????國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）并非一個整體，相反，它由兩部分組成。一部分是分析機構，它備受尊重，由頂尖的技術官僚掌控，工作內容是提出世界級的深刻見解；另一部分是運營機構，它的行為前后矛盾，經常屈服于發達經濟體政治主宰者的壓力之下，因而無法兌現承諾。

????這兩部分之間的差異從沒有像今天這樣明顯，由此產生的影響也從沒有像今天這樣突出。

????IMF成立于1944年，當時的全球環境和今天大相徑庭。面對全球經濟的起起落落，IMF一直都游刃有余。這讓它成為權力最大、最有能力而且最為重要的國際性組織。理論上，IMF主要通過四個途徑為全球經濟服務，它們是：對各個國家的內部發展及其對境外的影響進行中立分析，后一項分析很重要；成為探討全球政策并進行協調的論壇；作為金融方面的首選援助者，為無法進入市場、且往往瀕臨破產的國家提供緊急貸款；支持成員國實施良好的政策，建立良好的程序，采用良好的實踐方法。

????這四項功能已經相當了不起。但它們仍未體現出IMF順利運轉時的整個覆蓋范圍及其影響。可以看出，在可靠狀態下，IMF的所有功效都能得到顯著放大。

????IMF貸款可以釋放來自其他方面的資金。它的分析報告會出現在經濟峰會上，而且可能影響后者的日程和內容。它的技術援助能釋放各個經濟體中未得到充分挖掘的潛能。同時，作為全球各項政策的指導者，IMF是最好的審查方和權衡者，包括強化國際標準在內。

????回顧以往，IMF的確時有過人表現。它的作用遠遠超過全球知識領域的領導機構、緊急資金的供應機構以及受到政府信任的顧問機構。它還在制度方面為整個世界指明方向。

????然而，今天的IMF還有相當大的一部分潛力沒有發揮出來。正因為如此，IMF的作用和全球經濟繁榮增長的要求相比也有相當大的差距。它缺乏公信力，它的號召力正在減弱，它在財力方面也落后于私營資本的增長速度和波動幅度。

????在代表性和合法性方面，IMF也有相當大的缺陷。它的管理模式非常陳舊，當然無法體現當今全球經濟的特點。在這種情況下，大多數人都認為IMF的政策協調功能不夠均衡，還有許多人認為IMF在這方面毫無建樹。它不再具有催化作用，而這種作用對全球經濟的良性發展而言是如此的重要。

????出問題的不是IMF的分析功能。在外界看來，IMF在這方面的工作具有一流水平，其中最具有代表性的就是《世界經濟展望》（World Economic Outlook）報告。

????作為經濟學家和市場參與者，我自己都能證明這一點。對于IMF的分析結果、數據和深層次見解，人們總是翹首以待——所有這些不僅僅是信息來源，還影響著人們對全球經濟和全球市場的看法。

????The IMF is not one, but rather, two institutions: a highly respected analytical outfit anchored by superb technocrats and delivering world class insights; and an inconsistent operator that frequently falls hostage to pressure from its political masters in advanced

????Never has the contrast been as strong as it is today. And never have the consequences been as material.

????Formed in 1944 under very different global circumstances, the IMF has brilliantly navigated the ebbs and flows of the global economy. In doing so, it has retained its reputation as the most powerful, competent, and relevant of all international institutions.

????On paper, the IMF serves the global economy in four main ways: It provides unbiased analysis that covers not just national developments, but also, and importantly, their cross-border effects; it is a forum for global policy discussions and coordination; it is a financial first responder, providing emergency loans to countries shut out of markets and often on the verge of collapse; and it supports its member countries' implementation of sound policies and establishment of sound processes and practices.

????This is quite an impressive list already. Yet it does not give justice to the full scope and impact of a well-functioning IMF. You see, a credible IMF translates into an institution that is able to significantly leverage everything it does.

????IMF loans can unlock funding from other sources. Its analysis feeds into economic summits, potentially influencing the agenda and the narrative. Its technical assistance can unleash the underutilized potential of domestic economies. And, in its role as a conductor of policies around the world, it can be the best source of checks and balances, including in enforcing international standards.

????At times over its history, the IMF has indeed excelled. It showed itself to be much more than the world's intellectual leader, emergency provider of financing, and trusted advisor to governments. It also played the role of the world's institutional north star.

????Yet today's IMF falls quite short of its potential and, even more consequently, of what the global economy needs in order to grow and prosper. The institution's credibility is lacking. Its convening power has weakened. Its financial resources have lagged the growth and volatility of private capital.

????The IMF also has considerable representation and legitimacy deficits. Its governance is a reflection of the distant past and, certainly, not of today's global economy. As such, the institution's policy coordination role is seen as asymmetric by most, and ineffectual by many. And the Fund no longer plays the catalytic role that is so important for good global economic outcomes.

????The fault does not lie in the institution's analysis. Its work, spearheaded by the "World Economic Outlook," is regarded as first class.

????I can attest to this as both an economist and market participant. We eagerly await the Fund's analysis, data, and insights -- all of which inform and influence how we think about the global economy and global markets.