????蘋果（Apple）遇到大麻煩了，如果說低迷不振的股價、接連放緩的營收增長，以及中國市場飽受詬病的售后服務還只是前奏的話，那么無法推陳出新可能會成為它致命的考驗。自去年10月iPad Mini上市后，蘋果至今尚未發布任何新品。過去四年，有三年蘋果都在3月舉辦過盛大的新品發布會，但今年該公司沒有這樣做。而除3月份之外，蘋果通常還會在每年6月份的年度開發者大會上發布多款新品。假如今年蘋果真要一直等到6月份才發布新品的話，將出現一個長達8個月的主打產品發布真空期。要知道，13年來，蘋果公司從來沒有讓用戶等過這么久。

????最近幾年，蘋果新產品的推出頻率非常有規律。9月份，一場極具特色的發布會會帶來iPod和iTunes等音樂產品及服務的升級；等到10月，登臺亮相的是蘋果標志性的Macintosh計算機產品；而踏入三月份，迎接我們的是一場混搭發布會：從2009年驚艷亮相的iPod Shuffle到2011年經過重大改進的iPad 2，再到2012年的全新iPad。（2010年是蘋果最后一次未在3月召開發布會，不過它在1月推出了第一代iPad，隨后又在6月推出了全新設計的iPhone 4。）蘋果過去曾多次在IDG World Expo舉辦的Mac世界（Macworld）展銷會上發布重磅產品。但2009年以后，蘋果停止了在這個活動上進行的主題發言，此舉使得3月的新品發布會變得更加重要。

????三月春已到，但庫比蒂諾仍然毫無風聲，不少蘋果觀察家們對此議論紛紛。“太奇怪了。我們曾經認為，按照慣例，他們應該在三月做點什么。”投資銀行Piper Jaffray的分析師吉恩?蒙斯特表示。“我們沒指望蘋果發布多款新品，但居然連一款都沒有，真是失望透頂。”分析師曾預測蘋果將發布視網膜版的iPad Mini，還將推出一項名為iRadio音樂訂閱服務。雖然新服務還未發布，但鋪天蓋地的謠言已讓互聯網廣播提供商Pandora的股價倍受打擊。

????從去年10月發布iPad mini，到今年6月的全球開發者大會，中間有整整八個月，這意味著蘋果必須在今年夏天大放異彩。除了升級版iPad mini和音樂訂閱服務，明斯特預測，蘋果在6月還將推出iPhone 5S和針對蘋果電視的應用程序商店。而應用程序商店意義重大，它意味著蘋果電視（這是真正的電視，不是之前推出號稱是蘋果電視的機頂盒）有望在今年12月發布。明斯特稱：“他們屆時很可能要發布以上四款（新品）中的三款，才能使今年6月的發布會成為一場真正的盛會。”

????蘋果沒有回應發表評論的請求。

????當然，這對蘋果而言可能未嘗不是件好事，或許漫長的等待意味著接下來會有大動作。蒙斯特預測，由于產品升級換代步伐加快，蘋果的新品發布數量將有所上升。分析師們同時還預測蘋果將在明年推出蘋果手表（或許名為iWatch？）和廉價版的iPhone。

????話雖如此，蘋果一直將這些重大活動視為公司長期計劃的關鍵步驟。眼下蘋果很可能將長達8個月沒有新品推出，不禁令人生疑：蘋果到底在打什么主意？（財富中文網）

????譯者：項航

????As if a plunging stock price, slowing earnings growth, and customer-service woes in China weren't enough, Apple hasn't released a new product since October, when it released the iPad Mini. In three of the past four years, Apple has held a signature new-product event in March, but not this year. Were the company to wait until June, when it typically unveils new gadgets at its annual conference for developers, it would mark an eight-month gap in major releases, the longest wait Apple has inflicted on its customers in 13 years.

????Apple's (AAPL) product launch cycle in recent years has followed a metronome-like precision. September featured events to promote music products and services including the iPod and iTunes. October has been reserved for upgrades to the bedrock Macintosh computer line. The March event has seen a grab-bag of product releases, from a new iPod Shuffle in 2009 to the significantly improved iPad 2 in 2011 and a "new" iPad in 2012. (In 2010, the last year Apple didn't hold an event in March, it unveiled the first iPad in January and a redesigned iPhone 4 in June.) For years Apple announced major products at the Macworld trade show. But it stopped keynoting the independently produced event after 2009, making its March announcements all the more important.

????This year, March came and went without a peep from Cupertino, causing concern among avid Apple watchers. "It was a surprise. We had expected them to do something in March like they typically do," says analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray. "We weren't expecting a ton of fireworks, but the fact that it wasn't there was incrementally disappointing." Analysts had speculated that Apple would release an updated iPad mini with a retina display and a music subscription service. The rumored iRadio service has been enough to crater the stock of Internet radio provider Pandora (P), yet Apple hasn't released it.

????The long stretch between October's iPad mini announcement and June's Worldwide Developers Conference puts pressure on Apple to hit a homerun this summer. In addition to the iPad mini update and a music subscription service, analyst Munster expects an iPhone 5S in June, as well as a new app store for Apple TV. The App store would be significant because it would most likely signal that an Apple television -- an actual television as opposed to the set-top box known as Apple TV -- could be on track for a December release, he says. "They've probably got to do three out of four of those (new products) for it to be considered a real respectable June event," says Munster.

????Apple did not respond to requests for comment.

????The cup could be half full for Apple of course, with the long pause presaging a burst of activity. Munster expects the number of Apple announcements to increase as the pace of product upgrade cycles become shorter. Analysts are also anticipating an Apple watch (iWatch?) and a much cheaper version of the iPhone to come out in the next year.

????Even so, Apple has traditionally viewed these major events as important stepping-stones in the company's long-term plan. An eight-month silence begs the question: What has Apple been up to?