交友網站的背后算法玄機
????假設你正在尋找真愛,再假設你正好喜歡諷刺小報《洋蔥報》(The Onion)。你可能會在洋蔥報的官網TheOnion.com的約會網站上發布自己的個人信息。這家媒體的標題往往驚世駭俗,比如什么《小貓咪整天就想著殺人》,再比如,《研究顯示寶寶都是腦殘》等。自然,你認為自己將和同樣喜歡這個刊物的人交上朋友。可是,你的個人資料卻被納入了一個更大的數據庫——里面一共有1,422,000個用戶。結果系統把你和另一個尋求交友服務的單身人士配上對了,只不過對方是在另一個網站——Salon.com——上注冊的。 ????歡迎來到奇特的、互聯互通的在線交友世界。這樣的網站成百上千,其中很多都擁有極其特定的目標用戶群。有些網站專門服務于熱衷諷刺作品的人群,有些則專門針對僵尸愛好者、客觀主義者、或者“鯔魚頭”生活方式者(mullet life-style,一種前額及兩側短發,腦后長發的發型所代表的生活方式,1960年代開始在影視作品中出現,風行至今——譯注)。如果一個行業觀察者認為這個飛速發展的行業正變得日益碎片化,他的觀點不無道理。然而實際情況恰恰相反——事實上,這個行業正日益由越來越少的公司控制著越來越大的市場份額。 ????比如,《洋蔥報》和Salon的交友網站都是由一家叫FastCupid的公司運作的。而這家公司是交友網絡公司(FriendFinder Network)的子公司。而交友網絡曾名為“閣樓媒體集團”( Penthouse Media Group),運作著4萬多家網站(沒錯,就是那個色情媒體巨擘“閣樓”)。所以,突然之間你會發現,你自認為通過《洋蔥報》登陸的小眾交友社區實際上規模要大得多。而這并不表示你們的興趣不會有交集。 ????可以肯定的是,交友網絡公司不會把下屬各家品牌網站上的個人資料全部混合到一起(針對這個問題,該公司沒有作出回應)。這樣做是為了實現最優結果,因為來自單身基督徒交友網站BigChurch.com的用戶可能就沒法和來自所謂“世界最大捆綁虐戀(BDSM,一種對特殊性虐待的偏好——譯注)社區” Bondage.com的用戶處得來。很多成熟的在線交友網站都會避免這種亂點鴛鴦譜的做法,但在英國,這種做法卻是常見,可以算是一種標準行為。而這只是該行業快速整合的一個后果而已。 ????IBISWorld公司的一項研究表明,目前四大公司控制著總規模高達12.2億美元的在線交友市場77%的份額。與五年前相比,這個增幅可謂驚人,并且很可能會繼續攀升。隨著美國的在線交友市場發展陷入停滯——去年收入僅增長3.5%——初創公司發現要想擠進這個市場正變得日益困難,而那些二線公司正努力爭取能夠繼續盈利。 |
????Let's say you're looking for love. Let's also say you love the satirical newspaper The Onion. You might decide to make a profile on TheOnion.com dating site. Naturally, you assume that you'll be connected to other lovers of the publication known for headlines such as "Kitten Thinks of Nothing But Murder All Day" and "Study Reveals Babies Are Stupid." Instead, your profile is entered into a much larger database -- consisting of some 1,422,000 users -- and you're paired up with another single who signed for the same service, but through another site, Salon.com. ????Welcome to the weird, interconnected world of online dating. There are thousands of sites out there, many with an incredible degree of specificity in their target audience. There are sites for satire enthusiasts, of course, but also for zombie-lovers, objectivists, and people living the mullet life-style. An observer could be forgiven for thinking that the fast-growing industry is becoming increasingly fragmented. But the reality is exactly the opposite. A smaller and smaller number of companies are controlling a greater and greater share of the market. ????For instance, the personals sites for The Onion and Salon are both powered by a service called FastCupid. That company is a property of FriendFinder Network. FriendFinder Network, formerly called Penthouse Media Group, operates more than 40,000 sites. (Yes, it's that Penthouse.) Suddenly, the niche community you thought you were tapping into by signing up with The Onion Dating, turns out to be much larger. Which isn't to say your interests will not overlap. ????To be sure, FriendFinder likely does not mix together all the profiles of all its branded sites. (The company did not return calls for comment.) That's probably for the best, because people from one property, BigChurch.com for Christian singles for example, may not get along with those from another, say, Bondage.com, "the world's largest BDSM community." Many established online dating operators eschew the practice altogether, but it's fairly common, particularly in the U.K. where it's standard practice. And it's just one result of the fast consolidation in the industry. ????Today, four companies control 77% of the $1.22 billion online dating market, according to research from IBISWorld. That's up substantially from five years ago and is likely to climb higher. With the market for online dating stagnating in the U.S. -- revenue grew just 3.5% last year -- startups are finding it increasingly difficult to break into the space, and second-tier players are struggling to stay profitable. |