill the role that print advertising once played, we nevertheless see growth in this area, too. Overall, total digital advertising, which includes digital ads bundled with print ads, increased by 5% in 2012, to $3.3 billion. The digital-only advertising component of that total increased by 20% to $1.1 billion.

????When you combine revenue streams from all essential facets of the newspaper media advertising business model, including print, digital, niche, and preprints, it's hard to ignore the evidence that newspapers are still ticking strong.

????We see that evidence in readership numbers, too. Even though print-only circulation has shown a decline in recent years, the paper version continues to draw a large audience. Of the seven in 10 Americans (158 million U.S. adults) who consume content from newspaper media each week, 144 million of those adults read a physical copy, according to a syndicated study by Scarborough Research.

????The spread of mobile technology, meanwhile, is rapidly and significantly expanding the audience for digital newspaper content. On an industry-wide basis, those who now use only smartphones or tablets to access digital newspaper content increased the overall newspaper online audience total by 27%. For some newspapers, mobile-only users have boosted the online audience by more than 50%.

????It's also important to consider the effects that the younger audience will have on readership, for a number of reasons, but first, because mobile audiences are, on average, younger readers. Nearly half (46%) of the mobile-exclusive audience falls in the 18-to-34 age group compared with 30% of desktop-bound users.

????Perhaps of utmost importance, the same Scarborough Research study shows that youth and those under 30 still have a pulse on news media, and consider the newspaper a vital source of information. Some 57% of those aged 18-34 read newspapers, in print or online, throughout the course of an average week. Yet, when you look at how younger, socially driven generations use and consume media, this percentage doesn't begin to account for the value of newspaper-generated content, which is quoted, cited, condensed, Tweeted, edited, emailed, and shared countless times throughout the day.

????The fact is all media are transforming. Companies change with the times, and newspapers are no different. But they are now emerging in a strong position, and we are seeing promising revenue streams for future success. I have no doubt the recent purchases mark the "beginning of a phase in which this Gilded Age's major beneficiaries re-invest in the infrastructure of our public intelligence," as Jim Fallows writes. I suspect that Warren Buffett, John Henry, and Jeff Bezos think so, too.

Caroline Little is the president and CEO of the Newspaper Association of America