????不出意外，Canalys的報告引起了很大的關注，也引發了一場熱議。《時代》周刊（Time ）編輯哈里?麥克拉肯借機發起了投票，調查讀者的想法。他還附上了自己的分析，認為一臺設備如果符合下述條件，就可以稱為PC：第一，它能運行應用程序；第二，它具備多種用途（而不是像游戲機這樣的專用機器）；第三，它適合個人使用。

????他接著做出了大膽的假設，說PC可以是“任何尺寸”，也就是說智能手機也可以算作PC的一種。但是這個假設扭曲了市場。原因很簡單，那就是大多數智能手機用戶同時也擁有PC或者平板電腦。同樣，有些人買了PC之后也還是會買平板電腦，還有些人PC用舊了也不去換新的，而是去買平板電腦。我們還需要進行粒化分析（粒就是指一些個體通過不分明關系、相似關系、鄰近關系或功能關系等所形成的塊。這種處理信息的過程．稱信息粒化。——譯注），以了解平板電腦和手機究竟是以何種方式、在何種程度上擠占傳統PC的市場，以及有多少人會購買這類設備來補充PC的局限。（蘋果機當然也是PC的一種，除非有什么前提可以明確表明它們與Windows系統的機器有所不同。）

????自從Canalys的報告發布后，人們對PC的概念更加困惑了。一方面是因為不同的研究人員對市場的定義不同，另一方面是因為PC和平板電腦的區別在迅速縮小。這種概念上的含混不清使我們難以估測各種各樣的市場趨勢。美銀美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）今年1月發布的搜索引擎使用報告只有唯一的一個數據來源，那就是（傳統）PC，因為無法獲取移動設備搜索引擎的參照數據。如果不把移動設備的數據算進去，就算得出結論，宣稱今年1月四大搜索引擎——谷歌（Google）、必應（Bing）、雅虎（Yahoo）和Ask——的搜索數量同比增長了9%，又有什么意義呢？“不幸的是，我們沒有移動設備的搜索數據，無法反映搜索數量增長的全景。”美銀在注解中解釋。于是，這份報告附帶地提到了一個事實：據一些搜索引擎廣告商估計，移動設備的搜索數量約占搜索總量的15%。

????有效區分PC和移動設備對于分析其他配套行業也很重要。移動設備的芯片市場和PC的芯片市場區別很大。晨星公司（Morningstar）這個月發布的一份報告表明，芯片制造商AMD最近之所以麻煩纏身，部分原因在于“平板電腦迅速普及”帶來的困境。無獨有偶，在PC臺式機市場占據統治地位的英特爾（Intel），為了在移動設備的芯片市場做出一番業績，也面臨著日益沉重的壓力。

????但是如果我們把這些錯綜復雜的要素一概剔除，縱觀市場全局，那么市場的趨勢就顯而易見了：兩年前，iPad問世。在此之前的五年時間里，傳統PC和筆記本的年銷量增長在5%和15%之間，具體的增長率取決于年份和數據來源。去年，傳統PC和筆記本的銷量下跌了5%，預計明年還會有類似幅度的下跌。2012年全年的節假旺季，盡管經濟在復蘇，PC的銷量依然同比下跌了6%到10%（具體跌幅還是取決于大家各自采信的數據來源）。同一時期，平板電腦的銷量暴漲了60%到80%。很多人開始購買平板電腦，而對傳統PC棄之不顧。

????這個趨勢還會繼續下去。接下來的幾個月，更強大的滑蓋式、翻轉式平板電腦將陸續上市。顯然，不出幾年，平板電腦和PC之間的區別將變得微乎其微，至少在消費者的眼中是如此。當然，傳統PC也還是會有市場，因為人們需要用它完成特定的計算任務。(財富中文網）

????Not surprisingly, the Canalys report got lots of attention and stirred much debate. Harry McCracken of Time magazine took the opportunity to poll his readers to find out what they thought. He added his own analysis and decided that a device is a PC if it meets the following criteria: It run apps; it is general-purpose (and not meant for singular uses, like a game console); it is meant to be used by one person at a time.

????He then took a leap and said a PC can be "any size," meaning smartphones can count. But that assumption distorts the market for the simple reason that most people who own smartphones also own a PC or a tablet. Similarly, there are those who buy a tablet in addition to a PC, and others who buy them instead of a new PC. Granular analyses are needed to get a full handle on how and to what degree both tablets and phones are supplanting what most people think of as traditional PCs, and to what degree such devices are purchased as supplements to PCs. (Macs of course are included in the definition of PC, unless it's clear from context that they're being differentiated from machines running Windows.)

????Since the Canalys report was issued, the confusion has only deepened both because researchers define the market differently and because the gulf between PCs and tablets is quickly narrowing. That confusion sometimes makes it hard to measure various market trends. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch report on search-engine use in January had to rely on numbers solely from (traditional) PCs because comparable data on mobile searches wasn't available. Is it even meaningful to note that searches on the four major search services -- Google (GOOG), Bing (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and Ask -- rose by 9% in January from the previous year, when mobile data isn't included? "Unfortunately we do not have mobile query data to see the full picture for query growth," BofA's note read. So the report threw in the fact that some search advertisers estimated that mobile searches made up about 15% of the total.

????The distinction between PCs and mobile devices remains important for analyzing other allied industries as well. The market for chips that run mobile devices is quite different from the market for chips that run PCs. A Morningstar report this month noted that chipmaker AMD's (AMD) recent troubles are in part due to the "headwinds" it faces thanks to "rapid tablet adoption." Meanwhile, Intel (INTC), which is dominant in desktop PCs, is coming under increasing pressure to show results in its mobile chip sales.

????But when looking at the market as a whole, sans all these complicating factors, the trend is clear: Over the five years leading up to the release of the iPad two years ago, sales of traditional PCs and laptops grew anywhere between 5% and 15% a year, depending on the year and data source. Last year, sales declined about 5%, and a similar decline is forecast for next year. Over the 2012 holiday gift season, PC sales declined by between 6% and 10% over the previous year (again, depending on whose data you believe), even as the economy was recovering. Tablet sales leaped by between 60% and 80% during the season. Lots of people are buying tablets and forgoing traditional PCs.

????That trend will continue. Over the coming months, more-powerful hybrid and convertible tablets will be coming on the market, and it seems clear that in just a few years time the differences between tablets and PCs will be negligible, at least from a consumer's point of view, though there will still be a market for traditional PCs for certain computing tasks.