????微軟公司（Microsoft）正準(zhǔn)備在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上卷土重來(lái)。盡管要在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)上掙錢(qián)一直讓人煞費(fèi)苦心，但這家全球最大的軟件巨頭還是希望憑借在云計(jì)算和移動(dòng)設(shè)備上的兩大技術(shù)突破，再分一杯羹。不過(guò)這次要想再掙上一筆可能就沒(méi)那么容易了。

????微軟將于6月在中國(guó)正式推出云平臺(tái)Windows Azure，這是它與世紀(jì)互聯(lián)公司（21ViaNet）合作的結(jié)晶。按照雙方協(xié)議，世紀(jì)互聯(lián)將從客戶(hù)身上賺取收益，再按一定比例分給微軟。由于中國(guó)嚴(yán)格限制外國(guó)公司提供“增值電信”服務(wù)，導(dǎo)致多數(shù)外企只得與本地公司建立合作關(guān)系。

????上周，微軟首席執(zhí)行官斯蒂夫?鮑爾默稱(chēng)，為了推出這個(gè)平臺(tái)和智能手機(jī)，微軟將在中國(guó)新招上千名員工。目前微軟在中國(guó)的員工總數(shù)約為四千人。

????中國(guó)一直是微軟的盜版重災(zāi)區(qū)，很多人都在使用微軟的產(chǎn)品，但很少有人掏錢(qián)。

????微軟創(chuàng)始人比爾?蓋茨曾經(jīng)發(fā)表過(guò)一個(gè)有名的高見(jiàn)：寧可看到中國(guó)用戶(hù)偷用他的產(chǎn)品，也不愿讓其他人染指，結(jié)果中國(guó)用戶(hù)真的欣然照辦。2011年鮑爾默曾抱怨稱(chēng)，微軟在中國(guó)的收入甚至還不及荷蘭——不過(guò)自從微軟開(kāi)始向中興通訊（ZTE）這類(lèi)智能手機(jī)廠商征收專(zhuān)利費(fèi)后，這種局面就有所改觀了。據(jù)商業(yè)軟件聯(lián)盟（Business Software Alliance）稱(chēng)，按價(jià)格估算，2011年有77%的軟件遭到盜版，而據(jù)估計(jì)，非法軟件市場(chǎng)的市值高達(dá)90億美元。

????云和移動(dòng)服務(wù)可能會(huì)是破解這個(gè)難題的良藥。Windows Azure是企業(yè)的云計(jì)算平臺(tái)，將于六月正式推出。云可讓企業(yè)和開(kāi)發(fā)者在第三方服務(wù)器、而不是本地PC上存儲(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)和軟件，由此盜版將不再像現(xiàn)在這樣嚴(yán)重。而在移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域，手機(jī)廠商將預(yù)裝操作系統(tǒng)，將強(qiáng)化對(duì)使用對(duì)象及使用內(nèi)容的控制。

????不過(guò)微軟仍面臨激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。已擁有中國(guó)電子商務(wù)市場(chǎng)80%份額的阿里巴巴公司（Alibaba）極有希望推出自己的云計(jì)算服務(wù)。盡管據(jù)弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester）稱(chēng)，到2020年，“公有云”服務(wù)的收入將達(dá)到38億美元，但這個(gè)數(shù)字卻還不到商業(yè)軟件聯(lián)盟所預(yù)估的中國(guó)盜版軟件市場(chǎng)總值的一半。而在移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域，谷歌公司（Google）的Android操作系統(tǒng)早已占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。

????微軟也許能躲過(guò)盜版這個(gè)陷阱，但卻未必能擺脫政治上的麻煩。外企是不允許自行提供“增值電信”服務(wù)的，所以微軟必須與一家本地企業(yè)分享云服務(wù)收入。由于云計(jì)算在中國(guó)政府的“十二五”計(jì)劃中占有重要位置，因此這個(gè)市場(chǎng)很可能會(huì)靠照顧本國(guó)企業(yè)發(fā)展起來(lái)。因此，微軟想把中國(guó)市場(chǎng)變成重要收入來(lái)源的希望顯得很渺茫。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????Microsoft is staging a comeback in China. The world's biggest software maker hopes to use the twin technological disruptions of cloud computing and mobile devices to get a second bite of a market where profit has proved elusive. Yet the financial benefits may be no easier to grasp the second time round.

????Microsoft is due to launch Windows Azure, its cloud computing platform, in China in June, in partnership with local company 21ViaNet. Under the agreement, 21ViaNet would collect client revenues and pass a percentage on to Microsoft. China restricts foreign companies' ability to offer "value added telecoms" services, leading most to partner with local players.

????The software giant plans to hire thousands of new employees in China for the launch and for the roll-out of smartphones, chief executive Steve Ballmer said last week. Microsoft currently has a workforce in the country of around 4,000.

????China has been a piracy trap for Microsoft: many use its products, but few pay.

????Founder Bill Gates famously argued that he would rather see Chinese users steal his products than someone else's, and they took him at his word. In 2011 Ballmer complained that Microsoft (MSFT) generates less revenue in China than in the Netherlands -- though that will have changed since Microsoft started charging smartphone makers like ZTE patent fees. According to the Business Software Alliance, 77% of software by value was pirated in 2011, based on an estimated illegal software market worth $9 billion.

????Cloud and mobile services may provide an antidote. Windows Azure, the company's cloud computing platform, is set to launch in June, and the hope is that piracy will be less of a problem in the cloud, where companies and developers store data and software on third-party servers rather than local PCs. In mobile, operating systems tend to be pre-installed by handset manufacturers, which creates tighter control over who's using what.

????Yet competition is fierce. Alibaba, which already handles over 80% of online commerce, has high hopes for its own cloud computing service. While revenues from "public cloud" services are set to grow to $3.8 billion by 2020, according to Forrester, that's still less than half the Business Software Alliance's estimate of the Chinese market for illegal software. As for mobile, the industry is dominated by versions of Google's Android operating system.

????Microsoft may also escape the piracy trap only to fall into a political one. Foreigners aren't allowed to offer "value-added telecoms" by themselves, so Microsoft must share its cloud revenue with a local partner. Since cloud computing features in the Chinese government's current five-year plan, the market is likely to develop in ways that favour local players. That makes Microsoft's chances of turning China into a big source of revenue look pretty nebulous.