????我們估計未來數周這樣的僵局還會持續，加劇美國人的焦慮情緒。它已經損害到了增長、投資和就業創造。預計經歷高潮迭起、波折叢生之后，最后一刻可能會達成妥協，妥協的結果是奧巴馬將獲勝。

????奧巴馬有著更有力的論據。他明白這一點。共和黨人也明白這一點。這只是個時間問題，需要等到足夠多的美國公民也意識到這一點。

????政治上，奧巴馬剛剛在美國總統大選中贏得了決定性的勝利。收入分配是此次大選中的一個關鍵問題，包括美國中低收入人群的福祉持續地相對下降。奧巴馬在全美大選中的獲勝得到了像加利福尼亞等州的支持，這些州的居民直接投票支持富人加稅以更好地提供教育資金。

????美國人也知道過去十年對富人而言是特別好的十年。他們的收入和財富在光景好的年份突飛猛漲；同時，得益于政府的救助計劃和前所未有的央行干預，在光景不好的年份受到的影響也相對有限。

????大多數共和黨人也認可這些，但他們認為，富人加稅對所有人都不利——主要理由是它會削弱創業、冒險和經濟擴張的動力。

????雖然稅率上調的確會產生這樣的效果，但鑒于當前的環境和近年來的情況，這樣的理由仍然有點牽強。如果與其他可能性相比，這個理由的問題就更大了，比如跌落財政懸崖，或者實施更大的調整（針對處于邊緣、邊際消費傾向不可避免更高的人群），避免跌落財政懸崖。

????如果到了必須作出決斷的時候，而且這個時刻最終會到來，那時，理性最終將獲勝。

????預計美國總統奧巴馬（應該）會堅持對最高收入人群加稅。共和黨人肯定會叫喚，但最終還是得妥協。這樣才能避免美國經濟崩潰。

????美國上下將長出一口氣。但人們很快就會意識到，美國致力于恢復經濟活力、確保金融健康以及克服政治失靈的戰爭將持續經年，而這只是這場戰爭中的一場小戰役。在這里，比以往任何時候都更加需要美國民主黨和共和黨的建設性互動，這一點既緊迫又重要。

????穆罕默德?埃爾-埃利安是太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)的首席執行官兼聯席首席投資官。

????譯者：早稻米

????We should expect this impasse to persist for a few weeks, adding to the anxiety that Americans already feel – and which has already undermined growth, investment and job creation. After lots of high drama, a compromise is likely to emerge in the eleventh hour and it will be one in which President Obama prevails.

????The President has the stronger set of arguments. He knows it. The Republicans know it. And it is only a matter of time until enough citizens realize it too.

????Politically, the President just won a decisive election in which income distribution was a key issue, including the persistent relative decline in the wellbeing of middle- and low-income Americans. His national victory was supported by states such as California where, collectively, citizens directly voted for higher taxes on the rich in order to better fund education.

????Americans also know that the last decade has been a particularly prosperous one for the rich. Their income and wealth rose at pronounced rates in the good years; and the downside during the bad years was curtailed for many by government bailouts and unprecedented central bank activism.

????While most Republicans will acknowledge all this, they will argue that taxing the rich is bad for all – principally because it reduces incentives for entrepreneurship, risk taking and economic expansion.

????While true at higher tax rates, it is a bit of a stretch to make this an overriding argument in present circumstances and in light of recent history. It is an even more problematic argument when compared to the alternatives – of going over the fiscal cliff or avoiding it by forcing greater adjustment on those already struggling and whose marginal propensity to consume is inevitably higher.

????When push comes to shove, and it will, rationality will ultimately prevail.

????President Obama will – and should – insist on increasing taxes on the highest earning brackets. The Republicans will shout and scream but end up going along. An economic debacle will thus be avoided.

????America will breathe a collective sigh of relief. But it will be dampened by the realization that this is only a small battle in America's multiyear war to restore economic dynamism, ensure financial soundness, and overcome political dysfunction. And here the need for constructive interactions between Democrats and Republicans is even more demanding, yet just as urgent and important.

????Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.