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達美千萬不要收購維珍

達美千萬不要收購維珍

Cyrus Sanati 2012-12-07
這筆交易有可能危害達美航空的市場,違反達美與歐洲合作伙伴簽訂的反壟斷協(xié)議,同時還要燒掉大量的金錢。另外,它還會使達美面臨更嚴格的政府監(jiān)管,而且維珍航空的當家人理查德·布蘭森也不是什么省油的燈,這筆交易弊大于利。因此,珍愛股東和乘客,遠離維珍大西洋航空。

????如果達美航空的旅客需要在一個地方轉機,且需要搭乘一班達美航空本身不提供的航線,那么他們完全可以在天合聯(lián)盟(Skyteam)在歐洲的其它樞紐轉機,而且比在希思羅機場要容易得多。比如達美航空的旅客們?nèi)绻诎屠琛⒛匪固氐?、馬德里、羅馬或米蘭等地降落,可以轉乘數(shù)千趟航班,前往數(shù)百個地點。而在希思羅機場,達美航空的旅客可以搭乘維珍航空的航班飛往18個目的地,而其中大多數(shù)目的地,達美航空也有自己的航班。就算維珍航空想加入天合聯(lián)盟【它從未加入新加坡航空的星空聯(lián)盟(Star Alliance)】,維珍航空有限的航線網(wǎng)絡也不會給天合聯(lián)盟帶來什么好處。

????如果這還不夠說明問題,千萬別忘了維珍還正處于巨額虧損之中。上個財年,維珍航空的稅前虧損達到8,020萬英鎊(約1.29億美元)。事實上,上兩個財年,維珍航空的虧損額已經(jīng)讓過去五年的利潤蕩然無存。維珍航空的問題在于,它在希思羅機場的業(yè)務模式基本已宣告失敗。維珍航空有25%的國際航班和歐美航線航班是靠旗下的BMI航空為它提供國內(nèi)乘客。BMI擁有希思羅機場11%的機位,相當于維珍的兩到三倍。但最近英國航空公司(British Airways)把BMI收購至旗下,由此擁有了希思羅機場51%的機位。盡管在監(jiān)管機構的要求下,英國航空公司被迫將部分機位讓渡給維珍航空,但BMI在希思羅機場的重要性無可復制,從而讓維珍的處境更加艱難。

????但對于維珍航空來說,達美航空和天合聯(lián)盟很難取代BMI的重要性。盡管從理論上講,天合聯(lián)盟的成員也可以讓旅客在希思羅機場轉機,但維珍航空能提供的任何航線,天合聯(lián)盟成員自己也能提供,而且更快、更便宜。天合聯(lián)盟已經(jīng)壟斷了大部分跨大西洋航線,每天起飛超過250架次,因此幾乎沒有必要再增加新的航班了,尤其是在一些航班已經(jīng)很多的繁忙航線上。而且天合聯(lián)盟已經(jīng)有了美國和歐盟的反壟斷“免死金牌”,允許天合聯(lián)盟成員合法共同定價。但如果天合聯(lián)盟再增加一個成員,監(jiān)管機構的反應也許不會那么友善了,甚至可能拒絕維珍航空參與共同定價。這樣很快就會有效抹煞維珍與達美和天合聯(lián)盟結盟所帶來的利益。

????不過,達美航空不應與維珍大西洋航空聯(lián)姻的最大原因也許是維珍大西洋航空的創(chuàng)始人兼大股東、億萬富翁理查德·布蘭森。布蘭森的維珍股份公司擁有維珍大西洋航空另外的51%的股份,因此布蘭森對維珍航空有完全的控制權。維珍大西洋航空的首席執(zhí)行官史蒂夫·李奇維對彭博新聞社(Bloomberg News)表示,即便新加坡航空出售了那49%的股權,布蘭森也不大可能放棄他對維珍航空的近代制權。任何坐過維珍航空的人,或是了解理查德·布蘭森的人,都不會對這個決定感到意外。這位大神最近雇了4位設計師,以他的腦袋為原型制造了許多冰塊,用來放在頭等艙旅客的飲料里。

????If Delta passengers need to connect to a destination not already served by its extensive network, they could do so more easily through one of its Skyteam partners' hubs in Europe, which, compared to Heathrow, are a breeze to connect through. And when they land in Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid, Rome or Milan, Delta passengers can take thousands of flights serving hundreds of destinations. At Heathrow, Virgin can take Delta passengers to 18 destinations, most of which it already serves. Even if Virgin wanted to join Skyteam (it never joined Singapore's Star Alliance), Virgin's limited route network would be of little benefit to the alliance.

????If that weren't enough, Virgin is also hemorrhaging cash. The airline posted a pretax loss of 80.2 million pounds ($129 million) for its fiscal year ending last February. In fact, the company's losses for the last two fiscal years have wiped out all profits made in the last five. Virgin's problem is that its business model at Heathrow is basically broken. The airline relied on the British airline BMI to feed up to 25% of its U.S. and international planes with domestic travelers. BMI had a massive 11% share of Heathrow's landing slots – two to three times as many as Virgin. But British Airways blew up that cozy arrangement by recently acquiring bmi, giving the flag carrier 51% of Heathrow's landing slots. While regulators have forced BA to relinquish some domestic slots to Virgin, they could never replicate BMI's heft at Heathrow, leaving it scrambling for a domestic partner airline.

????But Delta and its Skyteam partners are a poor substitute for BMI. While Skyteam's European airlines could theoretically connect their passengers through Heathrow, it wouldn't make sense as they could fly them directly to almost everywhere Virgin flies and beyond both faster and cheaper. Skyteam already operates the most flights over the Atlantic, with over 250 daily departures, so there is little need to add more flights, especially on the heavily traveled transatlantic route. Skyteam was granted anti-trust immunity by the US and the EU, allowing them to legally collude on prices. Regulators may not look too kindly on Skyteam adding yet another airline to the heap and could even go so far as to reject Virgin's entrance into the price setting cabal. That would effectively kill any minute benefit that would come from a tie up with Delta and its partners.

????But probably the biggest reason Delta shouldn't get in bed with Virgin Atlantic is Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Atlantic's billionaire founder and largest shareholder. His Virgin holding company owns the other 51% of Virgin Atlantic, giving Branson total control of the airline. Steve Ridgeway, Virgin Atlantic's chief executive,?told Bloomberg News?that Sir Richard is unlikely to relinquish control of Virgin Atlantic as part of a possible sale of Singapore's 49% minority stake. That should come to no surprise to anyone who has ever flown Virgin Atlantic or knows anything about Sir Richard at all. This is the man who recently?commissioned four designers?to create lifelike ice cubes of his head for passengers' drinks in Virgin Atlantic's tony "upper class" cabin.

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