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《蘋果解密》作者獨家解讀蘋果財報

《蘋果解密》作者獨家解讀蘋果財報

Adam Lashinsky 2013-01-25
蘋果的最新財報顯示,它的表現并不像所有人預想的那般完美。但面臨種種威脅,它已經做到了最好。Mini iPad的成功幫助它保住了市場份額,蘋果也在投資擴大零售網點。但蘋果CEO否認即將推出不同尺寸的iPhone。

????首先是壞消息:蘋果公司(Apple)的利潤并沒有有太大增長。我們都了解背后的原因。iPad Mini占了蘋果iPad約一半的銷量,但iPad Mini的利潤卻遠不及iPad。另外一個對公司利潤增長產生影響的因素則是其資本支出,據預測今年公司資本支出將達到100億美元,而去年為80億美元。

????當然還有其他因素。全球個人電腦銷售普遍低迷,而蘋果也未能幸免。此外,蘋果本季度比去年同期少了一周時間。這些都是事實。

????下面是好消息。問及關于市場份額的問題時,公司CEO蒂姆?庫克曾表示,蘋果專注于制造優秀的產品,而不是增長收入。但不論庫克如何暗示公司并不關注市場份額,iPad Mini的成功都說明,蘋果確實正在努力保持它在平板市場的份額。對于蘋果是否有興趣開發多款不同尺寸iPhone的問題,他也予以否認。這些都意味著,蘋果尚未準備好推出不同尺寸的iPhone手機。

????如果說有哪家公司敢于通過吸引新客戶來對未來進行投資的話,那肯定是蘋果公司。截至本財季結束,公司持有現金1,370億美元。而另外一個令人樂觀的指標同樣是資本開支。蘋果公司稱,公司100億美元資本開支中,10%將用于開設新零售商店,剩余資金則用于設備投資。蘋果進行如此大規模的新設備投資旨在打造顛覆性的新產品。質疑蘋果是否有能力從這些投資中盈利的那些人無異于拿雞蛋碰石頭,不自量力。

????是我太樂觀了嗎?或許吧。現在蘋果公司股票低于每股500美元,此時保持樂觀更容易一些。就在幾個月之前,分析師還在猜測蘋果市值何時能達到萬億美元大關。蘋果不可能犯錯,這當然是謬論,但現在要說蘋果渾身都是毛病,同樣不符合現實。畢竟在本財季,蘋果便創造了160億美元的現金流。

????有趣的是,雖然我毫不懷疑蘋果正在快速前進,并且也有自己宏偉的秘密計劃,但如果仔細觀察則會發現,蘋果的處境并不輕松。庫克在盈利電話會議上用一段獨白開場。他說公司目前正處于一個“多產”期,庫克很喜歡這個詞。此外,他還表示,自己的職責是要保持蘋果文化。他說:“對于我們來說,最重要的是消費者喜歡我們的產品。不單純是購買我們的產品,而是真正的喜歡它們。”這讓我們不由想起九月份,杰夫?貝佐斯吐槽蘋果時的一句話:亞馬遜(Amazon)希望在人們使用其產品時賺錢,而不是在人們購買其產品時賺錢。

????First, the bad news:Apple's profits aren't growing much. We pretty much know why. The iPad Mini accounts for about half of Apple's iPad sales—and the Mini is a less profitable product than the Maxi. The other strain on Apple's profits is its capital expenditures, a forecasted $10 billion this year, up from $8 billion the year before.

????Oh, there were other reasons. Personal computer sales are generally weak the world 'round, and Apple (AAPL) isn't immune. Apple's quarter was a week shorter than in the year-earlier quarter. Really.

????Now for the good news: The iPad Mini's success is a sign that no matter what CEO Tim Cook implies about not being concerned about market share—he answered a direct question on the subject by saying Apple is focused on building great products, not growing revenues—Apple is fighting to keep its share of the tablet market. He dismissed a question about Apple's interest in producing multiple sizes of iPhones. All that means is that Apple hasn't yet introduced multiple sizes of iPhones.

????If ever a company can afford to invest in its future by insuring that it brings in new customers it is Apple. It ended its quarter with $137 billion in cash. Another hopeful sign is that same capital-expenditure figure. Apple says it is spending about 10% of the $10 billion on new retail stores. The rest is for equipment. Those who question Apple's ability to profit from its massive investments in new equipment to build category-defining products are betting against a juggernaut.

????Am I being too optimistic? Perhaps. It's actually a lot easier to be optimistic with Apple's stock below $500 per share. Just a few months ago analysts were guessing when Apple would be valued at a trillion dollars. Apple could do no wrong. That clearly wasn't correct, but neither is it the case that today Apple can do no right. It generated $16 billion in cash flow in the quarter.

????What's fascinating is that while I have no doubt Apple is proceeding apace with its grand, secretive plans, if you watch closely you also can see the company sweating. Cook opened the earnings call with a soliloquy about what a "prolific" period the company is in, a favorite word of his, and how his job is to preserve the culture of Apple. "The most important thing to us is that our customers love our products," he said. "Not just buy them, but love them." The comment called to mind how Jeff Bezos taunted Apple in September by saying that Amazon (AMZN) wants to make money when people use their products, not when they buy them.

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