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美年輕人不愿借債消費背后的問題

美年輕人不愿借債消費背后的問題

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-03-01
據皮尤研究中心的一份報告顯示,美國35歲以下的年輕家庭平均債務正在減少。年輕的美國人不愿像父輩一樣背負大量房貸、卡貸透支消費,這對經濟來說可不是好兆頭。經濟健康時,消費者和貸款方都樂于承擔更大的風險。反過來說,如果人們不愿意背債,說明對經濟前景沒信心。

????自金融危機發生以來,很多美國人都不想再大量負債了。房主們發現,勉為其難買棟大房子會讓自己在接下來的好幾年里陷入財務危機。而找不到工作的大學畢業生則沒法償還自己的學生貸款。他們不禁會懷疑,辛辛苦苦得來的學位真的值得嗎。而就在歐洲設法應付自己的債務危機時,華盛頓的立法者們則在苦苦努力,試圖削減美國的赤字。

????的確,這場危機讓很多人都得到了慘痛的教訓。但是債務本身并不總是壞事。債務上升反映出經濟體在健康發展——健康的經濟體中,消費者和貸款方都樂于承擔更多風險。

????不過,現在的年輕人已不再愿意背負父輩那么多的債務了。隨著經濟走勢向好,這種趨勢是否還會持續尚無法確定,但是皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的一份報告顯示,35歲以下的年輕人比他們的長輩更快地償還貸款。這項研究并沒有說明這種現象是好是壞,但有很多跡象表明,債務減少意味著千禧一代對自己的財務狀況感到焦慮,而不是勇于承擔責任。

????這是個負面信號。美聯儲(The Federal Reserve)的超低利率政策讓消費者能借貸更高的額度,從而拉動了房地產和汽車銷量,但是現在的年輕人從央行的債券購買計劃中獲得的好處似乎比父輩要少。

????這份報告稱,35歲以下人士組成的家庭中,2010年的債務中值為15,473美元,比2007年的22,000美元減少了29%。與之相比,35歲及以上人士組成的家庭中,債務中值的下降幅度就小得多,只有8%。

????毫無疑問,這個下降趨勢部分反映出年輕人在房貸和消費支出上雙雙減少。不過它并不必然表明年輕人無力承擔房貸,因為很多人出于各種原因推遲了結婚年齡(而結婚往往意味著就要買房)。不過,主要由年輕人構成的首次購房群體所占份額確實減少了。而且年輕人承擔信用卡債務和車貸的意愿也下降了,表明他們的財力無法應付每月還款的需要。與2001年的50%相比,2010年僅有39%的年輕家庭有信用卡債務。至于汽車,2010年,25歲以下的人士組成的家庭中有73%擁有或至少租了一輛車。而2011年,這個比例下降到了66%。

????可能最讓人費解的是,其他各類消費貸款都在下降的同時,學生貸款卻在上升。不過,對年輕家庭來說,家庭債務的四分之三還是來自房貸,而學生債務僅占15%。

????這份研究的結論和其他一些關注年輕人財務狀況的研究如出一轍。2012年,羅格斯大學(Rutgers University)對畢業生做過一份調研。結果發現,40%的人表示學生債務導致他們推遲了大宗消費,比如房子或車子。面對每個月要付的大筆賬單,近期畢業的大學生掙的卻沒有以前的畢業生多。2009年到2011年間畢業的學生,年薪中位數比2007年減少了3,000美元到27,000美元。這個差距非常巨大。這筆錢可能意味著足夠支付買房的首付款,或是用來購買衣服家具等一大堆東西。

????而就現在來說,不愿負債的千禧一代已經變成了幾乎什么都靠租的一代人。(財富中文網)

????譯者:清遠

????Since the Great Recession, countless Americans have shunned the idea of taking on more debt. Homeowners discovered that stretching to buy bigger houses would result in years of financial turmoil. Jobless college grads unable to pay down their student loans now wonder if their degrees are really worth it. And as Europe grapples with its own debt problems, Washington lawmakers struggle to find a way to reduce the U.S. deficit.

????Indeed, many have learned a few harsh lessons. But debt isn't always a bad thing. More of it can reflect a healthy economy -- one where consumers, as well as lenders feel comfortable taking on more risks.

????Young adults, however, haven't taken on nearly as much debt as their parents. It's uncertain if the trend will continue as the economy improves, but for now, those under 35 years old have shed debt faster than older ones, according to a report by Pew Research Center released last week. The study doesn't say if this is a good or bad development, but many signs suggest the drop means Millenials are more anxious than responsible about their finances.

????It's a negative sign. The Federal Reserve's policies to keep interest rates super-low has spurred more home and car sales by getting consumers to borrow more, but it appears young adults have benefitted less from the central bank's bond-buying program.

????Across households headed by people under 35 years old, median debt fell by 29% to $15,473 in 2010, compared with $22,000 in 2007, according to the report. That compares with a much smaller 8% drop at households headed by those 35 and older during the same period.

????To be sure, the decline partly reflects a fall in home loans and purchases by young adults. This doesn't necessarily signal that younger people aren't able to afford a house, since many have been delaying marriage (which is typically followed by homeownership) for various reasons. However, the share of first-time homebuyers typically comprised of young adults has fallen. And young people are less willing to take on credit card debt and auto loans, suggesting they aren't in financial positions to commit to monthly payments. Compared with 50% in 2001, only 39% of young households in 2010 had credit card debt. When it comes to vehicles, 73% of households headed by an adult younger than 25 years old in 2001 owned or leased at least one vehicle. By 2011, that share fell to 66%.

????What's maybe most perplexing is that student debt has increased while all other consumer loans fell. Still, roughly three-quarters of household debt for young adults comes from home loans; student debt makes up only 15%.

????The study's results are similar to other research looking at the finances of young adults. In a 2012 Rutgers University survey of college graduates, 40% said student debt was making them delay large-scale purchases, such as a house or a car. Faced with big monthly payments, recent college graduates aren't earning as much as graduates before them. The median salary for those graduating between 2009 and 2011 was $27,000 -- $3,000 less than 2007. The difference is significant. It could mean having enough to help with a down payment on a home or spending money for everything from clothes and furniture.

????For now, the no-debt Millenials have spawned a generation that rents most everything.

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