????北京大學光華管理學院（the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University）院長蔡洪濱注意到，談到如今中國在社會、環境和經濟上面臨的巨大挑戰時，往往會出現這樣的情況：“經常到中國來的人都相當樂觀，很少或從未來過的人則會說中國已經處于崩潰的邊緣。”

????不用說，和本周五上午參加2013年成都《財富》全球論壇中國經濟變化討論會的大多數嘉賓觀點一致，蔡洪濱在這個問題上持樂觀態度。但所有與會者都沒有低估今后挑戰的嚴峻性。

????美國前財政部長、高盛（Goldman Sachs）前首席執行官漢克?保爾森說：“有一點最讓我關注，而且中國政府也已經意識到了這一點，那就是目前中國的經濟增長模式正在失去動力，需要重新為改革注入活力，這顯而易見。”

????雖然和全球標準相比，中國的經濟增長依然迅猛。但2010年以來，中國的經濟增長率不斷大幅下降。2013年第一季度，中國經濟增速為7.7%，低于之前兩位數的增長水平。保爾森指出：中國“過于依賴政府主導的投資、基建和制造業，過于依賴出口，內部增長不足。服務業需要為中國經濟做出更多貢獻。”

????麥肯錫（McKinsey）全球總裁鮑達民則表示，盡管如此，他仍是“樂觀派”，原因是中國經濟有一股“根本動力”，那就是城市的快速擴張。長期以來，麥肯錫一直預計到2030年中國的城市人口將達到10億。鮑達民承認，這是個預測，無法確定，而且農村人口向城市的大量轉移實際上也可能有所放緩。但他仍然認為，中國的城鎮化轉型才剛剛完成起步階段，“這個進程將繼續進行下去。”（點擊此處了解麥肯錫對中國的其他觀點）

????保爾森警告說，經濟增長方式將對環境產生重大影響。為實現經濟繁榮，中國已經在空氣污染和水污染方面付出了沉重代價。這對中國來說是個嚴峻的問題，而且可能給世界其他地區帶來災難性影響，除非中國建設燃煤發電廠的腳步能有所停滯，或者通過其他方式來降低對化石燃料的依賴。

????保爾森指出，中國新一屆領導人“既理解民營經濟的重要性，也了解改革的必要性”，對此他基本表示贊賞。但他說，中國政府需要更多地參與環保，這方面的工作不能減少。“中國需要立法，而且需要落到實處。”他還認為，在“當地政府集中精力促增長”的情況下，地方上很難做到這一點。

????保爾森最后說：“好消息是（新一屆領導人的）預期很高。壞消息是這些預期幾乎不可能成為現實。他們是一個強有力的領導班子。他們必須非常堅定。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????Cai Hongbin, dean of the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, has noticed a pattern in the way people respond to the stiff challenges -- social, environmental and economic -- facing modern China: "Those who come often to China are pretty optimistic. Those who rarely or never come say China is collapsing."

????Cai, needless to say, is optimistic, as were most of the panelists who took part in a conversation about China's changing economy at the 2013 Fortune Gobal Forum Friday morning in Chengdu. But none underestimated the enormity of the challenge that lies ahead.

????"What hits me right smack between the eyes is the same thing the Chinese government knows," said former US Treasury Secretary and former Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Hank Paulson. "The current growth model is running out of gas. They're going to need to reinvigorate reform, it's clear."

????China's growth rate, while still robust by global standards, has slowed dramatically since 2010; it was 7.7% in the first quarter of 2013, down from recent double digits. China is "too reliant on state-led investment and infrastructure and manufacturing," Paulson continued. "Too reliant on exports. There's not enough domestic-led growth. It needs more from the services industry."

????Dominic Barton, global managing director at McKinsey, said he's "bullish" nevertheless, based on what he called China's "underlying force of growth" -- rapidly expanding cities. McKinsey has long predicted that China's urban population will reach one billion by 2030. The number is a "projection," not a certainty, Barton allowed; and the flood from the countryside may in fact be slowing somewhat. But China is still just at "the end of the beginning" of its urban transformation, he maintained. "This thing will still move." (See more from McKinsey on China)

????How that growth is accomplished, Paulson warned, will have serious environmental implications. China has already paid a steep price for prosperity in dirty air and dirty water -- serious problems for China, and potentially catastrophic for the rest of the world unless China can somehow stop building coal-fired power plants and otherwise lessen its reliance on fossil fuels.

????Paulson applauded China's new leadership for "both understanding the importance of the private sector and the need for reform" generally. But he said the government needs to be more involved, not less, when it comes safeguarding the environment. "You need to have laws and you need to enforce them," Paulson said, adding that that's hard to do at the local level when "local leaders are focused on driving growth."

????Paulson's conclusion: "The good news is that expectations [of the new leadership] are high. The bad news is that it will be almost impossible to meet those expectations. They're strong leaders. They're going to need to be very strong."