????高盛資產管理（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）董事長吉姆·奧尼爾表示，美國總統奧巴馬和共和黨人士還有三周時間可以達成預算協議。如果在1月20日美國總統正式宣誓就職前不能達成協議、避免財政懸崖，他預計市場將大跌。

????“市場依然認為我們會在宣誓就職日前達成協議，”奧尼爾表示。“如果談不攏就麻煩了。”

????雖然最近美國股市略有下跌，市場并未對財政懸崖做出強烈反應——加稅及縮減政府開支定于1月1日起實施。一些人認為，由于財政懸崖事實上更像是一個斜坡，會隨著時間的推移逐步加深，對市場的影響也將逐步加劇。上周，筆者說過，此次財政懸崖或許根本就損害不到市場。

????但高盛的奧尼爾認為，雖然1月2日市場可能不會大跌，但美國股市走勢不受財政懸崖影響的時間不會持續多久了。奧尼爾是一位擁躉眾多的市場策略師，他最出名的就是在10多年前創造了“金磚四國”（BRIC）一詞，用來描述巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國經濟的興起。

????“現在，特別是茶黨人士中間，存在這樣一種有觀點，認為如果發生一場危機，推動預算方面出現應有的突破，或許不是什么壞事，”奧尼爾說。“這種想法有點危險。”

????奧尼爾表示，問題是，總體而言，現在的美國股市沒有太多吸引力。他說，美國股市遠沒有一、兩年前那么有吸引力了。當時，美國第一個走出了經濟衰退。這也正是為何奧尼爾認為，如果不能達成財政懸崖協議，美國股市可能遭遇重創。美國股市比一些人想象地更有韌性。此前，面對一些不那么糟糕的消息，美國股市都輕松頂住了沖擊。

????另外，奧尼爾表示，美國不是歐洲，美國股市此前也得益于此。歐債問題導致投資者將美國作為避風港。但奧尼爾表示，這種情況似乎正在發生變化。他認為，到明年年中，歐洲可能已經達成協議，投資者對歐元區的債務問題感到較為安心，導致更多的資產流出美國。

????奧尼爾說：“最近我和一些超大型投資者、特別是亞洲的投資者，進行了會面。給我的感覺是，人們越來越認為，歐洲在應對財政問題方面做得比美國好得多。”

????Jim O'Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says President Obama and Republicans have another three weeks to make a budget deal. He says if there isn't a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff by inauguration day, which is officially January 20th, the market will plunge.

????"The market is still assuming we will have a deal by inauguration day," says O'Neill. "If not, problem."

????While stocks have fallen a bit recently, the market has yet to freak out about the fiscal cliff - the mix of tax increases and government spending cuts that are set to begin January 1st. Some have argued that since?the fiscal cliff is actually more like a slope, with changes being phased in over time, the market impact will be gradual as well. Last week, I argued that the fiscal cliff might?not actually hurt the market at all.

????Goldman's O'Neill, though, says that while the market won't likely plunge on January 2, he thinks stocks won't shrug off the fiscal cliff for much longer, either. O'Neill, a widely followed market strategist, is best known for coining the term BRICs more than a decade ago to describe the growing emergence of the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

????"There is this view, particularly among some of these Tea Party guys, that maybe to get a proper budget breakthrough it's not a bad thing if there's a crisis," says O'Neill. "That thinking is a bit dangerous."

????The problem, according to O'Neill, is there's not that much to like about U.S. stocks in general. He says U.S. stocks are not nearly as attractive as they were a year or two ago, when the U.S. was first coming out of the recession. That's why O'Neill says the lack of a fiscal cliff deal could hit the U.S. stock market, which has been coasting along on not so bad news, harder than some people think.

????What's more, O'Neill says U.S. markets have benefited from not being Europe. Debt problems there have caused investors to seek out the safety of the U.S. O'Neill says that seems to be changing. He thinks by mid-year we could have a deal in Europe that will make investors feel a lot more comfortable with the Euro's debt problems, and as a result shift more and more of their assets out of the U.S.

????"The meetings I have had with very large investors recently, particularly in Asia, left me with the idea that there is a growing realization that Europe is dealing with some of its fiscal issues much better than the U.S.," says O'Neill.