中國核電項目緣何加碼
????中電集團(China Light and Power)扎根于香港已有一百多年,至今仍是香港最大的電力公司。但如今,中電集團的業(yè)務已經(jīng)遍布亞洲,不僅是中國大陸最大的外資電力供應商,亦在澳大利亞、印度、泰國和臺灣地區(qū)投資發(fā)展并營運能源項目。 ????亞洲能源需求不斷飆升,同時全球石化燃料日益枯竭,如何在兩者之間尋求平衡已經(jīng)成為這個時代最大的挑戰(zhàn)。業(yè)務遍布亞洲的中電集團自然責無旁貸。包立賢持有劍橋大學(Cambridge University)文學碩士及哈佛商學院(Harvard Business School)工商管理碩士學位,在總部設于日內(nèi)瓦的世界可持續(xù)發(fā)展工商理事會(World Business Council for Sustainable Development)下屬的能源與氣候小組擔任聯(lián)席主席。他2000年加入中電集團,出任集團CEO,今年晚些時候,他將會離開中電集團,加入嘉道理父子有限公司(Sir Elly Kadoorie & Sons Limited)。后者是中電集團最大股東嘉道理家族持有的私人公司。本周,他在香港接受了《財富》雜志(Fortune)編輯大衛(wèi)?威佛德的專訪: ????問:目前貴公司使用的各類能源比例為多少?中電集團未來的發(fā)展方向是什么? ????答:僅就香港而言,核能占25%。縱觀整個中電集團,主要的還是石化燃料,其中煤約占60%,燃氣占15%,再加上20%的可再生能源以及5%的核能。 ????問:你們不再增建煤電廠了嗎? ????答:對,在香港,我們不會再建了。2010年,香港政府就未來整個香港的能源需求進行了民意咨詢,提出的主張是:到2020年,全港電力供應中,核電占50%,燃氣發(fā)電占40%,煤電占10%。我們是中國第一座商用核電站、大亞灣核電站的股東。大亞灣核電站為香港提供約25%的電力。如果香港需要更多核電,我們將追加投入。同時我們也計劃投資于為廣東供電的核能項目,如:陽江核電站項目。 ????問:中電集團將在陽江核電站采用何種核電技術(shù)? ????答:和大亞灣核電站一樣,采用是壓水反應堆技術(shù)(Pressurized Water Reactor,縮寫為PWR,第二代核電技術(shù))。未來中國會啟用第三代核電技術(shù)。目前在建的有美國西屋電氣公司(Westinghouse)的AP1000技術(shù)和法國阿海琺集團公司(AREVA)的EPR技術(shù)。同時,中國也正在計劃自主研發(fā)第三代核電技術(shù)。我猜測,他們將通過標準化設計、本土化制造和完善整個供應鏈達到量產(chǎn)來降低成本。法國人在上世紀70年代和80年代的核電項目就是這樣做的。用合理的成本大舉興建核電項目完全可以實現(xiàn)。假設在美國推進一個一次性核電項目,那么所有的監(jiān)管問題和設計問題所耗費的成本就像氣球,會越吹越大。但是如果能把這些前期成本分攤到整個項目中,負擔就沒那么大了。再加上如果能把整個供應鏈高效運作起來,就可以大幅降低成本。而這正是中國擅長的。 |
????China Light and Power's roots are more than a hundred years deep in Hong Kong. It's still the city's largest utility. But today what's known as the CLP Group operates across Asia -- on the mainland (where it's China's biggest foreign electricity producer), and in Australia, India, Thailand, and Taiwan. ????That makes CLP a player in the greatest challenge of our time: How to balance Asia's soaring energy demands with the planet's urgent need to wean itself from fossil fuels. Andrew Brandler, CEO of the CLP Group since 2000, has degrees from Cambridge University and Harvard Business School, and he's co-chair of the energy and climate group within the Geneva-based World Business Council for Sustainable Development. He'll be leaving CLP's corner office later this year to join Sir Elly Kadoorie & Sons Limited, the private company of the Kadoorie Family, CLP's largest shareholder. This week he sat down with Fortune's David Whitford in Hong Kong. ????What is your current fuel mix, and where are you headed? ????In Hong Kong we're 25% nuclear. Across the whole group, it's mostly fossil fuels -- about 60% coal and 15% gas -- plus 20% renewables and 5% nuclear. ????And you're not building any more coal plants? ????In Hong Kong, no, we would not do that. The government in 2010 came out with a public consultation about the future energy needs for the whole of Hong Kong that postulated by 2020 nuclear being 50% of the electricity supply, gas 40%, and coal 10%. We were an investor in China's first commercial nuclear power station at Daya Bay, which supplies about 25% of Hong Kong's electricity. If Hong Kong needs more nuclear, we're keen to invest in that. We're also looking to invest in new nuclear stations that are supplying Guangdong, like the Yangjiang project. ????What technology will you be deploying there? ????It's PWR [pressurized water reactor, second-generation] technology, the same as Daya Bay. China will be moving to third-generation. They are building the [Westinghouse] AP1000, they're building the [Areva] EPR, and they are looking to develop their own versions of each as well as their own third-generation technology. I suspect they will standardize the design, and they will localize the fabrication and get the whole supply chain geared up, and they will mass-produce to get the cost down. This is what the French did in the '70s and '80s with their nuclear program. There's no fundamental reason why you can't implement an aggressive buildout of nuclear power at reasonable cost. If you're doing a one-off project, like in the United States, with all the regulatory issues and design issues, the costs just balloon. But if you can spread all those upfront costs over a whole program, it's not so burdensome. And if you can get the supply chain working -- which China is very good at -- you can bring those costs down dramatically. |