????市場對援助塞浦路斯反應過度，目前的“危機”態勢將很快過去。

????簡要介紹一下最新情況，塞浦路斯議會已將針對援助計劃的投票推遲到周二。按照這項援助計劃，塞浦路斯銀行中10萬歐元（80.5萬元人民幣）以上的銀行存款須繳納9.9%的一次性稅款，少于這一數字的存款則按6.75%的稅率納稅。國內方面，這個方案面臨很大阻力，原因是塞銀行業和政治以及銀行腐敗息息相關，而這讓塞浦路斯成為俄羅斯人的洗錢樂園。因此，目前公眾輿論認為，如果普通存款人一定要交稅的話，塞國內處于壟斷地位的幾家大銀行所承擔的稅款應遠遠超過前者。

????在國外，為獲得援助而向存款人（而不是主權債券持有人等方面）征稅開創了一個危險的先例，讓整個歐元區的儲戶人人自危。我們預計歐盟官員將通過講話來平息存款稅激起的波瀾，他們還會傳遞出這樣的信號，那就是，鑒于銀行體系內部的腐敗行為，塞浦路斯的情況既特殊，又極端。

????請注意，周一是塞浦路斯假日，有消息稱銀行歇業時間將至少延長到周三，以免塞議會本周就大約10億歐元（80.5億元人民幣）的援助方案條款進行投票時出現資金外逃局面。昨天早間，《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)援引一位官員的話報道，按照新的建議，存款少于10萬歐元（80.5萬元人民幣）的儲戶將繳納3%的稅款；存款在10-50萬歐元（80.5-402.5萬元人民幣）之間的儲戶納稅10%；存款超過50萬歐元（402.5萬元人民幣）的儲戶納稅15%。雖然我們無從知曉報道的準確性，但看來塞政府可能對大額存款執行較高稅率，從而盯住來自俄羅斯的大儲戶。同時，塞政府還可能有必要采取臨時性限制措施，防止存款流入其他國家，具體情況將取決于塞政府所制定的稅率。

????媒體正在大肆報道此事，我們做了一些摘要供大家參考。

????? 塞浦路斯的銀行業規模約為其經濟的九倍，要解決資金問題，外界就得向塞浦路斯提供幫助，這個問題在幾個月之前就已經很清楚。

????? 如果此前確定了170億歐元（1,368.5億元人民幣）的援助計劃，我們認為市場就不會出現如此消極的走勢。我們預計市場將擺脫這個問題的影響，原因是小儲戶的存款稅負擔可能減輕，而且歐盟政府的公關部門將向整個歐洲保證，今后的援助行動不會牽涉到存款。

????? 雖然德國總理默克爾希望將本次援助推遲到9月份她當選之后，但目前的方案對她來說是一次政治上的勝利。原因何在？

????? 讓塞浦路斯承擔一部分援助資金【約58億歐元（466.9億元人民幣）】并將提供給塞浦路斯的貸款從大約170億歐元（1,368.5億元人民幣）削減到100億歐元（805億元人民幣），這在默克爾的支持者看來是個利好消息。原因是，德國在援助資金中所占的份額最大。此外，如果現在對塞浦路斯伸出援手，那就可以在9月份德國大選前早早地把這個問題掩蓋起來。

????The market's reaction to Cyprus's bailout is overdone and these 'crisis' conditions will be short lived.

????A quick update on the latest development is that parliament has delayed until Tuesday a scheduled vote on the proposed bailout, namely on the levying of a one-time tax of 9.9% on Cypriot bank deposits of more than €100K and a tax of 6.75% on smaller deposits.

????Internally there's much pushback on the scheme as the country's banking system is tied with political and banking corruption that allows a home for Russian money laundering. It is therefore playing out on the streets that "oligarchs" banking in Cyprus should pay disproportionately more versus average deposit holders, if the latter should play at all.

????Externally, the move to tax deposit holders for bailout packages (versus for example sovereign bond holders) sets a dangerous precedent that throws fear across Eurozone deposit holders. We expect Eurocrats to rhetorically smooth over the deposit levy and signal that Cyprus is a unique and extreme case given the inner workings of its corrupt banking system.

????Note that Monday is a holiday in Cyprus and there's talk that a bank holiday will be extended at least to Wednesday to prevent capital flight as the terms around a €10B bailout are voted on this week. This morning the Wall Street Journal cited an official that said the new proposal will allow depositors with less than €100K to be taxed at 3%, savers with €100K-€500K taxed at 10%, and those with over €500K taxed at 15%. While we cannot know the accuracy of this citation, it appears likely that the government will tax higher deposits at a higher rate to go after large Russian deposit holders. Depending on the crafting of the levy it would also seem probable that temporary restrictive measure may have to be put in place to prevent the flight of deposits to other countries.

????Here are some take-aways to consider as the media runs hard with this story.

????? It has been clear for many months that Cyprus would need external assistance to repair the country's finances, a country with a banking system some eight times larger than the economy.

????? Had a flat €17B bailout package been crafted, we would not have expected such a negative market move. We think the market will move past this development as terms around the deposit levy are likely mitigated for smaller deposit holders and the EU PR machine assures Pan-Europe that its deposits would not be considered for future bailouts.

????? While Chancellor Merkel was hoping to delay the bailout until after her election in September, this deal is a political win for her. Why?

????? Having Cyprus cover a portion of the bailout (~€5.8B) and a loan reduced to €10B instead of an estimated €17B looks good for Merkel's constituency as Germany is writing the biggest portion of the bailout checks. Further, a bailout of Cyprus now allows the issue to be swept under the rug well before German elections in September.