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微軟Xbox未戰先輸

微軟Xbox未戰先輸

John Gaudiosi 2013-06-24
微軟Xbox和PS4今年將前后腳上市銷售。不過,分析人士認為,微軟阻止用戶離線玩游戲以及限制銷售二手游戲的要求傷害了核心玩家的感情。盡管它隨后順應民意,調整了相關政策,但是品牌已經受到損害,必然會影響到產品的銷量。年末的游戲主機大戰還沒正式開打,微軟已經處于下風。

????如果有人質疑群眾的力量,看看微軟(Microsoft)眼下的處境就明白了。

????這家科技巨頭的態度突然出現逆轉,修改了即將上市的Xbox One游戲機中部分引發爭議的功能。面對網上激烈的批評,公司放棄了用于阻止用戶離線玩游戲以及限制銷售二手游戲的要求。微軟娛樂業務總裁唐?馬特里克于6月19日在Xbox.com上對游戲玩家們發表聲明稱:“大家有多么喜歡光盤游戲所帶來的靈活性,這一點我們已經知曉。大家需要自行決定出租、分享和轉售這些游戲,這對于你們非常重要。當然,對于你們而言,在世界上任何一個地方、任意玩轉離線游戲的自由也是至關重要的。”

????韋德布什證券公司(Wedbush Securities)視頻游戲分析師邁克爾?帕切爾表示,他認為微軟不僅做了正確的事情,也選擇了正確的時機。帕切爾說:“微軟在E3大會上的慘敗令它受到嚴重影響,我認為他們真的想做正確的事情。‘永遠在線’要求的出發點,是為了提供對游戲的即時訪問,可以在玩游戲、看電視、聊Skype和上網之間快速切換。但要想實現這一點,必須將游戲寫入到硬盤上,進而必須確保同一個游戲并未被多次拷貝到不同的Xbox One上,于是就形成了繁瑣的數字版權管理政策。”

????帕切爾認為,到今年年底,微軟將在全球售出300萬臺Xbox Ones,明年將售出1,100萬臺。他認為,在下一代游戲機的市場爭奪戰中,索尼(Sony)將占據優勢,今年它的PlayStation 4全球銷量將達到300萬臺,而明年的銷量將達到1,300萬臺。今年11月,下一代游戲主機發布時,供應不足和全球市場將制約銷量。游戲玩家們會用話語表達自己的態度,但他們更會用自己的錢包來投票。有消息指出,上周,亞馬遜(Amazon)在E3大會上進行的投票結果顯示,PS4的支持率超過Xbox One一到兩個百分點。

????數字世界研究(Digital World Research)的視頻游戲分析師P.J.麥克尼利認為,微軟迅速做出應對,值得贊揚,但它也引發了對于預購真實情況的質疑。麥克尼利稱:“預購數量肯定不盡如人意。這是過去十年來微軟最重要的一次產品發布。”

????市場調研機構DFC Intelligence的視頻游戲分析師杰瑞米?米勒表示,表面看來,微軟改變政策的做法至少能贏回消費者積極的感情,但卻不會徹底扭轉PS4與Xbox One的力量對比。一個原因是因為,微軟游戲主機的售價仍為500美元,而索尼的設備僅為400美元。米勒說:“相比Xbox 360和Playstation 3,微軟和索尼對這次新產品的功能和價值定位更加復雜。購買一臺新游戲主機不僅是一筆巨大的經濟投入,也是情感上的投入。樹立消費者對公司產品的信心和信任比以往更加重要。微軟目前的工作是,在鎖定產品計劃的同時,以持續、明確的方式傾聽外界的期望。”

????Anyone who questions the power of the crowd need only talk to Microsoft.

????In a stunning reversal, the technology giant made an abrupt about-face on some of the controversial features of its upcoming Xbox One console. The company scrapped requirements that would have prevented users from playing offline games and made it difficult to sell used games in response to fierce online criticism. Don Mattrick, president of Microsoft's (MSFT) entertainment unit, made the announcement in a June 19 post on Xbox.com addressed to gamers: "You told us how much you loved the flexibility you have today with games delivered on disc. The ability to lend, share, and resell these games at your discretion is of incredible importance to you. Also important to you is the freedom to play offline, for any length of time, anywhere in the world."

????Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Securities, said he not only thinks it's the right thing to do, but Microsoft is timing it well. "Microsoft was wounded by the reaction to its E3 press conference, and I think they genuinely want to do the right thing," said Pachter. "The 'always connected' requirement arose from their desire to provide instant access to games, rapid switching between games, TV, Skype, and Internet browsing, etc. However, to accomplish that, they required games to be written to the hard drive, which prompted a need to ensure that the same game wasn't copied multiple times to different Xbox Ones, hence the onerous DRM."

????Pachter believes Microsoft will sell 3 million Xbox Ones by the end of this year worldwide and another 11 million consoles next year. He gives Sony (SNE) an edge in the next-gen battle with 3 million PlayStation 4s sold this year globally and 13 million next year. Short supply and the global markets will limit sales this November when the next-gen devices launch. While gamers spoke with their voices, they also voted with their wallets. Some sources point to PS4 outselling Xbox One by a rate of two to one on Amazon (AMZN) coming out of E3 last week.

????P.J. McNealy, video game analyst for Digital World Research, believes Microsoft deserves credit for responding so quickly, but this also raises the question about what has happened with pre-orders. "Pre-order numbers couldn't have been pretty," said McNealy. "And this is the most important launch in the past 10 years for Microsoft."

????Jeremy Miller, video game analyst for DFC Intelligence, said that while on the surface this reversal should help Microsoft regain at least some positive sentiment from consumers, it won't completely shift the perceived balance of power from PS4 to Xbox One. One reason is because Microsoft is still selling its console for $500, while Sony's device costs $400. "Microsoft, and Sony for that matter, have more complicated stories to tell this time around about features and value propositions as compared to the Xbox 360/PlayStation 3 launches," said Miller. "Buying a new console can be a big financial and emotional commitment. Building confidence and trust in what your product will deliver is more important than ever. Microsoft's job now is to lock in the product plan and get the message out there in a consistent, clear way."

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