????美國總統巴拉克?奧巴馬上周五的講話應該是已經講得清清楚楚，明明白白。他愿意向共和黨人做出妥協，以免美國跌落財政懸崖，但不會再次同意延長給美國富人帶來實惠的布什減稅措施。

????我們應該預料到他會堅持這樣的立場，即便美國國內對這個問題的擔心大幅上升——這個問題如果處理不好，必定會將美國推入又一場代價沉重的衰退；我們應該預計他能獲勝。

????給最高收入人群加稅，是美國新的一年將自動生效的很多財政措施之一。財政懸崖預計將直接造成財政收縮，達到GDP的4%左右。此外，它還會造成負面的經濟和金融乘數效應，以及一些不得力的財政政策導致的效率低下。

????總的來說，結果將是伴隨著高失業率和有限的政策靈活度（政策利率早已低到不能再低，接近于零），緩慢增長的美國經濟將變得更加虛弱。而且，我們也不應該忘記，美國還面臨著歐債危機、中國經濟放緩和中東局勢不穩等外圍不利環境。

????這個財政方案似乎就是故意要造成不可收拾的經濟局面，令即便是支持中期財政調整者也不由得心生猶豫。事實上，這個方案本來也沒打算要付諸實施。這個方案可能產生的嚴重后果是為了唬住我們的政客們，讓他們接受另一套更可行的財政改革方案。

????但這個策略的設計者并沒有充分考慮到困擾美國政治系統的極端兩極化現象。兩黨互不信任，沒有可信的執行工具，因此，這個威脅并不管用。因此，現在美國看到的可能前景是：人憂心忡忡：2013年可能再次陷入衰退、失業率重新回到9%上方以及年輕人和長期失業數據更加糟糕。

????美國總統奧巴馬愿意從“小處”妥協避免這樣的局面，但前提是對美國最富人群的稅率要恢復到原有的水平，回到布什時代的起點。針對最富人群的這項減稅政策原本計劃是臨時的、可逆轉的(如今已執行了12年)。

????共和黨人說，沒門。對他們而言，任何妥協都必須包括維持減稅方案這個條件。

????President Barack Obama's remarks on Friday should leave no doubt in anyone's mind. While he is willing to compromise with the Republicans to prevent the United States from going over the fiscal cliff, he will NOT do so by again agreeing to extend the Bush tax cuts for the richest Americans.

????We should expect him to maintain this position, even as the nation's anxiety increases with respect to this self-inflicted problem that, if handled badly, would unambiguously push the country into another costly recession; and we should expect him to prevail.

????Higher tax rates for top earners are one of the many fiscal measures that would automatically go into effect in the New Year. The projected economic impact of this fiscal cliff is a direct fiscal contraction of some 4% of GDP. There would also be negative economic and financial multiplier effects as well as inefficiencies arising from the rather blunt composition of the fiscal measures.

????In combination, the consequences would be debilitating for our slow-growing economy with high unemployment and limited policy flexibility, on account of policy interest rates that are already floored at zero. And we also should not forget that the U.S. faces headwinds from the European debt crisis, a slowing China and instability in the Middle East.

????This fiscal package was purposely designed to be extremely unpleasant for the economy – even for one that needs medium-term fiscal consolidation. Indeed, it was never meant to be implemented. Instead, its nasty potential consequences were meant to scare our politicians into agreeing to a much more sensible set of fiscal reforms.

????But the designers of this strategic approach failed to fully consider the extreme polarization besetting our political system. With each party lacking trust in the other, and with no credible instrument of cohesive enforcement, the threat has not worked. So America is now looking at the worrisome possibility of a recession in 2013, joblessness surging back above 9%, and the young and long-term unemployment languishing even more.

????President Obama is ready to compromise on a "mini bargain" to avoid this, but only if taxes on the richest Americans are allowed to go back up – thus completing the Bush era round-trip voyage for what were meant to be temporary and reversible tax cuts for the highest earners (and that have now persisted for 12 years).

????Republicans say no way. For them, any compromise must include maintaining the cuts.