????總之，在過去幾個月，中國奢侈品零售已經大幅減少。據香港統計處（Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department）統計，2011年中期，珠寶首飾、腕表和鐘表的零售額每月的增長幅度均高于總體零售額的增長速度，至年中已經達到50%的年均增長速度。但截至2012年1月，該領域的增長速度放緩，甚至低于總體零售額增長幅度。至去年十月之前的七個月中，奢侈品零售有五個月實際處于下滑趨勢。

????即便如此，高盛仍堅持其看漲的預測。

????分析師威廉?哈欽斯在近期的一份報告中稱：“2012年，中國奢侈品需求放緩，大多數公司在中國僅出現了個位數中段至略高于兩位數的增長速度。我們相信這種放緩實際掩蓋了潛在的趨勢，因為隨著歐元貶值，歐洲游更加火爆，隨之而來的是很大一部分需求從亞洲轉移到了歐洲。”

????但假如批評家的預測是正確的，中國中產階級突然不再購買奢侈品，奢侈品公司股票又會如何呢？不妨看看高盛的粗略分析：高盛估算，中國中產階級占全球奢侈品需求的7%。我們以歷峰集團（該公司拒絕對本文發表評論）為例。該公司市值為290億歐元（386億美元），據高盛預測，它今年收入約為102億歐元（136億美元），但如果突然失去中國中產階級消費者，公司銷售額可能減少7億歐元（9.32億美元）。我們將其轉換成股價，假設其他條件不變，一位投資者在未計利息、稅金、折舊、攤銷11倍市盈率時買進該公司股票，并與10倍市盈率時買進股票進行對比。這已經是過去幾年歷峰集團股票的最高市盈率。

????當然，這種分析并不完美。中產階級不可能集體流失或突然之間流失。零售商早先的報告顯示，第四季度銷售額實際出現上漲。高盛還預測，至2025年，中國中產階級將占全球奢侈品需求的17%。既然這種超速增長已經被作為股價的考慮因素，一旦需求減少，股價的下跌幅度可能更大。

????許多公司一反常態，在投資者警覺之前提前敲響了警鐘。去年九月，博柏利（Burberry）針對其利潤發出警告，很大程度上是因為公司在中國的銷售放緩。博柏利首席財務官史黛絲?卡特萊特當時對《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal ）稱：“我們的同行不見得有這種感覺。但我們肯定不是唯一的一家。亞洲市場確實出現了放緩趨勢，主要是中國市場。”

????去年，歷峰集團董事長兼首席執行官約翰?魯伯特承認，公司極易受到某個具體市場的影響，這種情況很危險。約翰?魯伯特說：“我感覺自己像是坐在火山山頂享受晚餐一樣。未來的10年或是20年，某個市場就會像火山一樣爆發。中國市場對我們意義重大。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????All told, luxury retail sales in China have slowed dramatically over the past several months. In mid-2011, retail sales growth for jewelry, watches, and clocks grew faster every month than retail sales overall, hitting nearly 50% annual growth in mid-2011, according to statistics from the Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department. But by January 2012, growth in this segment slowed to a slower pace than retail sales. In five of the last seven months leading up to October last year, luxury retail sales actually declined.

????Goldman Sachs stands by its bullish estimates, even in light of this.

????"In 2012, luxury demand in China has slowed, with most companies now reporting mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth rates in the country," analyst William Hutchings said in a recent report. "We believe that this slowdown has masked the underlying trends, as there has been a significant transfer of demand from Asia to Europe as the take-off in travel trends has coincided with a weaker euro."

????But what would happen to luxury stocks if the critics were right, and middle-class Chinese consumers suddenly stopped buying these goods? Consider this back-of-the-envelope analysis: Goldman Sachs estimates that the Chinese middle class contribute 7% of global demand for luxury goods. Let's assume this is the case for Richemont, who declined to comment for this article. The €29 billion ($38.6 billion) company should make €10.2 billion ($13.6 billion) in revenue this year, according to Goldman Sachs, but sales would fall by €700 million ($932 million) if the Chinese middle-class buyer suddenly went away. Let that work its way into valuation, assuming everything else stays the same, and an investor would be buying the stock at 11 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, versus 10 times. That's the top of where Richemont has traded for the last several years.

????Of course, this analysis isn't perfect. The middle class probably wouldn't go away altogether, or all of a sudden. And some early reports from retailers show that fourth quarter sales may have actually picked up. But Goldman also estimates that the Chinese middle class could contribute as much as 17% of global demand by 2025. To the extent that this hyper growth is already being factored into the stock price, it could fall even more dramatically if demand tapered off.

????In a somewhat odd break from the norm, companies are sounding the alarm ahead of investors. Last September, Burberry (BBRYF) issued a warning on its profits, partly because sales were slowing in China. "It's not necessarily being felt by all of our peers, but we're certainly not alone," Burberry Chief Financial Officer Stacey Cartwright told the Wall Street Journal at the time. "Yes, we are seeing a slowdown in Asia, and yes, China is a significant contributor to that."

????Last year, the chief executive of Richemont Johann Rupert admitted that the company may be dangerously vulnerable to one market. "I feel like I'm having a black tie dinner on top of a volcano," said Johann Rupert, executive chairman and CEO. "There is a volcano somewhere, whether it's this year, in ten years' time, or in twenty years' time. We are exposed to China."