????近期，中日雙方就東海的幾個小島發生糾紛，導致在華日資車企的銷售業績遭受重創。不過這一爭端讓其他外國車企坐收意外之財，尤其是韓國最大的車企——現代汽車（Hyundai）。

????由于遭到眾多中國消費者的抵制，豐田（Toyota）、本田（Honda）和日產（Nissan）分別宣布財務狀況或生產計劃遭受不利影響。而與此同時，現代則稱，第三財季在華銷售增長19%，當季利潤增長13%。從7月到9月，日系汽車在華銷售暴跌41%。

????日本的汽車產業堪稱該國經濟“皇冠上的明珠”。汽車產業咨詢公司LMC Automotive近期發布的一份報告稱，由于本次爭端，中國“不排除繼續排擠日系車企的可能，借此打擊日本經濟”。

????9月份，日本公布了一份計劃，將從私人業主手中購買其稱之為“尖閣列島”（中國稱為“釣魚島”），改變了該島的歸屬現狀，激怒了中國政府，中國各地隨之爆發各類抗議活動。

????10月31日，《金融時報》（Financial Times）刊發了一則對日產汽車首席執行官卡洛斯?戈恩的采訪。戈恩稱，中日關系破裂將延緩日產在中國市場的積極擴張計劃。他說，一家計劃于2014年在大連建成的工廠仍在按部就班地施工。但進一步投資將更為謹慎。9月，日產在華銷售下降了35%；他表示，日產可能無法實現明年3月截止的本財年年度銷售目標。

????本田在華銷售也劇降了40%。本周初，考慮到中國消費者對其采取的抵制，它下調了盈利預期。

????LMC Automotive的分析師蒂姆?鄧恩稱：“很難說抗議活動還將持續多久。”他表示，由于涉及島嶼的歷史根源“時間久遠，這次如果不是因為電視報道，不會引起這么多人的關注。這是個自我發酵的事件”。

????近幾年來，日系車企可謂一直厄運連連。在本土，它們遭受了重大自然災害的沖擊，在泰國受到洪水侵襲。在美國，豐田因所謂的質量問題引發輿論嘩然，而這一問題事后證明大部分都證據不足。

????這次中國消費者針對日本汽車的怒火讓人想起了20世紀80年代美國人對日本進口產品的廣泛抵制，這一事件促使北美的日本廠商和供應商加快了開放步伐。

????據LMC Automotive稱，日系豪華車品牌雷克薩斯（Lexus）、謳歌（Acura）和英菲尼迪（Infiniti）將奮力度過當前的難關，而寶馬（BMW）和奧迪（Audi）則趁著此次事件坐收漁翁之利。但在運動型多功能車的市場上，日系車企仍然占有優勢，因為歐洲廠商提供的競爭產品并不多。

????最近，中國開始加強了對釣魚島的沿海巡邏，同時加大了外交攻勢，意味著對日系車企來說情況不會很快改觀。在這一情況下，本田、豐田和日產可能必須謀求拓展其他市場——美國、俄羅斯、巴西或是其他發展中國家。盡管對日企而言，中國目前是最動蕩不安的市場，但沒有哪家日系車企能承受撤出中國汽車市場的代價，因為它同時也是全球發展最快的汽車市場。

????譯者：清遠

????The dispute between China and Japan over a few small islands in the East China Sea is wreaking havoc on Japanese automakers selling vehicles in China. The row has provided an unexpected dividend to non-Japanese competitors, notably Hyundai, South Korea's largest automaker.

????Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) have each announced negative impacts to financial results or vehicle production schedules as many Chinese consumers boycott their brands. Hyundai, meanwhile, said third-quarter profit rose 13% as vehicle sales in China surged 19% in the period. From July through September, sales of Japanese cars dropped a staggering 41% in China.

????Japan's auto industry is "the pearl in the crown" of the nation's economy. China "will not rule out the possibility of continuing to squeeze Japanese companies in order to hit the Japanese economy" as a result of the dispute, according to an October report of LMC Automotive Ltd., a consultancy.

????Protests in China broke out in September after Japan announced it was buying what it calls the Senkaku Islands (or Diaoyu in Chinese) from private owners, thus changing the status quo and infuriating the Chinese government.

????In an interview published Oct. 31 in the Financial Times, Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan, said a breakdown in relations between Japan and China could slow Nissan's aggressive expansion plans. He said a factory in Dalian, China scheduled for construction in 2014 remains on track. But further investments will be viewed cautiously. Nissan sales in China were off 35% in September; he said the automaker may not achieve its annual sales goal for the fiscal year ended in March.

????Earlier in the week Honda, whose China sales were down 40%, lowered its profit forecast, based on the consumer boycott of its vehicles.

????Tim Dunne, an analyst with LMC Automotive, said "it's hard to know how long the protests will continue" in China. The historical context of the disputed islands "happened so long ago, many people wouldn't be aware of it if it hadn't been put on TV. It feeds upon itself," he said.

????Japanese automakers have been struggling with remarkable bad fortune, having suffered from natural disaster in their own country, floods in Thailand -- and in the case of Toyota, an uproar over product quality in the U.S. that proved to be largely unfounded.

????The anger by Chinese consumers against Japanese cars recalls a popular backlash in the U.S. in the 1980s against Japanese imports, which helped accelerate the opening of Japanese factories and suppliers across North America.

????According to LMC Automotive, Japanese luxury brands Lexus, Acura and Infiniti will struggle as BMW and Audi pick up the slack. But the Japanese have an advantage in the sport-utility vehicle market, with the Europeans not offering much in the way of competition.

????China has lately been stepping up its maritime patrols around the disputed islands, while amping up diplomatic rhetoric, suggesting that conditions may not soon improve for Japanese automakers. In that case, Honda, Toyota and Nissan may have to look elsewhere to expand -- the U.S., Russia, Brazil or possibly in developing nations. No Japanese automaker can afford to pull the plug on China's auto market, the fastest-growing in the world– and now the most volatile.