????颶風(fēng)桑迪給美國東北部造成了重大損失之后，包括紐約州州長安德魯?庫默和紐約市市長邁克爾?布隆伯格在內(nèi)的一些政治家強調(diào)指出，美國有必要采取更有力的措施，對抗氣候變化，減少這種風(fēng)暴的強度和頻率。這是一種高尚且必要的努力。然而，華盛頓特區(qū)的智庫世界資源研究所（World Resources Institute）發(fā)布的最新報告顯示，美國及其溫室氣體排放，固然重要，但并不是導(dǎo)致全球氣候變化的真正問題所在。就在美國竭力減少其碳排量之際，一股煤炭購買熱潮正在席卷中國、印度、亞洲其他國家和非洲部分地區(qū)，美國在減排方面取得的任何一點進步似乎都有可能被抵銷。

????在世界資源研究所發(fā)布的這份名為《全球煤炭風(fēng)險評估》（Global Coal Risk Assessment）的報告中，執(zhí)筆人楊愛倫和崔逸云（音譯）預(yù)計，全球范圍內(nèi)正計劃興建1,199座煤炭發(fā)電廠，總裝機容量為 1,401,278兆瓦。這個規(guī)模大約相當于建造1,400座核電廠——唯一不同于核電廠的是，燃煤發(fā)電機是最大的溫室氣體排放源，是導(dǎo)致全球氣候變化的罪魁禍首之一。

????這些項目分布于59個國家，中國和印度兩國約占擬建煤炭發(fā)電能力的76％。中國大約每周就會啟用一座新的煤炭發(fā)電廠。同時，據(jù)國際能源機構(gòu)（International Energy Agency）估計，2010年的全球煤炭消費量達到72.38億噸（這是可獲取的最新數(shù)據(jù)）。中國約占全球煤炭消費量的46%，其后是美國（13%）和印度（9%）。對于環(huán)境來說，這顯然不是什么好消息。非營利機構(gòu)全球碳計劃（Global Carbon Project）最新發(fā)布的一份報告顯示，全球溫室氣體排放量在2011年創(chuàng)下新高，預(yù)計將在2012年持續(xù)攀升。

????與中國轟轟烈烈的“煤炭之戀”形成鮮明對比的是，美國目前只計劃興建36座煤炭發(fā)電廠。鑒于美國環(huán)保署（EPA）將在奧巴馬總統(tǒng)第二任期內(nèi)實施嚴格的監(jiān)管措施，這些發(fā)電廠幾乎不可能獲得興建許可。此外，拜水力壓裂技術(shù)所賜，美國現(xiàn)有的廉價、且相對清潔的天然氣資源可供其使用100年，煤炭將不再是公用設(shè)施的首選燃料。

????中國也擁有充沛的天然氣資源，但中國目前并不具備開采這種燃料的技術(shù)——應(yīng)用水力壓裂法很可能是若干年之后的事情了。此外，中國人正在安裝大量的風(fēng)能和太陽能設(shè)施，但相對于中國龐大的能源總需求而言，這些努力恐怕僅僅是杯水車薪而已。與此同時，廉價的煤炭資源依然是最受中國、印度和其他發(fā)展中國家青睞的燃料。

????我們希望公用事業(yè)公司能夠設(shè)計出清潔煤炭技術(shù)，以捕捉源自這些煤炭發(fā)電廠的二氧化碳，但這種技術(shù)目前依然非常昂貴，很難看出發(fā)展中國家眼下為什么要花費巨額資金解決這個問題。如果氣候變化問題要認真加以解決的話，它最終或許只能依靠捉襟見肘的西方國家提供開發(fā)清潔煤炭技術(shù)所需的資金——但這一幕不太可能贏得政治上的支持。

????譯者：任文科

????In the wake of the damage wrought by Sandy in the Northeast, some politicians like New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg have stressed the need to do more to battle climate change and thus reduce the intensity and frequency of such storms. This is a noble and necessary endeavor. A new report, however, by the World Resources Institute, a Washington, DC think tank, suggests that America and its green house gas emissions, while important, aren't the real problem. As the U.S. strives to cut its carbon emissions, China, India and the rest of Asian and parts of Africa are on a coal-buying binge that seems likely to more than cancel out any American progress on emissions cuts.

????In the WRI report, called Global Coal Risk Assessment, authors Ailun Yang and Yiyun Cui estimate that 1,199 new coal-fired plants, with a total installed capacity of 1,401,278 megawatts, are being proposed globally. That's the rough equivalent of building 1,400 nuclear power plants -- only unlike nuclear plants coal generators are largest emitters of greenhouse gas and one of the worst contributors to climate change.

????These projects are spread across 59 countries with China and India together accounting for 76% of the proposed new coal power capacity. China is opening about one new coal plant every week. At the same time the International Energy Agency estimates, global coal consumption reached 7,238 million tons in 2010, the latest data available. China accounted for 46% of the consumption, followed by the United States at 13%, and India with 9%. Obviously this is not good news for the environment. According to a newly released report by the nonprofit the Global Carbon Project, world-wide emissions of greenhouse gas hit a record high in 2011 and are expected to keep rising in 2012.

????To put China's love affair with coal in perspective, the U.S. currently has only 36 coal plants on the drawing board. With a second Obama term and tough EPA regulations, it's highly unlikely that any of these plants will get built. Also, thanks to fracking technology, America has as much as a 100 year supply of cheap, relatively clean natural gas that is pushing coal aside as a favorite fuel for utilities.

????China has natural gas supplies that can be tapped by fracking, but the country needs to develop the technology and know-how to tap into this fuel—and that is years off. The Chinese are also installing lots of wind and solar power, but even so this amounts to a very small percentage of the country's total energy needs. In the meantime, cheap coal is king in China, India and elsewhere in the developing world.

????One hope is that the utilities can devise clean coal technology to capture the CO2 rising from these plants but right now that technology is expensive and it hard to see why the developing world at this point will put up the money to fix the problem. If climate change is to be addressed seriously, it may in the end be up to cash-strapped Western nations to provide the funds for clean coal technology—a scenario that's unlikely to gain much political support.